Auburn over Baylor (Fri., Aug. 29 — Waco)
Yes, it’s a Friday night in Waco, and yes, Hugh Freeze is openly flirting with a “QB platoon.” But the headline is simple: Auburn imported five-star talent in Jackson Arnold (OU transfer) and can lean on NFL-sized targets like Cam Coleman. Freeze has hinted all three QBs could play, which actually stresses a Baylor defense that has to prep for different styles on a short week. And the market agrees—Auburn opened a small road favorite.
The why: multiple QB looks + superior perimeter talent vs. a Bears team still patching holes = enough explosives to win a one-score road game.
Texas over Ohio State (Sat., Aug. 30 — Columbus)
Arch Manning finally has the keys, backed by a veteran, nasty front seven (hello, Anthony Hill Jr.) to make Julian Sayin’s first college start as hostile as 100,000 scarlet shirts can be. Ohio State is terrific, but they’re breaking in a brand-new QB and re-shuffled tackles; Texas brings an SEC-caliber defense and a run duo (Wisner/Baxter) that travels. Books have OSU a slight favorite (~-2.5), but live underdogs with the better D and the experienced play-caller? I’ll take Texas outright.
The why: defensive continuity + Arch’s play-action off a legit run game against a rookie QB behind reworked tackles.
LSU over Clemson (Sat., Aug. 30 — Clemson)
You’re picking against Death Valley and a Heisman buzz QB in Cade Klubnik? Yep. It’s a “why LSU can win,” not “will be favored.” Garrett Nussmeier is playing point guard to a deep skill group, and Brian Kelly’s camp notes were all about a suddenly grown-up defense. Klubnik’s elite, but his last two season openers were rocky; if LSU steals two possessions (special teams or fourth-down stops), their offense can finish it. Clemson is a short favorite (~-3.5/-4), but the path is real.
The why: veteran QB play + turnover chances vs. an offense that’s still cleaning up Week-1 mistakes historically under Klubnik.
Notre Dame over Miami (Sun., Aug. 31 — Miami Gardens)
Freshman CJ Carr got the nod, and Marcus Freeman doesn’t need him to be Dan Marino—just on-schedule. The Irish bring a top-tier run game (Jeremiyah Love) and a defensive line that came out of camp meaner than a South Beach parking meter. Books say ND by a field goal; the Irish’s trench edge and special-teams floor travel on Sunday night TV.
The why: run game + front-seven depth mitigates freshman jitter; ND wins the hidden yards and the fourth quarter.
TCU over North Carolina (Mon., Sep. 1 — Chapel Hill)
Josh Hoover returns after a record 2024, while UNC enters the Bill Belichick era breaking in Gio Lopez at QB. The Horned Frogs’ offense is continuity; Carolina’s is transition. Vegas moved this to TCU -3.5 on the road, and that tracks: Hoover to a deep WR room against a Tar Heel front seven still finding itself. Prime-time road win vibes.
The why: established QB play + explosive options vs. a debuting staff/QB combo.
Lock of the Week: Alabama -13.5 at Florida State (Sat., Aug. 30 — 3:30 ET, Doak)
Spreads drift, but the story doesn’t: Kalen DeBoer + Ryan Grubb + Ty Simpson is a plug-and-play points machine. Even with RB Jam Miller sidelined and captain DT Tim Keenan III out, Bama’s depth is absurd, and Grubb’s system designs free yards for a wideout room that can flat run. FSU’s Tommy Castellanos is a live-wire runner, but even the Noles’ own folks admit the OL cohesion and WR reliability are question marks right now. That’s not the combo you want against Grubb’s tempo and a Tide pass rush that will squeeze contain and force long yardage. Tide by two+ scores.
Receipts you can point to:
Game/time & neutral-ish hype confirmed; current market around Alabama -13.5. Ty Simpson named the starter two weeks ago. FSU is rolling with Thomas “Tommy” Castellanos and still sorting OL/WR reliability. Bama injuries: Jam Miller (out), Tim Keenan III (out), but Tide depth remains strong.
The why: proven QB/OC fit + superior depth vs. an opponent with real protection/WR uncertainty. Alabama’s script drives an early lead; FSU’s chase mode feeds the margin.
Quick Line Check (as of Aug. 28)
Auburn at Baylor: Tigers a short road fave. Texas at Ohio State: OSU around -2.5. LSU at Clemson: Clemson -3.5/-4. Upset alert is legit. Notre Dame at Miami: Irish -2.5. TCU at UNC: Frogs -3 to -3.5. Alabama at FSU: Tide -13.5. Lock.