Bill ConnellySep 26, 2025, 07:30 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X
play1:02Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdownJalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.
‘Get Up’ crew unanimous on who wins Alabama-Georgia (1:06)Josh Pate, Will Compton and Taylor Lewan all see one winner when the Crimson Tide travel to Georgia on Saturday. (1:06)
Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdownJalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.
Since the college football preseason, it has been easy to circle Week 5 as sort of a rubber-meets-road weekend. It’s finally here, and it’s as big as we could have hoped.
We’ve spent four weeks gearing up for this one. Time to get hyped and hydrated. Here’s everything you need to follow in an incredible Week 5.
With all due respect to Nevada, Florida International and Villanova — the No. 138, 134 and 186 teams, respectively, in my all-division SP+ rankings — Penn State began its 2025 season with three glorified scrimmages. Per SP+, an average top-five team would expect to start the season 3-0 against those opponents 97.3% of the time, winning by an average of 38.3 points per game. The Nittany Lions won by exactly 38.3 per game.
To put it politely, the offense has been rather reserved. Franklin is the type of coach who would keep things vanilla and put as little as possible on film before a big game. PSU isn’t allowing pressure or negative plays and has committed just one turnover in three games, and Drew Allar hasn’t really looked to make big plays — he has thrown just four passes 30 or more yards downfield, completing two for touchdowns. The Nittany Lions have been content to lean on opponents until they fall over.
The Oregon pass defense has looked fantastic so far, and both star edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei (three sacks, one pass breakup) and linebacker Teitum Tuioti (4.5 TFLs, 5 run stops, 1.5 sacks) have looked the part. As with PSU, the run defense has been imperfect — the rebuilt defensive front is still settling in — but the Ducks are forcing loads of passing downs and three-and-outs.
Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdown
Jalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.)
The Georgia run defense is really strong, with linebackers CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson combining for 28 tackles against the run with four run stops (tackles at or behind the line). But despite blitzing a decent amount, the Dawgs rank just 102nd in sack rate and 111th in yards allowed per dropback. Without marked improvement there, Bama might get away without having to run much.
After sleepwalking through the Austin Peay game in Week 2, the Georgia offense woke up when it had to against Tennessee. The Dawgs were hit-and-miss — six possessions with 69 or more yards, four of 9 or fewer — primarily because negative plays derailed some drives (something that right tackle Earnest Greene III’s continued injury issues won’t help). But Gunner Stockton was 8-for-11 for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns on third and fourth down.
You’d rather be near USC or Florida State on that chart, not Iowa and Utah. Stockton is just 3-for-11 on passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield — one of those was the game-saving, fourth-down touchdown lob to London Humphrey against Tennessee — and the Dawgs have gotten some big gainers off short, quick passes to the bouncy Zach Branch, but this isn’t a naturally explosive offense.
Alabama’s defense hasn’t created nearly enough negative plays — the Tide are 68th in sack rate and 83rd in stuff rate — and their opponents’ third-down conversion rate has risen in each game. (Wisconsin was 6-for-11.) That could make them vulnerable to Georgia’s short game, but they could counter that somewhat with big-play prevention: They got burned for four gains of 25 or more against Florida State, but they’ve given up just one such play since.
Ole Miss finished last season second in SP+, but three heartbreaking losses kept them out of the CFP. It felt like an epic missed opportunity because how often can Ole Miss expect to field a team that good? Well, the Rebels are unbeaten and seventh in SP+, and they’ve already avenged one of 2024’s heartbreakers by knocking off Kentucky in Lexington.
Note the big gap in the middle of that pass map. With Chambliss’ legs, a heavy dose of running back Kewan Lacy and receivers like Harrison Wallace III capable of gaining solid yardage on short passes, the Rebels have a lot of ways to stay on schedule. That’s important because LSU dominates when teams get off schedule.
Opponents are just 2-for-26 against LSU on third-and-7 or more, and the Tigers have yet to allow more than 10 points in a game. Brian Kelly did well in the transfer portal by adding former USF defensive tackle Bernard Gooden up front (4 run stops, 6 pressures, 1 forced fumble) and former Virginia Tech cornerback Mansoor Delane. Opponents have targeted Delane’s man 20 times, and he has allowed just three completions with a pick and four breakups.
The LSU defense has controlled games so well that Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t had to take many chances. He has thrown only 11 passes more than 20 yards downfield, and he has completed only two of them with an interception. Opponents are blitzing a lot because of LSU’s unproven line and a poor run game, but Nussmeier is completing 73% of all his other passes. Wideouts Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown and Zavion Thomas and tight end Bauer Sharp have all caught at least 11 balls.
Granted, they probably won’t get any votes next week either because they will probably lose to Ohio State. The top-ranked Buckeyes took a week off after moving to 3-0, and they head west with one of the best defenses in the country.
So why am I giving this game marquee treatment instead of sticking it in the playlist below? A few reasons:
• This is Sayin’s first road start, and plenty of awesome, young quarterbacks have stumbled on the road early in their careers. Washington also blitzes a lot and has at least one excellent pass rusher in Jacob Lane.
• The Huskies’ offense ranks first in third-down conversion rate (75.0%) and, combined with Coleman successfully fighting for extra yards, could move the chains and frustrate Ohio State’s defense.
• Everyone fails a test at some point, but in five career starts, Williams has completed 78% of his passes at 14.6 yards per completion with 402 non-sack rushing yards and only one interception. He’s incredible, and there’s nothing like a visit from the No. 1 team to introduce yourself to the world.
Yes, Ohio State probably wins. But Washington might not need many breaks to take this one down to the wire.
Current line: OSU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 10.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 5.0
FSU has vaulted back into the top 10 as if 2024’s collapse was a figment of our imagination. The Seminoles are fifth in net YAC and second in rushing yards per game — veteran coordinator Gus Malzahn has gone back to his rushing roots, and it’s pretty spicy to watch. Virginia, however, is eighth in net YAC and has leaped from 74th to 42nd in SP+. An offense with seven transfer starters, including RB J’Mari Taylor, has improved almost as much as Florida State’s.
Two weeks ago, USC (seventh in net YAC) wobbled but kept it together in a 33-17 win at Purdue. This midwestern trip should be trickier. Illinois got YAC’d to pieces by Indiana and will probably respond with physicality, but the Illini still must slow down Jayden Maiava and a great USC passing game.
BYU (fourth in net YAC) is just mean. The Cougars rank first in points allowed per drive and force tons of negative plays, and running back LJ Martin is a great security blanket for freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. Colorado’s offense found its footing last week against Wyoming, but the BYU defense is a different obstacle.
OK, you don’t need to watch much of this, especially during a loaded prime-time slot. But any glimpse of Mizzou (second in net YAC) and backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts (combined: 898 yards and eight TDs) is worth the effort.
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to San Diego State’s shocking blowout of Cal, we’re now 3-for-4 this season. Our power is only growing stronger.
This week, SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that Indiana (72% win probability at Iowa), Utah (83% at West Virginia), Houston (85% at Oregon State) and Memphis (90% at FAU) all win. Someone’s suffering a letdown game after either a big win (Indiana or Memphis) or a long flight (Utah or Houston).
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). It took a couple of weeks, but ASU has officially checked into the 2025 season with an easy win over Texas State and a buzzer-beater over Baylor in Waco. The Sun Devils haven’t lost a conference game in more than 11 months, but TCU has very the part in 2025. Pair this with FSU-Virginia, and you’ve got a hell of a Friday night!
No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (noon, ABC). Notre Dame and Arkansas have won three games by a combined 113 points and lost four by a combined 11. That’s pretty tough to do, and one of them will head into October with a losing record despite obvious upside. I’ll be really disappointed if we don’t get a track meet here, considering their seven games have averaged 69.7 total points thus far.
Current line: ND -3.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Arkansas by 2.2 | FPI projection: ND by 1.4