Jake Russell
@oreojakesters
It’s been a rough time for the spreads thus far in college football because the powerhouses are exhibiting as little power as ever thus far (unless you’re Ohio State!). Everything we knew about the elite quarterbacks this offseason has just been wrong. This time we’re just going to go back to basics and pick what REALLY matters as Brian Kelly will tell you in the midst of his offensive struggles: WINNING the game! These are the winners and a lock this week.
Utah vs Texas Tech: Utah
Both teams are looking to make a statement here. The early 10 AM local kickoff is going to be brutal in a home environment for Texas Tech who has just pulverized UAPB and Oregon State and will get their first test and it’s going to go against Devon Dampier, who would be a Heisman frontrunner if not in Utah, and an offensive line that can truly make a difference against the Tech front 7 that has been the best in the nation. Utah wins, but Tech will put up a fight in what’s a slugfest.
Auburn at Oklahoma: Oklahoma
Both of these teams were on the same collision course this year: desperate coaches on the hot seat with brutal SEC schedules, quarterbacks in new faces looking to make the leap, and trying to revitalize themselves as name brands. Hugh Freeze has taken Jackson Arnold to what he should have been as a prospect so far with a 3-0 start and a win at Baylor, meanwhile John Mateer and Oklahoma might have the greatest resume so far on the offensive side of the ball as this year’s “he’s got some Baker Mayfield in him” and a win over Michigan. It’s in Norman, they OU coordinators will know Arnold’s game from last year as a transfer, and Mateer should be the Heisman frontrunner with a gunslinging arm in what’s hopefully a fun shootout.
Michigan at Nebraska: Michigan
Ironically, without Sherrone Moore, Michigan’s offense looked better than it ever had last week with the interim coach Biff Poggi filling in and unlocking Bryce Underwood, who is essentially this year’s Dylan Raiola as he takes on Dylan Raiola. Even though it’s in Lincoln, and no one needs a signature win more than Nebraska, they’ve never proven to us otherwise that they can put up points in games where it matters and this is exactly the game Nebraska loses.
Missouri -6.5 vs. Kansas
Kansas has been rolling when Jalon Daniels has been on the field, and the door has opened up for Eli Drinkwitz and Mizzou with the schedule they’ve been given. Drink knows they’re treated like the red-headed stepchild of the conference, so a win at home in the Border War rivalry would be a massive statement to take aim at the conference title game down the road. Beau Pribula crushed against Central Arkansas and was someone that Penn State simply didn’t want to depart with, and the homefield advantage with a solid Missouri program now brewing will give them the win over a Kansas team that we still need to see consistently with Daniels to believe in.
Illinois at Indiana: Illinois
We’re taking Illinois here simply because they’re more battle-tested despite it being in Bloomington. Both coaches have the fire of a thousand suns trying to be in the same conversation in the B1G as Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon, but especially Bret Bielema and Illinois because of the “Could they be this year’s Indiana?” question that has hovered around the program all offseason. Luke Altmyer has that same fire as well and looked like a stud in a win against Duke, and the returning production gives us something to trust rather than a 70+ point win against Indiana State from Indy.
Arizona State at Baylor: Baylor
Both are offensive powerhouses looking to contend for a Big 12 title, but no one has looked better in the conference than Sawyer Robertson thus far with that massive poised comeback against SMU. They’re both playing from behind with a loss already, but the Bears’ came against Auburn rather than Mississippi State, and the Sun Devils struggled to get going even against NAU week 1. Baylor has rolled since that loss, and they’ll win a shootout here.
Lock of the Week: South Carolina +9.5 at Mizzou
This line screams that they think highly of Mizzou’s rivalry win against Kansas and that they think Lanorris Sellers may be out due to the concussion. Sellers is playing, and Lanorris the Creator won’t have the Cocks lose by double digits even if Mizzou should be favored and could be a sleeper College Football Playoff pick. South Carolina has at least played consistently proud programs and will put up a better fight than that with a healthy Sellers.