Mike ClaySep 25, 2025, 07:24 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on X
Why Chase Brown is no longer a top RB in fantasy (1:37)Mike Clay explains why Chase Brown has fallen out of the top 20 running backs in Week 4 of fantasy. (1:37)
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
SEA-ARI | MIN-PIT | WAS-ATL | NO-BUF | CLE-DET | TEN-HOU | CAR-NE | LAC-NYG PHI-TB | IND-LAR | JAX-SF | BAL-KC | CHI-LV | GB-DAL | NYJ-MIA | CIN-DEN
Shadow Report: Despite facing off with talented Chicago, Atlanta and Cincinnati WR rooms, the Vikings have surrendered the fewest catches and fantasy points to wideouts this season. Rome Odunze (15.7 in Week 1) is the only WR to reach double-digit fantasy points against them. This week, Metcalf and Calvin Austin III should be downgraded against Byron Murphy Jr,, Isaiah Rodgers, Jeff Okudah and slot/S Joshua Metellus.
Shadow Report: Bills receivers are tough to trust, but we’re upgrading them against a Saints pass defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the perimeter this season. Keon Coleman (89% perimeter) and Joshua Palmer (70%) stand to benefit most, as they’ll see a ton of Isaac Yiadom and Kool-Aid McKinstry.
Shadow Report: The Panthers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the fewest to the perimeter. Kayshon Boutte (81% perimeter) and Mack Hollins (86%) should be downgraded against Carolina boundary corners Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, whereas Stefon Diggs (53% slot) is in a better (but not easy) spot against Chau Smith-Wade inside.
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey
Shadow Report: Expect L’Jarius Sneed to shadow Collins this week, as he did against Courtland Sutton in Week 1 and Davante Adams in Week 2. Both Sutton (granted, Sneed was limited in that game) and Adams put together strong stat lines, and Sneed is off to a slow start, with Tennessee having allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers. Collins should be valued as a solid WR1 as usual.
Lineup locks: Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Ashton Jeanty, Jakobi Meyers, Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Brock Bowers
Shadow Report: New week, same story. We’re upgrading all Raiders receivers (Meyers, Dont’e Thornton Jr. and the aforementioned Tucker) against an injury-plagued Chicago pass defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers. We’re also upgrading Bears receivers Odunze, Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus against the Raiders’ Kyu Blu Kelly, Darnay Holmes and Eric Stokes cornerback trio. Las Vegas has allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers.
Fantasy scoop: With CeeDee Lamb out for a few weeks, Pickens and Ferguson are lineup locks. With Lamb limited to six snaps on Sunday, Pickens posted a 5-68-1 receiving line on nine targets (oddly, he posted a 5-68-1 line on 10 targets the week prior). It’s a tough matchup (Green Bay has allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards despite facing the fifth-most pass attempts), but Pickens’ clear path to a large target share cements him as a WR2.
Shadow Report: Upgrade the Packers’ wide receivers (Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, Dontayvion Wicks) against a Dallas defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers, including the most to the perimeter. Doubs (89% perimeter) and Golden (75%) will see a ton of Trevon Diggs and Kaiir Elam out wide, with Wicks (58% slot) inside against either DaRon Bland (if back from injury) or Reddy Steward.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
Fantasy scoop: With James Conner done for the season, Trey Benson is now the clear lead back in Arizona. The 2024 third-round pick played 20 of 27 snaps following Conner’s third-quarter departure Sunday, with Emari Demercado handling the other seven plays. Benson has played well thus far (125 yards on 21 carries and 45 yards on 10 targets) and will now be the team’s primary ball carrier and goal-line option. Demercado (84 carries and 37 receptions in his career) will be a change-of-pace and passing-down option, though he doesn’t figure to steal many carries (he hasn’t cleared four in a game since Week 8 of 2023). Benson should be viewed as a fantasy RB2 moving forward, whereas Demercado is no more than a bench option in deeper leagues.
Fantasy scoop: As expected, Mason was the Vikings’ feature back with Aaron Jones Sr. sidelined last week. The veteran back was on the field for 35 of 44 snaps (80%) prior to sitting out the final 14 plays of the blowout win. Mason was effective as a rusher (16-116-2) but didn’t see a single target. Limited receiving work will remain detrimental to Mason’s fantasy ceiling, but heavy volume and effectiveness as a rusher will keep him in the weekly RB2 mix. He should be in lineups against a Steelers defense that allowed 100-plus rushing yards to Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III.
Fantasy scoop: Week 3 gave us our first look at the Washington backfield since Austin Ekeler was ruled out for the season. It was a three-man weave, with Jacory Croskey-Merritt (eight carries and one target on 21 snaps), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (11 carries on 21 snaps) and Jeremy McNichols (four carries on 14 snaps) all involved. The three backs split 12 passing routes almost evenly. Croskey-Merritt has the highest ceiling of the three, but he’ll need to see more work, especially as a receiver (three career targets) and remains no more than a deep-league flex. McNichols’ impressive TD run could earn him more work, but he and Rodriguez are no more than end-of-bench holds.
Shadow Report: Terry McLaurin and A.J. Terrell appear to be long shots to play this week, but expect Terrell to shadow Washington’s top receiver if both are active. Terrell shadowed Mike Evans in Week 1 and has a history of traveling with most clear No. 1 perimeter receivers. That’s the case for McLaurin, who has aligned out wide on 86% of his routes this season. Though Terrell showed well against Evans in Week 1, he hasn’t consistently been detrimental to opposing top receivers. A healthy McLaurin can be started as usual.
Fantasy scoop: Dalton Kincaid is off to a hot start, having opened the season with 14.8 fantasy points (more than he had in a single game all last season) and, most recently, delivering a career-high 17.6 points against the Dolphins in Week 3. On the one hand, there’s reason for pessimism that this is sustainable, as Kincaid has played only 51% of the snaps (down from 54% last year) and his 16.5% target share, while solid, is also down from last season’s 19.0%, when he finished 19th in fantasy PPG. On the other hand, Kincaid has already matched his career high in touchdowns (two) and his three end zone targets are tied for the position lead and are one off his prior career high. Perhaps Kincaid is headed for a Year 3 breakout, but Buffalo’s spread-it-around attack suggests a return to earth is likely in the cards. Consider Kincaid a fringe TE1.
Fantasy scoop: With three weeks in the books, one team has two top-20 scorers in fantasy points at tight end: the Browns. Third-round rookie Harold Fannin Jr. sits 12th and David Njoku is five points behind in 19th. Njoku has yet to clear 40 yards or 9.0 fantasy points in a game, but perhaps got pointed in the right direction with a season-high seven targets (23%) in Week 3. Fannin started hot with 63 yards on nine targets in his NFL debut, but he’s totaled just 73 yards on nine targets over his last two outings. Both players are on the field often (Njoku has played 82% of the snaps, compared to 66% for Fannin), but a Cleveland offense that sits 30th in EPA is unlikely to sustain two fantasy-relevant tight ends. The veteran Njoku remains the preferred fantasy option, but he’s dipped to more of a fringe starting option. Fannin is, at best, a bench stash and a quality dynasty hold.
Fantasy scoop: Henry exploded for an 8-90-2 receiving line on 11 targets against the Steelers on Sunday. The 29.0 fantasy-point performance was the second-highest of his career (30.0 in Week 6 back in 2019). Henry did post a dud in Week 2 (9 yards on three targets), but he also showed well in the season opener (66 yards on eight targets) and his 21% target share is up slightly from 2024, when he finished 16th among tight ends in fantasy PPG. Henry’s two TDs match his season-long total from an unlucky 2024, and it appears his strong connection with Drake Maye isn’t going away. Henry is back on the TE1 radar and is a solid starter against Carolina.
