Heading into the final Saturday of September, the shifting continues as conference races are just beginning to heat up.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ) No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ) No. 4 Florida State
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
Spotlight: Ole Miss. The Rebels gained serious top-12 consideration this week after a 4-0 start that included back-to-back wins against SEC opponents (Kentucky and Arkansas) and a 45-10 drubbing of a talented Tulane team. Ole Miss is No. 7 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which means the average top-25 team would have a 47.7% chance to achieve the same record against the same opponents. The real test, though, is on Saturday when Ole Miss hosts LSU (3:30 p.m., ABC). If the Rebels win, they should be undefeated heading into back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma. Those are the most difficult games on the schedule. If the Rebels can go 2-1 against those three opponents, they’d almost certainly be in. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a 67% chance to reach the playoff.
Spotlight: Indiana. No team saw its playoff chances increase more this week than Indiana, which jumped 28% and now has a 57% chance to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Saturday’s historic beatdown of the Illini pushed the Hoosiers to No. 11 in the latest projection, but that means they would be excluded from the field during the seeding process. IU would get bumped out to make room for Memphis, the projected winner of the American and fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. Because Memphis is currently projected outside of the committee’s top 12 — and projected Big 12 winner Texas Tech is currently in the No. 12 spot — the committee’s No. 11 team is the one that gets bounced. If the Hoosiers continue to dominate, though, they will likely climb to a safer spot within the top 10. Indiana has a tougher playoff path this year than last, as it travels to both Oregon and Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Hoosiers less than a 50% chance to beat the Ducks but projects them to beat Penn State.
The enigma: Michigan. The true identity of this team — whether it’s been with interim head coach Biff Poggi or head coach Sherrone Moore — remains a mystery. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has rebounded since the Week 2 loss at Oklahoma. Michigan found a way to win at Nebraska, the defense for the most part has been above average, and the Wolverines don’t have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan’s toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. The Wolverines most likely need to at least split with those opponents to avoid a third loss. If Michigan can do that and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee would give the Wolverines serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams would be out there — and how their résumés would stack up.
The enigma: Syracuse. That’s right, the Syracuse team that beat Clemson. On the road. With its backup quarterback finishing the game. Are these guys for real? Their lone loss was to a Tennessee team that remains in the committee’s projected top 12. The wins, though, leave something to prove before Syracuse is taken seriously as a contender in the ACC, let alone the CFP. The Orange needed overtime to beat UConn, and the committee will look right over a 66-24 win against Colgate. It’s going to get more difficult, as the Orange will face Georgia Tech and have back-to-back November road trips to Miami and Notre Dame, with a bye week in between. And if Syracuse is going to keep winning, it’s going to have to do it with backup quarterback Rickie Collins, an LSU transfer. ESPN’s FPI gives the Orange less than a 50% chance to win each of those games and the Oct. 4 trip to SMU.
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish got their first win on Saturday against Purdue and earned some style points in the process, beating the Boilermakers 56-30. They did exactly what they needed to following an 0-2 start. Now they have to do it nine more times. Even with a 10-2 finish, an at-large bid isn’t a guarantee. It depends on how many other 10-2 teams the committee has to consider, what their résumés are — and what those two losses look like. If nothing else, Notre Dame might finish with two of the best losses in the country.
The 12-team College Football Playoff has significantly broadened the pool of candidates to include any team that has a chance to win its conference — and that makes every FBS race matter longer, as the selection committee’s five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference: ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten SEC | Independent | Group of 5 Bracket
Would be in: Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Work to do: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Work to do: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Maryland, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Work to do: Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest
Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Colorado
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Miami
Cignetti on Indiana’s rout of Illinois: ‘We broke their will’ (0:30)Indiana coach Curt Cignetti talks about what went right in Indiana’s 63-10 win against Illinois. (0:30)