What is a key to watch in Dodgers-Phillies? (1:18)Hunter Pence joins Scott Van Pelt to preview the National League Division Series between the Dodgers and Phillies. (1:18)
NLDS: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The 2025 MLB division series matchups are starting to take shape with the Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees all moving on one day after the Los Angeles Dodgers became the first team to advance out of the wild-card round.
L.A.’s sweep sets up a division series showdown with the Philadelphia Phillies in one NLDS with the Cubs set to face the Milwaukee Brewers in the other.
Meanwhile, in the American League, the Tigers are headed west to take on the Seattle Mariners, and the Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays will square off in an AL East duel.
ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield are here to break it all down as every division series matchup is set.
Blue Jays concern level: Red hot. The Jays’ regular season success sent fan expectations soaring. Could the three-decade title drought be quenched at last? — Doolittle
A propensity to put the ball in play and strong defense. The Blue Jays’ 17.8% strikeout rate this season was the lowest in the majors and the sixth-lowest by a club since 2015. Two of the five teams with lower rates — the 2015 Kansas City Royals and 2017 Houston Astros — won the World Series.
Defensively, Toronto ranked fourth in the majors in defensive runs saved and ninth in Outs Above Average. In short, it puts pressure on teams to make plays, and it makes the plays themselves. It’s a sound combination for October when every out is crucial.
Upset forecast: (Brewers win 56.2% of simulations) The Hiawatha Series! Yes, we tend to label these geographic rivalries with the interstates that connect them but in this case, let’s go with the Amtrak line that runs back and forth between Milwaukee and Chicago every day.
Upset? The Cubs would be no Cinderella if they knock off Milwaukee, but the good people of Wisconsin would indeed be very upset.
Brewers concern level: Moderate. Losing to the hated Cubs would be a crusher, but this is an unflappable Brewers team, full of the hubris of youth. The clubhouse is upbeat and tightly knit, and this still-overlooked group will be aching to not only dispatch their rivals but also to show the nation why they were baseball’s best during the season. — Doolittle
The talk going into the series was how the Padres’ bullpen — which was arguably the best in baseball in the regular season — was dominant enough to maybe carry the Padres all the way to the World Series.
This group has kind of been reconstructed on the fly throughout the season, but it looks really good right now. The secret weapon is veteran journeyman Brad Keller, who only had three saves in the regular season, but had a terrific year after adding 4 mph to his fastball and is now closing after Daniel Palencia got injured in September and missed a couple of weeks. (He’s back now.)
The second-half slides of Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong received a lot of attention, but Seiya Suzuki’s own slump was just as important to the Cubs’ offensive struggles in the second half. Suzuki hit .263 with an .867 OPS through the All-Star break but .213 with a .688 OPS after.
The other concern arose because of a couple key injuries to the pitching staff, with Trevor Megill, the Brewers’ closer most of the season, returning from a lengthy absence and starter Brandon Woodruff battling a lat strain and not pitching since Sept. 17.
Mariners concern level: Historic. Seattle knows it’s facing a tough opponent but they match up well with the Tigers. But when you’ve never been to the World Series, there is a baseline level of concern that is always going to be kind of high. — Doolittle
Give the Tigers credit for turning the page on their near-catastrophic September that saw them blow the biggest final-month lead in MLB history by beating the team that edged them for the division crown in the wild-card round.
Of course, it helped to have the ultimate momentum changer in Tarik Skubal in Game 1. Skubal’s 14-strikeout performance was a postseason masterpiece and sets up this possibility: Can he pull a Madison Bumgarner circa 2014 and put his team on his back for an entire month?
Here’s the good news for the Tigers: Skubal can start in Game 2 of the ALDS on four days of rest. Then, thanks to two off days, if the series goes five games he can start Game 5 on four days of rest. Skubal started back-to-back games on four days of rest only once all season since he generally worked on five or more days, but that one time turned out just fine: In the second of those starts, he allowed one hit with 13 strikeouts.
So, yes, Skubal’s dominance can continue, but they’ll need others on the staff to step up against a Seattle offense that was the best in baseball in September. The performance against Cleveland was encouraging, but Cleveland’s lineup is not Seattle’s lineup.
Besides Skubal? Let’s go with a pair here: Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize. The Tigers are in the unique position of having arguably the best pitcher on the planet and also not really having a fourth starter, so it’s crucial they get something from at least one of their other two starters in the games Skubal doesn’t pitch. Neither made it through five innings in the wild-card round and Detroit is going to need more length than that to get past Seattle. — Schoenfield
We all know the Mariners can pitch. The problem in recent years has been the offense. This year was different. The Mariners sprinted past the shorthanded Astros in September to win the AL West with Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez carrying the offensive surge.
Upset forecast: (Dodgers win more simulations) Why no number in that parenthetical information? We’d have to use too many decimals! The Dodgers did win more sims, but their edge was four — out of 10,000 runs of the forecasting machinery. In that sense, there can’t possibly be an upset in this matchup between, quite possibly, the two strongest teams left in the bracket.
This feels like a matchup that the bullpens will decide, and even that is a toss-up. The Dodgers led the majors in blown saves during the second half, but their bullpen numbers are better than Philadelphia’s since the start of September. Maybe it’s as simple as this: When in doubt, pick the team that has Shohei Ohtani.
As for Schwarber: He has proved before he’s a tough out in October, and coming off his best season, he’s primed for a big postseason.
Upset forecast: (Blue Jays win 47.4% of simulations.) Forecasts like this spur fundamental questions best left to the ancient Greeks, like, “What is the essence of an upset?” The Blue Jays won the AL East, beat the Yankees in eight of their 13 meetings, and earned a first-round bye and the AL’s top seed. But the Yankees more than doubled the Jays’ run differential. The disconnect between runs and wins can be explained easily: Toronto went 43-30 in games decided by one or two runs; New York was 35-36.
The Blue Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500 million contract to serve as the franchise’s cornerstone for another 14 years. The assignment includes impressing when it matters most. Guerrero is just 3-for-22 with one extra-base hit, two walks and five strikeouts in six career playoff games divided into two-game slices over three postseasons. It’s a small sample size, but the Blue Jays went 0-6 in those games. Guerrero now has a chance to fuel a deep October run after another strong regular season. — Castillo
This is the first postseason edition and the Brewers, who posted baseball’s best record and run differential, are the statistical favorites. But the reasons to pick the Cubs are many: They offset many of Milwaukee’s advantages in speed and defense, and have more power. The Brewers’ pitching staff was better overall but struggled with health down the stretch. The Brewers have youth and the most athletic position group in the majors; the Cubs have more star power, especially if Kyle Tucker gets going.
Why not? The numbers are legit. Keller is throwing 98 and had a 2.07 ERA. Palencia hit 100 mph in his Game 1 appearance. Drew Pomeranz, brought in from the Mariners in April, is a good lefty option who had a 2.17 ERA. Andrew Kittredge got a hold in Game 1, started Game 2 as the opener and got the save in Game 3 after Keller’s sudden control issues. Caleb Thielbar gives them a second good lefty. That’s a strong group that Craig Counsell can mix and match with and provide for a Cubs rotation without rookie Cade Horton, one of the best starters in the majors in the second half.
Upset forecast: (Mariners win 51.6% of simulations) The Mariners’ baseline is slightly better because of their much better finish to the season than Detroit’s woeful ending but over the full 162-game slate, they had only a five-run edge in differential. In other words, if Detroit were to beat Seattle, it would at best be a very mild upset. The Tigers could get two Tarik Skubal starts in the ALDS on normal rest, Game 2 in Seattle and a potential decisive Game 5 at T-Mobile Park. That, as much as anything, makes Detroit a threat to advance to the ALCS. Their late-season swoon was considerable but what we’ve seen over the past week is a Tigers club that has already shaken that off.
Raleigh could end up winning AL MVP, but Rodriguez might be the team’s most important hitter in October. Rodriguez made the All-Star team again this summer, but he was a significantly better hitter post-All-Star break — continuing his trend as a late-season performer. The center fielder led the Mariners in batting average, wRC+, OPS and fWAR in the second half. As the man tasked to protect Raleigh in the lineup, a strong showing from Rodriguez could force pitchers to attack Raleigh — and that’s a tough recipe for success for opposing teams. — Castillo
Trea Turner feels like the key guy here. Schwarber and Bryce Harper have been clutch playoff performers throughout their careers, but the Phillies will need offense from more than just those two — and that’s been a problem the past two postseasons. Turner had his best season with the Phillies but missed most of September with a hamstring injury, returning only for two at-bats in the final game of the regular season. He sets the table for Schwarber and Harper. If he’s getting on base, that’s a very good thing. — Schoenfield
