Kyle BonaguraCloseKyle BonaguraESPN Staff WriterCovers college football.Joined ESPN in 2014.Attended Washington State University.Follow on XMark SchlabachCloseMark SchlabachESPN Senior WriterSenior college football writer Author of seven books on college football Graduate of the University of GeorgiaFollow on XSep 28, 2025, 12:45 PM ET
Finebaum: ‘Hard to take Penn State seriously’ as CFP contender (0:55)Paul Finebaum joins “SportsCenter” to critique Drew Allar, James Franklin and Penn State after another loss in a big game to an AP top-10 team. (0:55)
Week 5 of the college football season featured a series of heavyweight battles, headlined by Oregon beating Penn State in double overtime, Alabama posting a huge road win at Georgia, and Ole Miss knocking off LSU.
But there were surprises and close calls up and down the scoreboard, resulting in the biggest shakeup yet in the College Football Playoff and bowl pictures.
As in last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Bonagura: For the last few weeks, the ACC had quietly been positioning itself for a shot at two playoff bids and maybe — gasp! — even three with Miami, Florida State and Georgia Tech all rounding into impressive form. For all three to get in, it would have taken an unlikely set of circumstances, and now it seems like that scenario is off the table.
Florida State’s loss to Virginia was a momentum killer and Georgia Tech squeaked by with an uninspiring performance against Wake Forest. The knee-jerk reaction from those results is to conclude neither of those teams will do enough for an at-large bid and that the ACC is likely a one-bid league (while also considering Louisville is still undefeated).
Oregon moved up three spots in my seedings after its 30-24 victory in two overtimes at Penn State, which is the best win of the season so far. Ohio State and Miami remained in my top four, while I wasn’t quite sure what to do with the fourth spot. I went with Texas A&M, while also seriously considering Ole Miss and Texas Tech.
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 2 Oregon Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oregon
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Miami Schlabach: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Miami
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California) 4 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Bonagura: Remember when Alabama was dead and buried a couple of weeks ago? Well, after the Tide’s win against Georgia, ESPN’s Football Power Index projects that only Ole Miss will finish with a better record from the SEC than Bama and that no team in the conference has a better chance to win out (albeit it’s a slight 7.6% chance).
Ole Miss was the big mover this week, jumping to the front of the SEC with a key win against LSU — and the Rebels have just two ranked opponents left on their schedule (Georgia and Oklahoma). With that being the case, Ole Miss feels like the safest pick from the SEC to reach the playoff.
An Alabama-Ohio State contest in the Rose Bowl would be one of the better CFP games, and an all-SEC affair in New Orleans would probably make the Sugar Bowl organizers pretty happy.
Bonagura: The way I see it, Oregon’s win at Penn State solidified the Ducks as a top-two team, alongside Ohio State — and they get a bye week to prepare for another massive game Oct. 11 against Indiana. From there, Oregon has a manageable schedule with no teams that are currently ranked the rest of the way.
Ohio State has allowed a total of 22 points in four games and appears to be on a collision course with Oregon in the Big Ten title game, which has the potential to be a national title game preview.
Schlabach: I think you could argue that the Ducks are the No. 1 team in the FBS right now. Former UCLA transfer Dante Moore is playing like the best quarterback in the country, and the Oregon defense did a great job containing Penn State’s running game, while giving quarterback Drew Allar tight windows to throw. I’ve got the Ducks getting past Miami in the Fiesta Bowl.
Lane Kiffin has done an unbelievable job building Ole Miss into an SEC title contender again, and he has one of the best stories in the sport in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. He helped Ferris State in Michigan win two NCAA Division II national championships, and he’s lighting it up in the SEC. He threw for 314 yards and ran for 71 in the Rebels’ 24-19 upset of LSU. Meanwhile, the Ole Miss defense held the Tigers to 59 rushing yards and made things difficult for quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.
Ole Miss still plays at Georgia, Oklahoma and Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl, so it’s going to be a tough road the rest of the way.
Cricket Celebration Bowl Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Alabama State vs. North Carolina Central Schlabach: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
LA Bowl SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV
StaffDNA Cure Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 5 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Troy
68 Ventures Bowl Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama) 8:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Troy vs. Central Michigan Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Buffalo
Myrtle Beach Bowl Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: UTSA vs. Old Dominion Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State
Boca Raton Bowl Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UConn vs. Jacksonville State Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: James Madison vs. Louisiana Tech Schlabach: Louisiana-Monroe vs. Louisiana Tech
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Utah State vs. Kansas State Schlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: New Mexico vs. Washington State Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane
GameAbove Sports Bowl Ford Field (Detroit) 1 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Ohio Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Central Michigan
Rate Bowl Chase Field (Phoenix) 4:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Kansas vs. Minnesota Schlabach: Baylor vs. Michigan State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Rice vs. Hawai’i Schlabach: SMU vs. Kansas State
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Louisville vs. Iowa Schlabach: Louisville vs. Maryland
Wasabi Fenway Bowl Fenway Park (Boston) 2:15 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: NC State vs. Tulane Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Memphis
Pop-Tarts Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Iowa State
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona) 4:30 p.m., CW Network Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. San Diego State Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico) 5:45 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Boise State vs. Cal Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida) 7:30 p.m. ABC Bonagura: Florida State vs. LSU Schlabach: Florida State vs. Tennessee
Kinder’s Texas Bowl NRG Stadium (Houston) 9:15 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Houston vs. Vanderbilt Schlabach: TCU vs. Missouri
JLab Birmingham Bowl Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: South Carolina vs. East Carolina Schlabach: Auburn vs. NC State
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Baylor vs. Western Kentucky Schlabach: Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Music City Bowl Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Maryland vs. Missouri Schlabach: Illinois vs. Mississippi State
Valero Alamo Bowl Alamodome (San Antonio) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: BYU vs. USC Schlabach: Utah vs. USC
ReliaQuest Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Texas Schlabach: Iowa vs. LSU
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas) 2 p.m., CBS Bonagura: Duke vs. Arizona State Schlabach: Clemson vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 3 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas A&M Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 3:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Illinois vs. Utah Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas) 1 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UCF vs. South Florida Schlabach: Kansas vs. UTSA
AutoZone Liberty Bowl Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee) 4:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Auburn Schlabach: BYU vs. South Carolina