Hey there, Red Raider Nation. If you’re like me, you’ve spent the offseason doomscrolling transfer portal news, clinging to spring game highlights like gospel, and wondering: could this actually be the year?
Well, I’m here to tell you—yes. Not only will Texas Tech win the Big 12 in 2025, but they’re also making the College Football Playoff. Sound crazy? Maybe to Baylor fans still living off that 2021 sugar high, or TCU fans pretending 2022 wasn’t a one-hit wonder. But let’s break it down.
The Best Transfer Class in the Nation—Yes, THE Best
Joey McGuire and staff didn’t just hit the portal—they owned it. According to On3 Sports, Texas Tech landed the #1 transfer portal class in the nation, outpacing teams like LSU, Oregon, and even Coach Prime’s Colorado hype train.
Here are a few names that should terrify opposing defensive and offensive coordinators:
- David Bailey (Edge, Transfer from Stanford) – David brings elite athleticism and proven production at linebacker after leading Stanford in tackles last season. His ability to disrupt both the run and pass game will be a big key this season for the Red Raiders
- Terrence Carter JR. (TE, Transfer from Louisiana) – Terrance Carter Jr. joins Texas Tech after earning First-Team All–Sun Belt honors at Louisiana in 2024. He caught 48 passes for 689 yards, logged four touchdowns, and graded out in the top six nationally among FBS tight ends per Pro Football Focus. He will have a big task filling Jalin Conyers’ shoes, but should turn out to be a massive piece for this new Texas Tech offense.
- Quinten Joyner (RB, Transfer from USC) –Quinten Joyner, the former four-star running back from USC, brings elite burst and vision to Texas Tech’s backfield at a crucial time. With Tahj Brooks off to the NFL, Joyner’s arrival gives the Red Raiders a dynamic, home-run threat who can keep the ground game lethal in 2025.
New Coordinators, New Attitude
Joey McGuire didn’t just upgrade the roster—he upgraded the brain trust.
Mack Leftwich takes over the offense after a breakout year as OC at Texas State, where his 2024 offense averaged 40 points and 477 yards per game, one of the most explosive attacks in the country. A former college quarterback and rising play-calling mind, Leftwich brings a modern, uptempo scheme that perfectly complements Behren Morton’s skillset and opens up space for stars like Reggie Virgil (4-Star Transfer out of Miami of Ohio) and Joyner to thrive.
On the defensive side, Shiel Wood joins the staff after serving as DC at Houston, where he turned a struggling unit into a respectable Big 12 defense that ranked 4th in the conference in sacks (31) and allowed just 123 rushing yards per game in 2024. Wood’s defense thrives on aggression and disruption—exactly what Tech has lacked in recent years, and with the transfer portal additions that Joey McGuire and Texas Tech have added to look to be a Top 10 Defense team
McGuire brought these guys in not just for their résumés, but because they fit the culture: high-energy, player-first, relentless in scheme and mentality. These aren’t plug-and-play hires—they’re foundational pieces for a championship run.
Schedule and Stats: The Path Is Clear
Let’s talk math. Texas Tech finished 8–5 in 2024 with a net +4.3 scoring margin, despite QB injuries and inconsistent red zone play. But here’s the kicker: the Red Raiders return 82% of defensive production, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, and the offense is about to be turbocharged.
The 2025 schedule also plays into Tech’s hands:
- No Colorado. No TCU. No Baylor.
- Home games against UAPB, Oregon State, Oklahoma State, and BYU.
- Road tests at Kansas State and Arizona State, while also having to go to Utah to start conference play and West Virginia to end conference play.
Texas Tech has a prime opportunity to control its own destiny and make it to Arlington, hopefully playing for a spot in the Big 12 Championship.
Why the Big 12 Is Ripe for the Taking
Oklahoma and Texas are gone—good riddance. RIP to OU’s playoff hopes now that they’re about to get weekly SEC reality checks. What’s left in the Big 12 is a wide-open field begging for a new top dog. Utah? Please—they looked tough in the Pac-12 retirement league, but this isn’t Corvallis or Tempe. Kansas State? Scrappy, sure, but they don’t have anywhere near the raw talent Texas Tech is rolling out. UCF and Cincinnati? Still in Power Five orientation. Colorado? They had two Heisman finalists and still couldn’t sniff the conference title—Coach Prime’s more concerned with clicks than wins, and that defense couldn’t stop a pillow fight. As for BYU, one magical season doesn’t make a program—just ask TCU how that story ends.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, is in its third year under McGuire, with one of the most experienced coaching staffs in the league and a team full of grown men transfers hungry to win now.
The Big 12 title game is the floor. Playoff? No National Championship. That’s the ceiling—and it’s within reach.
Here’s What the Haters Will Say to Persuade You That This Is All Talk.
- “But Tech hasn’t won 10 games since 2008!”
That may be true, but the momentum Joey McGuire has brought to this program is undeniable — he’s doing things we haven’t seen since the days of Mike Leach (RIP). - “They crumble when the pressure’s on.” But these transfers picked Tech because they see a program with grit, determination, and a hunger to prove the doubters wrong.
- “Still feels like a long shot.”
So did Arizona State last year, as well as Boise State. So did TCU in 2022. This is how college football works now with the new 12-team Playoff.
Final Thoughts: Saddle Up, It’s Happening
It’s June, and optimism is free. But this isn’t just offseason noise. The Red Raiders have the talent, the schedule, and the chip on their shoulder to make 2025 their breakout year.
Bookmark this article. Send it to your Baylor cousin when they start 3–5. And when Tech is storming the field in Arlington, just remember: we told you first.