Before you settle into your seat, let’s get one thing straight: Week 1 is when legends are born…and favorites get embarrassed. Here are five underdogs that could make headlines—complete with betting lines and why they might just pull it off.
Florida State (+13.5) over No. 8 Alabama (–13.5)
- Line: Alabama –13.5 (–110); FSU +13.5 (–110). Over/Under: 50.5 points
- This is the ultimate shake-up game. Alabama is riding a long streak of season-opening dominance, but FSU’s burning to flip the script. If the Seminoles can strike early, this line could evaporate quickly.
- Why it matters: A shocker here would set the entire playoff discussion on fire before the first whistle.
UCLA (+6.5) over Utah (–6.5)
Line: Utah –6.5, O/U 51.5
Utah is tough at home, but we think UCLA has the speed to break this open. If the Bruins can hit a couple of chunk plays early, Utah might not have the firepower to keep up. This spread is begging to be broken, and we’re calling it: UCLA stuns them.
Miami (OH) (+17.5) over Wisconsin (-17.5)
Line: Wisconsin –17.5, O/U 39.5 | Moneyline: Miami +740, Wisconsin –1250
Wisconsin has talent, but their offense just doesn’t scare anyone right now. I think Miami (OH) can grind this game down, keep it low scoring, and if they’re within a touchdown late, watch out. A MAC team toppling a Big Ten program in Week 1? That would be sweet.
Toledo (+8.5) over Kentucky (–8.5)
Line: Kentucky –8.5, O/U 48 | Moneyline: Toledo +235
This is my favorite Group of 5 upset pick. Toledo isn’t just a random MAC team—they’re the conference favorite and come in with momentum after knocking off Mississippi State last year and winning a six-overtime bowl over Pitt. We think QB Tucker Gleason and the Rockets’ offense can score enough to put Kentucky on the ropes.
Stony Brook (+18.5) over San Diego State
Okay, this one’s bold—but that’s what makes Week 1 fun. San Diego State is a big favorite, but they’re coming off a rough 2024, and we think they’re vulnerable. If Stony Brook can keep it close into the second half, the pressure flips—and suddenly, the impossible looks very possible.
Week 1 is why we love college football. Nobody knows anything yet, and that’s when the craziest stuff happens. Maybe Alabama wakes up flat and Florida State pounces. Maybe a MAC team like Miami (OH) or Toledo makes the Big Ten or SEC look silly. Maybe Texas walks into Columbus and reminds everyone they’re really the No. 1 team.
The point is, don’t get too comfortable. Every year, somebody walks into Saturday night thinking they had an easy win lined up—and walks out a meme. That’s what makes this sport so perfect.