Mackenzie KraemerCloseWorks at ESPN Stats & InformationFollow on XSep 24, 2025, 01:28 PM ET
ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun and simple games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
Week 3 finally had the first major upset of the season with the Green Bay Packers blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Browns. It was the first game all season where more than 10% of the field was knocked out. Still, 72% of all entrants remain, a far cry from last year when 95% of entrants had been eliminated by now.
This week, the Buffalo Bills are the largest favorites so far as they host the winless New Orleans Saints, but they also have one of the easiest remaining schedules. The smaller the group, the better the pick the Bills are, as immediate win probability matters more, especially if you have not burned any of the other elite teams (or the Arizona Cardinals, who have a prime Week 5 matchup, just like the Bills).
It’s a close call this week for the top choice, but I will side with saving the Bills for down the road and instead take the Houston Texans. There is more risk involved with taking the winless Texans, but they are the third-biggest moneyline favorites of the week and set you up for success down the road if they survive. If I had five Eliminator Challenge entries, I would go two Texans, two Bills and one Denver Broncos.
Fundamentally, the Texans check almost every box. This is by far their highest win probability in any game all season, they have a comparably low selection rate and they are one of the biggest favorites of the week. The only box they don’t check is actually winning football games.
Joe Burrow’s injury changed everything for the Bengals’ outlook. ESPN Analytics has dropped the Bengals to the No. 29 team in its rankings since the Burrow injury, as they are 31st in EPA per play offensively and 21st defensively.
Combine that with expected high ownership for the Lions, and they seem like an easy team to save for later, perhaps as soon as next week, where both ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay list the Lions as the largest favorites (at Bengals).