Since 2016 (excluding the Covid season), there have been 754 regular season matchups between Group of 5 teams and Power 5 teams. Due to a disparity in revenue and recruiting, Power 5 teams have largely dominated winning over 80% of these matchups; however, a further look at the numbers reveals some other interesting trends.
Top Group of 5 Teams:
This past Saturday, San Diego State crushed California 34-0 snapping their 8-game skid in regular season games against Power 5 opponents pushing them into the top position. Other notable mentions on this list include UNLV who has won 4 of their last 5 regular season P5 games and Memphis who is the only G5 team to win 3 games against the SEC since 2016.
Worst P5 Teams:
Most of the entrants on this list are not surprising. With the disbanding of the PAC 12, Oregon State has been forced to schedule a lot of games against MWC teams and they’ve lost their last 4 with former PAC 12 member UCLA in similar company losing their last 3 MWC games including a Week 3 beatdown by New Mexico. Arkansas is the only SEC team to make the list after a heartbreaking collapse against Memphis this past Saturday.
Ranking the Conferences:
The MWC consistently picks/picked up wins against clearly the weakest P5 conference in the PAC 12 putting them at the top of this list. The American is not far behind though. Despite many of their best teams leaving for the BIG 12, others such as Memphis and South Florida have picked up the slack.
Some argue that due to NIL, the gap between Group of 5 conferences and Power 5 conferences is increased reducing parity in college sports and certainly some of these numbers, particularly that of the Sun Belt, MAC, and Conference USA support this idea; however, this is the second straight season that the MWC has boasted a winning percentage of at least 40% and the American is having their best season against Power 5 teams since 2018 which is promising for these smaller FBS teams.
All the blue on this heatmap showcases how much worse the PAC 12 was than any other conference even before the steep drop-off that occurred when all the teams except for Oregon State and Washington State left. The ACC is not much better and this season’s win percentage illustrates the gap between the top of the conference who have big wins other P5 foes and the bottom who have struggled against G5 opponents.
Final Thoughts:
With the ACC and SEC joining the Big 10 and Big 12 with a 9-game conference slate, the likelihood of having huge Power 5 non-conference matchups at the beginning of the season are going drastically down. While many will be disappointed by this, it opens the door for more of these Group of 5 teams to get the chance to seize the spotlight and take down one of the giants in college football.