The time of year when college football fans begin to consider how they’re going to place wagers on this season’s events has arrived, and even if you’re not putting money on the table, there’s always fun in predicting how the season will play out. Welcome to part one of my Power 4 conference win total predictions. Let’s take a look at the SEC. All win totals referenced are based on Draft Kings Sports Book.
Alabama – Under 9.5
Ten wins would be a respectable mark for Kalen DeBoer to reach in his second season at the helm in Tuscaloosa. What he was able to do at Washington was impressive, but it wasn’t against the ringer of the SEC. I expect that Georgia will cause trouble for the Tide, and between Tennessee, South Carolina, LSU, and Auburn, there will be two more losses.
Arkansas – Under 5.5
Give me a reason to believe in Arkansas. I’ll wait.
Okay I won’t wait, but until the Hogs prove that they can be more than just a flash in the pan for a game or two, I don’t expect them to perform well in SEC play. Non-conference games against Memphis and Notre Dame will not help them get more wins either.
Auburn – Under 7.5
Auburn has talent, and Hugh Freeze has done a lot of work building up the amount of talent in the locker room after cleaning up the disaster that Brian Harsin left behind. His first two seasons were hamstrung by poor quarterback play, which should improve with Jackson Arnold and Deuce Knight in the QB room. Unless their defense outperforms expectations, I don’t see Auburn reaching the 8 win mark.
Florida – Over 6.5
Billy Napier may be a controversial name in Gainesville, but there’s no denying that going 8-5 last season was a step in the right direction. Returning 7 starters on offense, including quarterback D.J. Lagway and the bulk of their offensive line, as well as 8 starters on defense means an experienced squad that’s already been through the SEC ringer.
Georgia – Over 9.5
There’s never a need to worry about defense when your head coach is Kirby Smart, so the questions rely primarily on the offensive side of the ball. Gunnar Stockton will be taking over under center, and while his playoff performance last season was less than spectacular, I expect that he will play much better this season when he’s gotten more reps.
Kentucky – Over 4.5
I think Vegas is really underestimating the Wildcats this season. Mark Stoops is always good to get his team one or two wins against better opponents to make up for a head scratching loss here or there. Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Tennessee Tech, and Vanderbilt should get them to four wins, then they only have to beat one other opponent to reach the over. That’s certainly within reason for this team.
LSU – Over 8.5
LSU’s schedule is rather favorable. They have Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M all coming to Death Valley this season, which should help them secure victories against those teams. Playing on the road in Tuscaloosa and in Oxford will present challenges, but nine or even ten wins are on the table for the Bayou Bengals.
Mississippi State – Under 3.5
If this article were titled ‘Why Mississippi State Will Be Better Than Last Year’ it would be blank. They are returning a fair amount of their best players from last season. The problem is, those players did not perform at the same level as their counterparts in other SEC schools. Any win they get against an SEC school will be an upset, and I also have them losing at home to Northern Illinois.
Missouri – Under 7.5
The losses of Brady Cook and Luther Burden will be difficult for the offense to overcome, and to make it worse, the Tigers don’t have a clear cut starter yet at quarterback. This affects practice reps and the way that quarterbacks and receivers form connections. We saw all of the trouble that it caused Auburn the past two seasons, and Missouri might be the next SEC school to catch the bug.
Oklahoma – Under 6.5
Brent Venables still has yet to prove that he can put together a team that’s better than mediocre as a head coach, so past history tells me not to trust Oklahoma. Their schedule is also a less than friendly draw, having to deal with Michigan, Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, and LSU. Their lone SEC win will come at Auburn’s expense.
Ole Miss – Over 8.5
I’m hitting the over all day on Lane Kiffin’s squad this season. They managed to dodge Texas, Alabama, and Tennessee on the regular season schedule, and a Lane Kiffin offense is one of the few tools that has been able to crack Kirby Smart’s defense. Even if they lose to Georgia, the over still hits easily. If I were to bet on only one SEC team’s win total, it would be Ole Miss. The over is a lock.
South Carolina – Over 7.5
LaNorris Sellers was reportedly offered $8 million to leave South Carolina and go elsewhere, but the Gamecocks still have him on their roster. Clemson is a winnable game for them now that the Tigers are not the powerhouse they used to be. Shane Beamer has unfinished business against Alabama after last season’s gut wrenching loss in Tuscaloosa, and this time the game is at home.
Tennessee – Over 8.5
Naysayers will assert that Tennessee no longer has Nico Iamaleava on their roster, who used to be a highy touted recruit. I say it doesn’t matter. Josh Heupel has consistently been able to develop quarterbacks at an elite level and the trend won’t stop now. If Tennessee’s defense remains solid, and it should, then Tennessee has the potential to be a ten win team, but I still don’t see them getting over the hump and making it to the SEC championship.
Texas – Over 9.5
The Longhorns fielded an elite team in 2024, reaching the SEC championship during their first season in the league. Their only losses were to Georgia (twice) and Ohio State, and the only other team that gave them a run for their money was Arizona State on a day when Cam Skattebo was playing the best football of his life. With Arch Manning under center I expect the quarterback play to be an improvement from what we saw with Quinn Ewers. More precision, better timing, and a rematch win against the Buckeyes are likely on the docket for the Longhorns.
Texas A&M – Under 8.5
Vegas seems to really like Texas A&M at 8.5, but in an SEC that I think will be very polarized from top to bottom this year I struggle to see the Aggies make 9 wins. I have Notre Dame, Florida, Texas, and LSU all chalked up as losses and I could also see them potentially falling to South Carolina. The Aggies are my under lock for the SEC.
Vanderbilt – Under 5.5
This isn’t your grandfather’s Vanderbilt that won somewhere between zero and two games per season. Vandy will win some non-conference games this season, including at Virginia Tech, and I have them pulling off a stunner in Neyland to close the season against the Vols. Even with all of that, I still only have Vanderbilt at five wins on the season.
Championship Prediction
The SEC is a gauntlet for its members, and a lot of the win totals predictions simply comes from how they drew their schedule. Ole Miss got a great draw. Oklahoma drew the short end of the stick. In the era of super conferences, that’s the way the cookie crumbles. My final prediction: we’ll see an SEC Championship between Texas and Ole Miss.
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