Mike ClayOct 2, 2025, 08:28 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on X
Can Javonte Williams continue his early-season fantasy success? (0:55)Daniel Dopp, Field Yates, and Mike Clay discuss why Javonte Williams is a top-10 fantasy running back heading into Week 5. (0:55)
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
SF-LAR | MIN-CLE | HOU-BAL | MIA-CAR | LV-IND | NYG-NO | DAL-NYJ DEN-PHI | TEN-ARI | TB-SEA | DET-CIN | WAS-LAC | NE-BUF | KC-JAX
Similar to Jared Goff, Stafford will occasionally be worth streaming consideration (especially during bye weeks), but that’s not the case this week against a 49ers defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest yards and fantasy points to QBs. Stafford is no more than a low-ceiling QB2.
Fantasy scoop: Jordan Addison returned from suspension and played 96% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps in Week 4. The 2023 first-round pick was targeted nine times and turned it into four catches for 114 yards. Addison has now seen at least eight targets in eight of his past 10 games tracing back to last season, averaging 16.3 fantasy PPG during the span.
Of course, a majority of that damage was done with Sam Darnold under center, and moving forward, Addison will work with Carson Wentz and eventually J.J. McCarthy. Suspect QB play figures to lead to inconsistent output, but considering Wentz threw for 350 yards on Sunday and has thrown two TD passes in both of his 2025 appearances, there’s enough here to keep Addison in the WR3 discussion against Cleveland.
Shadow Report: We’re downgrading Cleveland’s wide receivers against a terrific Minnesota pass defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, including to the perimeter, as well as the lowest EPA allowed to the pass overall. Jerry Jeudy is off to a slow start (13-182-0 receiving line on 30 targets and no games with more than 11.6 fantasy points), so he should be glued to your bench.
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Ashton Jeanty, Jakobi Meyers, Michael Pittman Jr., Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren
Shadow Report: Upgrade the Colts wide receivers against a Raiders pass defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position (sixth most to the perimeter) as well as the eighth-highest EPA against the pass. Pittman is the only Colts receiver you can trust right now and should be locked into lineups in this terrific matchup against Eric Stokes, Kyu Blu Kelly and Darnay Holmes.
Fantasy scoop: Jaxson Dart made his first NFL start on Sunday, and the results suggest we may have a potential fantasy asset on our hands. With New York ahead or tied on all 67 offensive snaps, Dart needed to attempt only 20 passes (he completed 13 for 111 yards and one TD), but he showed his dual-threat ability with a 10-54-1 rushing line. The latter was enough to give him a top-10 fantasy outing.
Dart will surely need to throw the ball more often moving forward, and that figures to be the case this week against a New Orleans defense that sits top five in passing TDs (nine) and fantasy points allowed to QBs. All four QBs that have faced New Orleans have produced 16-plus fantasy points. Rookie bumps will pop up, but even without Malik Nabers, Dart has the skill set to hang on the fantasy radar. He’s worth scooping up on waivers and is a streaming option in Week 5.
Lineup locks: Justin Fields, Javonte Williams, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson
Fantasy scoop: Woody Marks appears to be the new lead back in Houston. The fourth-round rookie’s snap share has increased each week and peaked at 58% in Week 4 against Tennessee. Marks posted a strong 17-69-1 rushing line and added 4-50-1 on five targets. Marks’ rushing volume benefited from the one-sided win, but he was utilized throughout the game (not just in garbage time), and his standout ability as a receiver will keep him involved in the passing game.
With Joe Mixon seemingly nowhere close to a return and Nick Chubb (15 touches last week) fading a bit, Marks has found his way into the weekly RB2/flex mix. He has a terrific Week 5 matchup against an injury-plagued Ravens defense that has allowed the most TDs (seven) and fantasy points to running backs.
Rush, who adds almost zero with his legs, played just well enough to help CeeDee Lamb amass 17.8 fantasy PPG, which ranked 14th among receivers. Baltimore’s Rush-led passing game will have its hands full against a good Houston pass defense, and the Ravens could turn to a run-heavy approach with Henry (Houston has allowed the seventh-highest EPA to the run but the third-lowest to the pass). Henry and Flowers will see enough work to warrant a spot in your lineup, but everyone else is best avoided.
Fantasy scoop: With James Conner and Trey Benson on IR, the Cardinals will turn to Emari Demercado and Michael Carter in the backfield. Demercado out-snapped Carter 26-4 last week (Benson played 34 snaps), so while he’s the favorite for 1A duties, it’s very possible this is a near-even split. Demercado has cleared four carries in a game only three times in his career (all in 2023), whereas Carter — once a lead back for the Jets — has 327 carries and 151 targets to his name in his career.
Arizona RBs weren’t very productive last week, but the matchup was very tough (Seattle is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry to RBs) and life will be easier in Week 5 against a Titans defense that has allowed 5.0 YPC, the most TDs (seven) and fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. This is a backfield best avoided, but if you’re in a tough spot, Demercado is the preferred flex.
Sure, Joe Burrow won’t be back any time soon, but Brown’s combination of heavy usage and a more-appealing schedule will help keep him fantasy relevant. He’s a fine RB2/flex play against a Lions defense that has allowed one TD to the opposing lead back in all four games.
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Jayden Daniels, Omarion Hampton, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, Deebo Samuel, Ladd McConkey, Terry McLaurin
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
Fantasy scoop: Matthew Stafford is fresh off a 375-yard, three-TD, 27.4-fantasy point effort in Week 4, but he’s still not a reliable starting option in fantasy. Stafford, who also threw two TDs in Weeks 2 and 3, sits top 5 among quarterbacks in completions, passing yards and passing TDs. And yet he’s only 12th in fantasy points. Why? Stafford contributes so little with his legs that running the ball has actually lost him points this season (-4 yards on 10 carries). Stafford hasn’t cleared 112 rushing yards in a season since 2016 and has one rushing TD during the span. At age 37, that’s not going to change any time soon.
Fantasy scoop: Not 100% healthy at times early this season, Bowers is off to a slow start. The second-year tight end produced 103 yards on eight targets in Week 1, but left that game early and has fallen short of 50 yards and 10.0 fantasy points in three-straight outings. The good news is that Bowers doesn’t appear limited (his route participation matches his 2024 usage) and in Week 4, though his six targets may seem weak, he actually saw a season-high 30% target share (Geno Smith attempted only 21 passes). Better days are likely ahead for Bowers, and that very well could start this week against a Colts defense that has allowed eight passing TDs (fifth most).
Shadow Report: The Giants may be down Nabers for the rest of the season, but the team’s new-look WR room is positioned with a very good Week 5 matchup. The Saints have allowed the fourth-highest EPA against the pass, as well as the fourth-most fantasy points to the perimeter. They sit midpack in overall fantasy points allowed to receivers, but only because they’ve faced so little volume (fifth-fewest WR targets). Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton can be upgraded against Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alontae Taylor and rookie Quincy Riley (who replaced Isaac Yiadom during Week 4’s loss).
Fantasy scoop: Yes, Fields is a lineup lock this week. The Dallas defense simply cannot stop the pass, having allowed at least 24 fantasy points to the opposing QB in all four games. The Cowboys have allowed the most passing yards (1,237), most passing TDs (10) and the highest YPA (9.2), not to mention a 26-122-2 rushing line to quarterbacks. Fields has played two full games, and both were strong fantasy efforts: 29.5 points against Pittsburgh in Week 1 and 27.1 points against Miami on Monday night. He posted massive rushing lines of 12-48-2 and 7-81-1, respectively, in the two games, while also throwing for 200-plus yards and one TD in both. Field’s dual-threat ability combined with the elite matchup sets him up for a strong Week 5 showing.