Grading 50-plus NBA deals, including Al Horford's deal with Warriors

The best of Al Horford’s 2024-25 season (1:58)Check out some of Al Horford’s top highlights from his last season in Boston as heads to Golden State. (1:58)

Kevin PeltonSep 28, 2025, 05:12 PM ETClose Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE systemFollow on X

Sept. 3: Mavericks, Washington agree to an extension

Aug. 5: Celtics trade Georges Niang, sign Chris Boucher

July 16: Bradley Beal agrees to buyout with Suns, to join Clippers

July 10: Thunder extend Williams on a five-year deal

July 2: Hornets retain Mann, add guard depth with Dinwiddie

July 1: Raptors extend Poeltl; add Mamukelashvili to bolster bench

June 30: JJJ gets massive extension with Memphis, Aldama returns

June 30: Kornet heads to San Antonio on a four-year deal

June 30: Pistons land LeVert and Reed in separate deals

June 30: Capela heads back to Rockets on three-year deal

June 30: Jerome headed to Memphis on a three-year deal

June 30: Lakers add LaRavia after losing Finney-Smith

June 29: Rockets’ Jabari Smith Jr. gets five-year extension

June 29: Randle stays with Wolves on three-year deal

June 29: Jaylin Williams to sign new three-year deal with OKC

June 28: Mitchell returns to Miami on two-year deal

June 27: Timberwolves and Naz Reid agree to new deal

June 25: VanVleet to sign new $50 million deal with Houston

June 14: Rockets, Adams agree to three-year extension

NBA free agency is underway, and teams are adding stars and making moves to fill their rosters for the 2025-26 season.

Among the most impactful signings so far: Myles Turner leaving the defending Eastern Conference champion Indiana Pacers for the Milwaukee Bucks; max extensions for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaren Jackson Jr.; James Harden’s new two-year deal with the LA Clippers; and the $52.6 million player option for LeBron James with the Los Angeles Lakers.

As more deals get reported, we’re grading the moves and examining what each means for next season and beyond.

Finally. Horford signing with the Warriors was rumored from the start of free agency nearly three months ago and became obvious once the other possible suitors quickly utilized their exceptions to fill frontcourt needs.

Golden State delayed formally agreeing on a contract all summer to maintain flexibility pending the outcome of Jonathan Kuminga’s seemingly endless restricted free agency. Depending on where Kuminga’s contract came in, the Warriors could have structured Horford’s contract — which will hard cap them at the second apron by using their taxpayer midlevel exception — slightly differently.

Let’s come back to the financial implications of Horford’s deal and start by discussing the basketball fit. Even before the Warriors added Jimmy Butler at the February trade deadline, frontcourt shooting was Golden State’s biggest need.

With Draymond Green an iffy shooter at this stage of his career (32.5% on 3s during the regular season, 27% in the playoffs) and Butler (1.9 attempts per game from long distance) a reluctant one, the Warriors badly need everyone else on the court with them to stretch the floor. (That has been part of the issue with Kuminga, who shot a career-worst 30.5% on 3s last season.)

That limitation resulted in Golden State coach Steve Kerr settling on a tiny lineup to close the regular season with no player taller than the 6-foot-7 Butler. Green plays much bigger than his listed height (6-foot-6), certainly, but the best Warriors “small-ball” units featured more size alongside him in the frontcourt than we saw last season.

Enter the 6-foot-9 Horford, who remains an archetype of versatility in his late 30s. (Horford turned 39 in June and will be 40 by the conclusion of the 2026 NBA Finals.) Horford shot just 36% on 3s last season, but that came on the heels of hitting better than 40% beyond the arc in each of the previous two campaigns. And Horford remains capable of defending on the perimeter better than most centers two decades younger.

To keep him healthy for long playoff runs, the Celtics carefully managed Horford’s minutes. He last played both ends of a back-to-back set in March 2022 and was limited to 28 minutes per game despite Boston playing much of last season without starting center Kristaps Porzingis. Golden State will want to operate in a similar fashion, making it important for young reserves Trayce Jackson-Davis and Quinten Post to help alleviate the 82-game load.

Come the postseason, the Warriors have unparalleled playoff experience. After 2021, last year’s NBA Finals were the second since 2014 that didn’t feature Golden State (which still boasts Green and Stephen Curry from their dynasty run), Butler or Horford. All four rank among the top 10 active players in playoff minutes.

How much Kuminga makes this season is limited by apron restrictions. If they fill out the roster with expected minimum signings of Seth Curry, De’Anthony Melton and Gary Payton II, that leaves the Warriors some $24 million to spend on Kuminga while staying clear of the second apron.

Signing other free agents to deals with player options such as Horford’s would reduce that maximum starting offer slightly because they would count at their full salary rather than the veteran’s minimum. But Golden State has more than enough money to make a fair offer to Kuminga on a multiyear deal that would also be highly tradeable.

Giddey is the second of the four key restricted free agents whose negotiations lingered well into the offseason to re-sign with his team, and the first to strike a long-term deal after Cam Thomas accepted the Brooklyn Nets’ qualifying offer.

Compared with Thomas, Giddey had far more leverage on his side. Chicago gave up key contributor Alex Caruso to get Giddey from the Oklahoma City Thunder last summer, and Giddey’s loftier qualifying offer ($11-plus million) made playing out this season a more viable threat if the Bulls deal wasn’t for more than $20 million per year.

In that scenario, Giddey would have needed only to sign a three-year contract for $23 million per year as an unrestricted free agent next summer in order to be equally well off. Given that concern, Chicago was probably right to increase Giddey’s offer to the point where he was willing to pass on the qualifying offer.

After all, Giddey did make strides in his first season with the Bulls, shooting a career-high 38% on 3s to address what had been his biggest offensive shortcoming. Given the keys to Chicago’s offense, Giddey nearly averaged a triple-double with 21.2 PPG, 10.7 RPG and 9.3 APG after the All-Star break. His shooting during that span (46% on 3s) is surely unsustainable, but Giddey is too often treated as a finished product at age 22.

This contract takes Giddey into his prime years, giving it a chance to age well for the Bulls. Based on the way players at his position develop in their 20s, we’ve seen that happen with a number of rookie extensions for point guards that were initially panned.

Although this deal isn’t technically an extension, it’s in line with the $112 million over four years Trey Murphy III got from the New Orleans Pelicans last October ahead of restricted free agency. And both Jalen Johnson and Jalen Suggs (five years, $150-ish million) got $5 million per year more, reflecting their more complete two-way contributions.

The difference will be important to Chicago next summer, when the Bulls could clear max cap space to build around a core of Giddey, free agent Coby White (who will have a modest $24.5 million cap hold) and 2024 lottery pick Matas Buzelis.

It’s certainly not clear at this point that any of those players, or rookie Noa Essengue, can be the best player on a contending team. But compared to where Chicago was a couple of years ago — fighting for a play-in spot with a core of players in their 30s — at least it represents a direction.

Extending Washington completes a Dallas offseason in which its decisions make much more sense individually than as a collective plan.

As with center Daniel Gafford, who was acquired at the 2024 trade deadline with Washington and struck an extension of his own earlier this offseason, this deal should be good value. Given that Washington will be 28 next summer, when he would have become an unrestricted free agent, it’s possible he could have easily commanded $25 million a year.

Since joining the Mavericks, Washington has established himself as one of the NBA’s most versatile forwards. He can defend in the post or on the wing, shot a career-high 38% on 3s last season and presents a threat putting the ball on the ground when opponents close out too hard to him on the perimeter.

The only issue is some of that versatility is wasted in Dallas’ overstuffed frontcourt. With Anthony Davis at power forward, Washington won’t toggle between the two forward spots as frequently as before the Luka Doncic trade. Instead, the Mavericks will need him to potentially start at small forward and serve as their primary perimeter stopper.

I don’t think Washington would have been the right choice, but Dallas would have been better off trading one of its five starting-caliber frontcourt options, only four of whom at most can start together. (Even that scenario means using No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg as a nominal shooting guard and pushing Klay Thompson’s floor spacing to the second unit, itself overstuffed with shooting guards.)

Although Gafford’s extension was structured so he could still be traded this offseason, Washington’s deal assures he’ll be with the Mavericks for the entire 2025-26 campaign. Because Washington is adding four years and getting the largest possible value, including 8% annual raises, he won’t be trade-eligible for six months — a period that extends beyond the 2026 trade deadline.

Trades will be Dallas’ only realistic option for shaking up the roster in the near future. Extending Washington means all 12 Mavericks making at least $5 million this season are under contract through 2026-27, with only one option in that group (a player option for newcomer D’Angelo Russell). That gives Dallas a minimum of $210 million in committed salary for that season, already enough to push the Mavericks north of the projected first apron.

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