By Jake Russell
@oreojakesters
The beauty of college football is the unpredictability and the chaos that occurs, especially now with the more playoff spots up for grabs. But you know what everyone is still intent on making in the most unpredictable time of year? That’s right- predictions!
In each of the power conferences, there’s pretty much an established take on the top and the bottom, and then in the meaty middle it’s a matter of which flavor you like better between several teams that have some similar outlook this year. It’s merely a matter of which one you prefer. Let’s take a look at the power conferences and see which programs are roughly a matter of preference given their narratives.
Auburn, Florida, or Oklahoma?
In the SEC, it feels like everyone has the “that schedule is a schedule straight out of the depths of the underworld,” narrative, but none quite like Auburn, Florida, and Oklahoma. Florida had the same one last year where everyone pre-fired Billy Napier, but solely off of the athletic ceiling of DJ Lagway saving his season, they’re right back there in the “well, Lagway may be talented enough to overcome it again!” conversation where they win games that they shouldn’t. It’s a gauntlet of @ LSU, @ Miami, Texas, @ Texas A&M, Georgia, and Ole Miss on the schedule this year. If they survive that gauntlet, Lagway is everything you believed he could be.
Auburn and Florida are in similar spots with their schedules but are also coming off of disaster seasons with head coaches acting in desperation mode through the portal in Hugh Freeze and Brent Venables. Freeze took Jackson Arnold from Venables and is hoping that the top recruit just had a year where every receiver with a pulse got injured and can QB whisper him into what he should’ve been, and Venables is hoping taking the top QB from the portal John Mateer and his OC unlocks an offense after Venables has notoriously only been a defense-first guy on the Clemson championship teams. Their September 20th game in Norman may decide the entire fate of the programs.
The Pick: Oklahoma.
Illinois or Nebraska?
In the B1G, the conversation is that it’s Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon at the top, Michigan in the “we have a top freshman talent and got ranked!” zone, and a middle of “who could make the leap?” teams. Illinois is riding the highs of the Cheez-it Citrus Bowl brawl(?) win over South Carolina last year where suddenly a team that edged out Purdue is bringing back Luke Altmeyer and around 80% of production; we know what they are, it’s a matter of if Altmeyer takes them to the level of being this year’s Illinois and we view them on a tier higher. Nebraska is hoping for the “Matt Rhule year 3 bump!” and that Dylan Raiola looks more like the Mahomes doppelganger and not the quarterback of the 103rd ranked offense that flamed out over a home win against Colorado. Raiola was a true freshman last year and will have receiving help this year, but Nebraska has seen ghosts for nearly three decades now.
The Pick: Illinois
Arizona State or Texas Tech?
The only major conference that has had 5 different champions the last 5 years is even more chaotic this year, with every team practically projected to win 5-10 games. It’s absolute chaos where everyone eats everyone. Just take a look at Arizona State, projected to finish last in 2024 and nearly beating Texas in the College Football Playoff, or Oklahoma State, going from playing in the conference championship to 3-9 with no conference wins and an entire staff fired.
Ever since Texas and Oklahoma left the conference, the mantle has been up for grabs as the “face of the conference” and the top dog. The test case is going to be whether or not you prefer the style of program-building like Arizona State, where Kenny Dillingham, the entire same coaching staff, and Sam Leavitt are all running it back as a known quantity and reigning champ, or Texas Tech, a team that went from being in the middle of Lubbock to suddenly having a $55 million oil money roster trying to buy their way to a title in this new era. It may not even be either of those in the conference of chaos, but your preference in team-building through certainty or potential is put to the test.
The Pick: Arizona State
Louisville, SMU, or Georgia Tech?
Clemson, an untrustworthy Miami and coach Cristobal, and who else in the ACC?
If it’s Louisville, you truly believe in Jeff Brohm elevating all ceilings. He’s taken all of the ingredients no one has wanted like a Chopped and has over 25 transfers every season to get 9 to 10 wins with ease. The problem is that this will be his biggest project yet banking on the portal, and you’re investing in Miller Moss who largely was underwhelming despite the USC win. Maybe Isaac Brown goes off this year, but it’s Brohm hitting the talent jackpot again that you believe in and not a Mike Norvell situation.
SMU is the “well, they got LUCKY making the playoff last year” team after having an easy ACC road only to get pummeled by Penn State in subzero weather as our last memory of them. Yes, Kevin Jennings struggled to throw the ball forward with frozen fingertips, and they banked a lot on their defensive front that is no longer there, but Lashlee just led them to their best season since 1982, and Jennings finally won’t start as the backup. He’ll get plenty of opportunities to show if last year wasn’t a fluke with a season against Miami, Louisville, and Clemson this year on a tougher path.
Georgia Tech has just been everyone’s darling because of Haynes King and the smashmouth football of angry, neglected 3-stars and our lasting memory of them winning the Ireland game against Florida State to start the year and the 44-42 8 OT loss to Georgia to end the year. Haynes King and Brent Key are just the old school fan favorites that play a style that won’t back down from a fight from anyone in the conference with an easier schedule and hopefully better additions on defense. The 7-6 team from last year just had a lot of great memories that left an impression.
The Pick: Louisville