Finebaum: ‘Hard to take Penn State seriously’ as CFP contender (0:55)Paul Finebaum joins “SportsCenter” to critique Drew Allar, James Franklin and Penn State after another loss in a big game to an AP top-10 team. (0:55)
With one double-overtime loss to Oregon on Saturday, Penn State dropped out of the latest College Football Playoff projection, landing in the dreaded No. 12 spot, where it would be replaced by the fourth and fifth conference champions.
The Nittany Lions are now officially on the bubble — and under pressure to win at Ohio State on Nov. 1.
This week, we added a fourth category: On the cusp. These are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers dropped out of the top 12 projection following their loss to Ole Miss because they didn’t look like a playoff team: 2-of-11 on third downs, 59 rushing yards, seven penalties and one turnover. The LSU defense allowed 13 explosive plays, its most in a single game since the 2024 season opener against USC. Offensively, LSU managed just three explosive plays — its fewest in a game since 2018. Still, it was a close loss on the road, and LSU has plenty of chances to get back into the race. Unless it continues to play like that. According to ESPN Analytics, LSU’s chances of reaching the SEC title game dropped to 2.9%, the 10th-best chance in the league. If the Tigers are not in the conference championship game, they could still earn an at-large bid, but they have the No. 12 toughest remaining schedule. That includes trips to ranked opponents Vandy, Alabama and Oklahoma.
The enigma: Vanderbilt. The perception of Vanderbilt is slowly changing — from an academic school with a football team, to an academic school with a spoiler team, to … hey, can these guys beat Bama again?! The Commodores are 5-0 for the second time in 80 years. Vandy beat the Tide 40-35 last year in Nashville. This year, the Commodores have scored at least 55 points in each of their past two games, and they’ve scored at least 30 in all five wins, their longest single-season streak since joining the SEC in 1948. A lot of Vandy’s success stems from the grit and personality of its quarterback, Diego Pavia, who accounted for six touchdowns against Utah State last week. This is where Vandy’s true test begins, though, as the Commodores have the No. 2 toughest remaining schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics. They’ll face four straight ranked opponents, starting with Bama. ESPN’s FPI gives Vandy less than a 50% chance to beat Alabama, Texas and Tennessee — all three road games. If the Commodores can defy the odds in just one of those — and finish 10-2 — they could have a chance at an at-large bid.
Spotlight: Penn State. At No. 12 in this week’s weekly projection, Penn State would be bumped out of the CFP field during the seeding process to include Memphis, the projected champion from the American, and the fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Penn State dropped for several reasons: It doesn’t have a win against a Power 4 opponent, it has one win against an FCS team (Villanova), and its offense hasn’t looked elite — even against weaker competition. The Nittany Lions can still change the narrative by beating Ohio State on Nov. 1 and Indiana on Nov. 8. They can also lose both of those games and miss the CFP entirely. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State less than a 50% chance to beat each of those teams. Don’t assume a 10-2 Penn State is a lock if its signature win is against Indiana — albeit a very good, ranked IU. There could be multiple other 10-2 contenders with better nonconference wins. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Penn State now has just a 22.5% chance of reaching the CFP — No. 19 in the country.
The enigma: Michigan. It’s still too early to tell how good the Wolverines are, and a bye week didn’t answer any questions. A gritty road win at Nebraska on Sept. 20, though, is early evidence things are trending in the right direction following the Sept. 6 loss at Oklahoma. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, the defense — for the most part — has been above average, and the Wolverines don’t have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan’s toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. If the Wolverines can split with those two opponents and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee will give them serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams will be out there — and how will their résumés stack up. Right now, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Michigan (35.2%) a better chance of reaching the CFP than Penn State (22.5%).
The enigma: Virginia. The Cavaliers had the spotlight to themselves on Friday night in a double-overtime win against Florida State — a stunning victory that illustrated the program’s investments in transfers and facilities and catapulted the Hoos into ACC contention. Was it a one-and-done upset? Or the start of something bigger under coach Tony Elliott? Virginia now has the second-best chance in the league to reach the conference title game (37.5%) behind Miami. The question is if the Cavaliers can sustain that success and build on it. ESPN’s FPI says no, giving them less than a 50% chance to win at Louisville on Saturday and at Duke on Nov. 15. If Virginia can win those games, though, and reach the ACC championship, that win against FSU could help the Hoos earn an at-large bid if they don’t win the ACC. Florida State, though, has to remain relevant in the CFP race for that win to continue to resonate with the committee.
Spotlight: Texas Tech. The undefeated Red Raiders were No. 13 in this week’s projection but would still be in the playoff as the projected Big 12 champion. Texas Tech’s best win was Sept. 20 at Utah, but it still has multiple chances to enhance its résumé and play its way into the top 12. If the selection committee ranks Utah, Arizona State and BYU — and the Red Raiders go undefeated during the regular season — it’s highly likely they would be the second Big 12 team if they didn’t win the conference title game. Right now, ESPN’s FPI projects Texas Tech will win each of its remaining games. Nobody in the Big 12 has a better chance to reach the league championship (51.5%) or win it (31.6%).
The enigma: BYU. The undefeated Cougars have won back-to-back road games against East Carolina and Colorado, but is this another 2024 tease? Last year, BYU was undefeated until mid-November, when back-to-back losses knocked it out of the Big 12 and CFP races. The Cougars haven’t earned a signature win yet, and might not until the Oct. 25 trip to Iowa State. That’s when the committee will start to learn how seriously to take BYU, as the following week is a second straight critical road trip — to Texas Tech. The Cougars have the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (42.7%) and win it (26.1%), according to ESPN Analytics. They’ll have the Friday night spotlight this week against a struggling West Virginia team.
Finebaum: ‘Hard to take Penn State seriously’ as CFP contender (0:55)Paul Finebaum joins “SportsCenter” to critique Drew Allar, James Franklin and Penn State after another loss in a big game to an AP top-10 team. (0:55)
Paul Finebaum joins “SportsCenter” to critique Drew Allar, James Franklin and Penn State after another loss in a big game to an AP top-10 team. (0:55)
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference: ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten SEC | Independent | Group of 5 Bracket
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Work to do: Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, UCF, Utah
Would be out: Colorado, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Oklahoma No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Florida State No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Oregon No. 10 Indiana/No. 7 Florida State winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State No. 9 Georgia/No. 8 Alabama winner vs. No. 1 Miami
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ) No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) No. 3 Oregon No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)