Week 5 Recap: 3-2 (17-13 overall)
LSU/Ole Miss – Under 54.5 – W
Bama +3.5 – W
Oregon +3.5 – W
Arizona +6.5 – L
Washington +8.5 – L
Another 3-2 week in the books – it is not exactly where I would like to be, but another positive week is nothing to complain about. I thought Arizona and Washington would put up more of a fight, but I can’t fault my thought process. Another great week of college football is upon us – let’s find some winners and get some more separation in the W/L column.
West Virginia at 23BYU (O/U 47.5) (Friday 10:30 PM est)
I am going to keep this analysis pretty simple. BYU is giving up an average of 9.25 points per game while scoring about 28 points in their last 3 games. Simple math tells us this game goes under by at least a full touchdown. West Virginia is missing their star RB and BYU has a freshman QB rocking #47 that has yet to throw for 250 yards this year. He is being featured as a game manager due to BYU’s elite defense – there is nothing wrong with that, but BYU is not winning games due to elite QB play. The Cougars will smell blood early, control the game from start to finish, and maul the Mountaineers. Under 47.5 is the play.
14Iowa State at Cincinnati (-1.5)
I will be totally honest I have no idea why Iowa State is an underdog in this game. I get Cincinnati is at home. I get they beat Kansas on the road and their QB, Sorsby, looks good. I get all that. We have to remember this is Cincinnati we are talking about though, who have not had an ounce of relevance since joining the Big 12. Here is why Iowa State will win: ISU has won its last 7 against unranked opponents, while Cincy has lost its last 4 games against ranked opponents. Cincy has failed to cover 7 of its last 8 October games as the favorite while ISU has covered their last 4 as an underdog. Enough stats and overthinking. ISU is the better team. Tornado warning coming to Cincy this Saturday. Cyclones ML, keep the points.
16Vanderbilt at 10Alabama (-10.5)
The last time Vandy and Bama were ranked in a matchup was in 1937.. what a time to be alive and witness this matchup. I took Bama last week to take down Georgia, and they did just that. They have certainly exorcised whatever demons they had in week 1, and look like the Bama we have come to expect over the years. Vandy, on the other hand, is one of the great stories early in the season. Before Diego Pavia arrived, Vandy was looked at as a free win – that is no longer the case. There is some truth to the sentiment that the Commodores haven’t played anyone, but they did handedly beat Virginia Tech and South Carolina. I don’t think Vandy will be able to get the win like they did last season, but I do think they will throw everything at Alabama to try and beat them. Pavia, although he is Unc status, has the juice to keep this one close and I am sure he would love to relive the moment he burst onto the scene in last year’s win. Too many points, give me the Commodores to cover the 10.5.
3Miami (-4.5) at 18Florida State
Miami has continued to roll from the jump this year. So far they have handled two decent in state opponents and look to secure the trifecta in this one. Beck has looked good (not his appearance, dude is ugly), not great – but he continues to get the job done. Florida State is coming off of a tough upset loss at the hands of Virginia and a bounce back is much needed. Was the Bama game week 1 a fluke? Are they the team that beat Bama or the team that lost to Virginia..? That is the question that very well may be answered this Saturday night. Miami has had the luxury of getting two top 20 opponents at home this year, but they travel to a certainly raucous environment in Tallahassee in this one. I think that matters and I think that could be the difference. Florida State’s offense will keep them in it and allow them to cover. This is my third time fading Miami and although I am a little hesitant, I think this is the perfect spot to do it. Florida State Seminoles +4.5.
Kansas (-4.5) at UCF
This should be an underrated and fun matchup in the Big 12. Kansas is coming off of a shootout against Cincinnati where they came up just a little short. UCF got handled by a Kansas State team that looked like they forgot how to play football for the first 4 weeks of the season. Both teams clearly have something to prove. Jalon Daniels has been playing well and is tied for 2nd in the country in passing touchdowns, only behind the future Heisman winner Sawyer Robertson – elite company. I don’t think UCF is a good team to be honest. They lost by two touchdowns against their first real opponent (UNC is a dumpster fire so I am not counting them) and I don’t think they can hang with the Jayhawks. I think Scott Frost may be able to turn it around eventually, but it won’t start this week. Jayhawks -4.5.
Final Picks:
WVU/BYU- Under 47.5
Iowa State ML
Vandy +10.5
FSU +4.5
Kansas -4.5
Written By Blake Mire @BlakeMire on X
This is not financial advice, tail or fade at your own risk.