The wild west, or thanks to conference realignment, the wild coast to coast of college football has become the most difficult conference to predict win totals. Anybody can beat anybody on any given day, and any team can surprise with a roster that nobody saw coming that comes together and beats the tar out of the competition. Welcome to part three of my Power 4 conference win total predictions. All win totals referenced are based on Draft Kings Sports Book.
Arizona – Over 4.5
The Wildcats will be lacking Tetairoa McMillan, but they’ll snag a few non-conference wins, which includes the wheat munchers in Manhattan even though they’re technically both Big 12 opponents. Big 12 play still won’t be friendly to them, but they’ll still grab a couple wins amongst the chaos, which will get them to five.
Arizona State – Over 8.5
Arizona State will be legit again this year, make no mistake about it. Kenny Dillingham proved his worth as a coach with the Sun Devils, turning Cam Skattebo into a terrifying machine in the backfield when he used to be a nobody out of Sacramento State. They may not have Skattebo anymore, but we know this staff can develop players. Sam Leavitt is set to be the Big 12’s next freak of nature under center.
Baylor – Over 7.5
For some reason it seems popular on social media to pick the Bears to win eleven games right now, and while I’m giving them the over, there’s no way I’m giving them that many. They’re good, but not that good. SMU and Arizona State are losses for sure, and I’m writing down road trips to Fort Worth and Stillwater as losses as well. Baylor is better, but susceptible to upset losses.
BYU – Over 7.5
Whatever clowns at Draft Kings listed BYU at 7.5 should be fired because this may be the single easiest lock to pick of all time. They return a great deal of talent from last year, and the way they’ve gotten players out of the transfer portal is reminiscent of stealing candy from a baby. Last year they missed the Big 12 championship, but they will contend yet again.
Cincinnati – Under 6.5
Does anybody actually know what Cincinnati allegedly contributes to the Big 12? I don’t. Their fanbase doesn’t even have a lot of good twitter accounts, and they’re still more talented at that than they are at football. They’ll get a couple non-conference wins against weak opponents, and maybe snag a Big 12 win, but the idea of them going over 6.5 is a joke, not a bet. They’re my under lock for the Big 12.
Colorado – Under 6.5
Colorado lost the talent that they had in Travis Hunter, and Shedeur and Shilo Sanders and replaced it with…well nobody as good as any of the three, and Shedeur was already overrated. Thank you NFL draft for proving what I’d been saying for months. The flashiness of Coach Prime is going to wear off on the few people that it hasn’t worn off on yet. Colorado won’t be very good this year. They’re not going bowling. Colorado fans will call for a real head coach in Boulder by week 7.
Houston – Under 6.5
If Cincinnati wasn’t such an easy lock at under 6.5, I’d be putting Houston in that column. Houston will improve from where they’ve been in the Big 12, though that may be simply due to a couple of other Big 12 teams regressing to the mean and allowing them opportunity for a couple of extra wins.
Iowa State – Over 7.5
The Cyclones return a sizeable portion of what was their best team ever last year. And that best team ever had so many defensive injuries that would make Kirby Smart retire if it happened to the Bulldogs. The defense will be stronger, the offensive line will be tougher, and the team as a whole will be better. They won’t be quite as lucky though. They’ll be great, but not eleven win great.
Kansas – Over 6.5
Turning Jayhawk teams into moderately coherent units that are slightly better than average seems to be Lance Leipold’s bread and butter. And it also happens to be more successful than pretty much any Kansas coach before him. He still isn’t pulling the recruits though to form a truly dominant team. They’ll succumb to some of the other Big 12 teams amidst the chaos.
Kansas State – Under 8.5
I’m giving K-State seven wins this season, and considering how much I despise the purple kitties, seven is a generous amount for me to give them. In all honesty, I don’t think they’re any better than being a seven win team anyway, especially with what I think the top few teams in the league will do. They’ll probably lose a mid tier bowl game in the post season too.
Oklahoma State – Over 4.5
The Pokes performing as badly as they did last year had to be a fluke. Mike Gundy might not be coaching elite teams every year, but he’s consistently put respectable squads on the field regardless of who he’s recruited. They’ll start climbing back out of the hole they were in last year and improve to mediocrity for this season. In order to do better than that they’ll need someone on their roster to unexplainably become elite.
TCU – Under 6.5
They’ll win games that they shouldn’t and lose games that they shouldn’t. TCU is going to be chaos in purple this year, but there are more losses on their schedule than wins this season for the frogs. The litmus test for TCU is going to be their game against North Carolina, who will be a wild card of their own this season in the ACC.
Texas Tech – Over 8.5
While social media is going bananas over Baylor for no reason, Texas Tech will be an incredibly difficult team for their Big 12 foes to handle. Add returning experience at quarterback and one of the best transfer classes in the country and Texas Tech will easily bowl over the 8.5 win mark. Tech fans should be more concerned with whether or not they’ll make the Big 12 championship this season, because it’s within reach.
UCF – Over 5.5
Are the Knights fans ready for another year of mediocrity? Earth to Orlando, Scott Frost is not going to magically fix your problems. He already proved in Lincoln that he can’t do that. They also happened to lose R.J. Harvey, who was far and away their best player. It really wasn’t even close last year. They’ll still be better than the bottom dwellers in the Big 12, but they’ll barely claw their way into a bowl game.
Utah – Under 7.5
Where exactly did Vegas get the idea that Utah was going to be significantly better than the laughingstock that they were last year? Kyle Whittingham seemed disinterested on the sideline in 2024, and I doubt that he’ll be any more invested in it this season. They’re also hemorrhaging talent through the transfer portal and through graduation. Add to that that they don’t have Cam Rising at all now, instead of the 3 games a year he wasn’t injured from the last 27 and a half seasons that it seems he’s been playing for them.
West Virginia – Over 5.5
West Virginia always has enough talent and moonshine in Morgantown to create a halfway believable football team, so they’ll get some wins. With a raucous crowd in Morgantown, they’ll be burning couches while the sports books are burning their accounting books. That is, of course after you bet the over on them like I suggest.
Final Prediction
The Big 12 will be its usual chaotic self this year, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t obvious candidates to make it to the championship game this year. I have Arizona State, BYU, and Texas Tech all running roughshod over the rest of the league, each acquiring only one conference loss apiece. When the Big 12 arrives in Arlington later this fall it will highlight two of these teams.
