Week 3 Recap: 2-3 (11-9 overall)
UGA -3.5 – L (won by 3)
USF +17.5 – L (obliterated)
ND -6.5 – L (gross)
LSU -7.5 – W
GT +3.5 – W
The haters said Tennessee would cover. The haters said USF was overhyped and Miami was the real deal. They said Notre Dame can’t get it done against good teams. Turns out the haters were right. Honestly a great call by the haters. New week, New Opportunity. Let’s lock in and get more than 2 wins above .500.
Scroll to the bottom for Weeks 4s picks. Scroll slower for my analysis of each pick.
17Texas Tech At 16Utah (-3.5)
Let’s start off with the potential game of the week in the Big 12 (although Baylor ASU could give this one a run for their money). Texas Tech has dominated the first three weeks of their schedule and so far have lived up to the hype surrounding them entering the year. Utah has exceeded most people’s expectations and their defense looks as lethal as ever. I am not completely sold on Devon Dampier yet and I think how he responds to adversity in this game will determine the outcome. He is yet to throw an interception this year, but I think that may change on Saturday. How will he respond? I think it will shake his confidence and allow Tech to keep this game close enough to cover. There is a reason Utah was not as highly regarded coming into the season, and while there are always surprises, they will show why in this one. Red Raiders +3.5.
Tulane at 13Ole Miss (-10.5)
Tulane, although 3-0, has started the year up and down and takes on a solid SEC opponent in this one. Ole Miss has squeaked by against two SEC opponents in the last two weeks, but sometimes thats all that matters. As this line moves more and more towards Tulane, I start to like Ole Miss more and more. I think Tulane is solid and will compete in this one for a while, but I think the talent of the Rebels will overwhelm them in the end. As of now the line is -10.5 and I like it there, but will love it even more if it gets below 10. Look for late points from Ole Miss to cover, we know Lane Kiffin knows the spread. Ole Miss -10.5
Florida at 4Miami (-7.5)
Miami has passed two tests through three games this year. Top 6 opponent coming off a Natty appearance? No problem. Top 20 team who took down 2 ranked teams already? Smoked ’em like a black and mild. Now they get a team desperate for a win – or at least a coach that is desperate for one. Fading Florida has never felt easier, they just can’t get out of their own way and looked outmatched for the most part against LSU and even USF. Carson Beck will continue to get the job done in this one and remember, its still Hurricane Season. I have learned my lesson fading this team – Miami -7.5.
Arizona State at Baylor (O/U 60.5)
I am going to switch things up with these last two picks and throw in some over/under picks. I wanted to include this game but I did not want to have to pick for or against my team in Baylor. What I do know is that both of these offenses can be potent and Baylor’s defense has been porous so far. The over has his hit in both of Baylors P4 games and I don’t trust their defense to get a ton of stops against the Sun Devils. I still think Baylor can win, but I am not banking on it. All I know is Baylor avoids punting like the plague and if their defense continues to give up a ton of points, Baylor will go for every 4th down possible. Over 60.5 is the play.
21Michigan at Nebraska (O/U 46.5)
In the two games these teams have played actual opponents, the games have gone under. Bryce Underwood is still getting acclimated to the game and has already struggled in a hostile road matchup – he is staring down the barrel at another one. Patrick Mahomes – shoot I mean Dylan Raiola does not impress me overall and I think this will be peak Big 10 football. Low scoring, pounding the rock, and not giving up big plays will be the theme in this one. Taking unders isn’t always fun, but maybe place this one and don’t even watch, hopefully you won’t miss anything. Under 46.5.
Final Picks:
Texas Tech +3.5
Miami -7.5
Ole Miss -10.5
Baylor/ASU Over 60.5
Michigan/Nebraska Under 46.5
Written By Blake Mire @BlakeMire on X
This is not financial advice, tail or fade at your own risk.