Week 4 Recap: 3-2 (14-11 overall)
Texas Tech +3.5 – W
Miami -7.5 – W
Ole Miss -10.5 – W
Baylor/ASU Over 60.5 – L
Michigan/Nebraska Under 46.5 – L
I thought I was playing it smart by adding a few over/unders to the picks last week… we can see how that went. On the bright side, I turned in another positive week – that is 4/5 positive weeks if you are keeping track. As always in college football, there are some great matchups on the slate this weekend – let’s cut to the chase and pick some winners. The dogs will be barking this weekend.
4LSU at 13Ole Miss (O/U 54.5)
This is probably the most interesting matchup of the weekend, and if it is like any of the games from the last few years between these teams, it could shape up to be another instant classic. Much has been made about starting LSU linebacker Whit Weeks going public with one of Lane Kiffin’s daughters the week of the game… I don’t know who is trying to play mind games here but it is kind of weird nonetheless. I think that adds another layer of intrigue in this one. Back to the on the field stuff – LSU has not allowed more then 10 points in a game this year, and their offense has struggled for a majority of the year – will that change this weekend? LSU has been playing conservative and doing what it takes to win ballgames, but Ole Miss feels different than any team they have played so far. Ole Miss has scored at least 30 in all of their games and Trinidad Chambliss has been lights out since he took over the starting role two games ago. Although Lane Kiffin said to take the over, I am not buying it. This will not be a high scoring affair like in years past and 54.5 is a high line. Under 54.5 is the play.
1Ohio State (-8.5) at Washington
This is a very interesting matchup and spread – the number 1 ranked team in the country heading to a road game against the second highest scoring team in FBS (55.7 ppg). This line opened up at -13.5 and quickly shrunk down to -8.5. Vegas knows something. Ohio state is giving up over 100 yards per game on the ground while only having played one FBS team – that is concerning. Ohio State has had some issues coming off their byes in recent years, notably last year when they barely escaped with a win against Nebraska as 25 point favorites. The trends say the Huskies offense can do some damage, even with an impressive Buckeye defense. The #1 team always have a target on their back and the Huskies are taking aim – Washington +8.5.
17Alabama at 5Georgia (-3.5)
A quality SEC matchup as old as time. After a rough week 1 for Bama, they got back on track after beating up on UL Monroe and Wisconsin. Georgia had their first real test two weeks ago against Tennessee, and while it looked like for a while they had no chance, they persevered and got it done in a hostile environment. Georgia wins big games, but they don’t always cover. Here are some stats for you: UGA is 1-6 against the spread (ATS) in its last 7 games, 1-4 ATS against Bama their last 5 meetings, and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 September games. Bama is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games and aren’t underdogs often. I know Saban is not coming out of that tunnel, but I believe the Tide can win this game. That is why I like them to cover – Bama +3.5.
6Oregon at 3Penn State (-3.5)
Another interesting matchup between two teams that many believe could be in the National Championship at the end of the year. The tough part about picking a game like this early in the season is that neither team has played anyone worth a damn (sorry Oklahoma State fans, did not mean to kick you while you are down). Penn state is such a difficult place to play and Oregon does not have the experience that some teams have coming into these hostile environments. But. There is always a But. I don’t believe in Drew Allar. Maybe that is a hot take, I don’t really know the pulse around him, but he is not a special player in my opinion. He can get the job done, but he is not an X factor. Oregon, on the other hand, has X factor players that will be activated for Saturday night in Beaver Stadium. Ducks +3.5.
Arizona at 14Iowa State (-6.5)
A Big 12 matchup with two undefeated teams is on tap in this one. Iowa state is still regarded as one of the favorites to win the Big 12, but they haven’t been as dominant as one would expect. In 4 games this season, they have won 3 of them by one score including a mere 8 point victory against Arkansas State…. not exactly inspiring. I think Iowa State will continue to win games, but I don’t think dominating football will be a part of those wins. In regards to Arizona, Noah Fifita has looked pretty solid through the team’s first 3 games and has yet to throw an interception. Arizona’s D line has been playing well and creating pressure, which is a must if they want to compete in this one. Running back Ismail Mahdi is looking to build off of a 189 yard rushing performance in his last outing against Kansas state, and he is averaging 7.1 yards per carry overall. If the Cats can get him rolling again, Arizona can control this game. I think that is exactly what happens and the Wildcats will keep it close enough to cover. Arizona +6.5.
Final Picks:
LSU/Ole Miss – Under 54.5
Washington +8.5
Bama +3.5
Oregon +3.5
Arizona +6.5
Written By Blake Mire @BlakeMire on X
This is not financial advice, tail or fade at your own risk.
