Not satisfied with the amount of paper my SEC win totals predictions are going to make you? Well, you’re in luck! The Big Ten presents the opportunity for you, my gambling brethren, to place eighteen more win total bets prior to this college football season. Welcome to part two of my Power 4 conference win total predictions. All win totals referenced are based on Draft Kings Sports Book
Illinois – Over 7.5
Bret Bielema must have cried with glee when the Big Ten schedule was released. Ducking Penn State, Michigan, and Oregon will be a huge help for the Illini. Ohio State and Indiana will hand Illinois a couple of losses, but it’s a long way from keeping this team from hitting the over. Bielema has the Illini trending upward and I expect that to continue.
Indiana – Over 8.5
If you thought Curt Cignetti was done after year one in Bloomington, you’re sorely mistaken. After bringing the Hoosiers to the playoffs last year, the Hoosiers are the hunted now. It is a new position for Indiana to be in, so I don’t think they’ll match last season’s win total. Oregon and Penn State will be their toughest tests, leaving one more loss available while allowing the over to hit.
Iowa – Under 6.5
I’m biased on this one. I will pick the hoks’ opponent to win in every coin flip game. That said, I’d rather be forced to watch hallmark movies for 48 hours straight than their pitiful excuse of an offense. The happiest people in Kinnick are the ones who sit on the east side of the stadium, when they do the wave. That’s only because they’re turning away from their own team.
Maryland – Under 4.5
Maryland got a pretty weak draw for the Big Ten schedule this year. The best opponents on their schedule should be Illinois and Indiana. The problem for the Terps is that there really just isn’t any reason to believe in them right now. Until they prove that they can compete with the top dogs and the rising powers in the league, I have to assume that they’re gonna suck.
Michigan – Over 8.5
Michigan didn’t get too difficult of a draw, and the only one of the top dogs in the conference that they have to face is Ohio State. Until Ryan Day can prove that he has any kind of ability to beat Michigan, I’m gonna continue to believe that Michigan will win The Game. Throw in a couple of losses to teams that are marginally worse than Michigan and they’re still a nine or ten win team.
Michigan State – Over 5.5
Michigan State has become the most perpetually mid team in the Big Ten, so naturally the assumption is that they will go 6-6. After analyzing their schedule and breaking it down game by game, that’s the exact conclusion that I came to. The Spartans are OK, no more, no less.
Minnesota – Over 7.5
My gut tells me that PJ Fleck is due for another really good season in the Twin Cities, but playing at Ohio State and at Oregon is a tall task for any team. They’ll still lose two or three games that they should win, but they’ll also likely get a win that they shouldn’t. They’ll have a good season, just not a great season.
Nebraska – Over 7.5
I didn’t expect Draft Kings to have Nebraska’s win total as high as they do, which makes it tough to pick. Now that Matt Rhule is getting his pieces in place in Lincoln, it should be fair to expect that the Huskers take another leap forward. They’ll reach the 8 win mark when they end their losing streak against that black and gold team with the pitiful offense.
Northwestern – Under 3.5
Northwestern is bizarrely bipolar in recent history when it comes to how their football team plays year in and year out. One year they can have two wins, then the next year they’ll return fourteen starters, bring in nobody from the transfer portal, and squeeze together ten wins. I don’t see that becoming a longer standing pattern. They’re gonna be awful this year.
Ohio State – Under 10.5
The popular pick would be to have the reigning national champion on the over, but the Buckeyes lost a lot of players to the NFL after last year’s run in the playoffs. Until Ryan Day can start beating Michigan, The Game gets chalked up as a loss, and they also have Penn State and Texas on their schedule. I don’t see the Buckeyes walking away from both of those games with a win, so I’m capping them at ten wins.
Oregon – Over 10.5
The Ducks are living up to their name and ducking Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. I fully expect them to lose to Penn State on the road, but I don’t see any other losses on the schedule for Oregon. Dan Lanning won’t have the same kind of experience that he’s had under center in recent years now that Dillon Gabriel is gone, but they’re loaded with talent in Eugene, and whoever wins their QB battle will be surrounded with talent.
Penn State – Over 10.5
The only loss that I have for Penn State this regular season is when they take a trip to Columbus, and if that game was in Happy Valley I would be favoring the Nittany Lions. They host the Oregon in week five, which will probably be the Ducks’ only loss of the season. In fact, before their week ten matchup against Ohio State, I expect that they will either be the top ranked team in the country or only behind another team that is undefeated up to that point. The Nittany Lions are my over lock for the Big Ten
Purdue – Over 2.5
Purdue may not be a particularly good football team, but reaching three wins should not be considered unlikely for the Boilermakers. I’ll give them wins against Ball State and Southern Illinois, and from there they only have to beat one opponent for the entire rest of the season to hit the over. I’ll give them that win when they play Northwestern.
Rutgers – Under 5.5
Since joining the Big Ten, Rutgers has evolved from being the laughingstock of the Big Ten that nobody was really sure why they were there to being slightly better than the laughingstock, getting mostly ignored, and still nobody knows why they’re there. They won’t be as bad as Purdue or Northwestern, but they aren’t going bowling this holiday season.
UCLA – Under 5.5
UCLA may have gotten Nico Iamaleava to play quarterback for them, but that may not be as good of a thing as many Bruins fans hope. The reason he ended up there was mostly out of desperation after Tennessee didn’t give him all of the money that he wanted. With Iamaleava’s ego, there may be some locker room problems for UCLA. Outside of bringing in Iamaleava, UCLA hasn’t done anything particularly remarkable this offseason. They didn’t give much reason to think they’d be any better than last year.
USC – Over 7.5
I think this is the season that we finally see Lincoln Riley turn USC into a real beast in the Big Ten, and by the end of the season they’ll be firing on all cylinders. Jayden Maiava is a legit talented quarterback for the Trojans, and he’s sitting behind an offensive line that should be elite this year, perhaps even giving Notre Dame pass rushers a run for their money.
Washington – Under 7.5
In the post-Kalen DeBoer era, Washington screams ‘seven win team’ at me. They have decent talent, but not the kind of elite talent that they had two years ago when Michael Penix Jr was in the pocket and Rome Odunze was carving up defenses with elite route running. They’ll win most of the games that they’re supposed to, but Oregon, Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio State will prove to be too much for the Huskies to handle.
Wisconsin – Under 5.5
The Badgers have what I believe to be the most difficult schedule in the Big Ten, and the program has yet to convince me that they’ve been able to adapt to Luke Fickell’s style of football, so getting bowl eligible will be a tall task for Wisconsin. They have to go up against Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, and Illinois this season, and that gauntlet will wear this team down very significantly.
Championship Prediction
One of the Big Ten’s quirks is that because of its sheer size, everybody is going do dodge at least one of the major powers in their schedule, and typically they’ll dodge more than one of them. The top dogs do all play each other this year though, but I think they will handle business against each other. Big Ten Championship prediction: Penn State vs Oregon rematch.
