play0:47Will Drake Maye continue his early-season fantasy success?Daniel Dopp explains why he likes Drake Maye to continue his fantasy success in Week 5 against the Bills.
Is Stefon Diggs a top-20 WR in fantasy? (1:17)Daniel Dopp explains why Stefon Diggs brings a lot of value to fantasy managers’ lineups. (1:17)
Will Drake Maye continue his early-season fantasy success?Daniel Dopp explains why he likes Drake Maye to continue his fantasy success in Week 5 against the Bills.
Daniel Dopp explains why he likes Drake Maye to continue his fantasy success in Week 5 against the Bills.
Sunday’s slate of Week 5 games culminates with an AFC East matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills on “Sunday Night Football.”
New England (2-2) is coming off a 42-13 shellacking of the Carolina Panthers, while undefeated Buffalo disposed of the New Orleans Saints, 31-19.
Buffalo, the Super Bowl favorite at +425, has won its last three games by double-digits and is favored by 7.5 points for Sunday’s tilt.
Here are the odds and trends, plus picks, props and analysis from our experts to help you bet Sunday night’s game.
Will Drake Maye continue his early-season fantasy success?
Bowen: Maye is averaging 24.5 yards rushing per game this season, using his dual-threat ability to create as a runner on scramble attempts. And Maye will be forced to move against a Bills defense that leads the league with a pressure rate of 45.9%. Look for the second-year pro to extend plays outside of the pocket and pick up rushing numbers in this one.
Loza: Shakir has drawn fewer looks and run fewer routes than Keon Coleman four weeks into 2025, but his matchup is exploitable in Week 5. The Patriots have been middle of the pack versus the slot, allowing 275 receiving yards to that area of the field. Coincidentally, that’s where Shakir spends most of his time, recording a slot snap share of over 59% (WR12).
Moody: Given this game features one of the highest point totals on the slate, it’s a great opportunity for Kincaid to shine. Kincaid has cleared this line in three out of four games this season and now faces a Patriots defense that has given up the seventh-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Maldonado: I like this more than any yardage, touchdown or alt number on the board because it perfectly aligns with the most likely game script: Bills lead, Patriots trail. Buffalo’s high-pressure rate historically spikes checkdown volume. Stevenson is top five among RBs in yards per route run and has already cleared this number in 50% of games without the negative script he’s likely to get Sunday. If the Bills cover, Stevenson’s usage almost certainly gets him three catches. It’s a plus-money play with a high probability of hitting and minimal dependency on broken plays or touchdowns.
Additionally, Christian Gonzalez, who made his 2025 debut in Week 4 and limited Tetairoa McMillan to two catches and 31 receiving yards while in his assignment, figures to shadow Coleman. Gonzalez recorded a shadow rate of nearly 59% while giving up an average of 32.2 receiving yards in 2024. Facing softer coverage and in a game with a projected point total of 49.5, Shakir figures to emerge as Allen’s leading receiver on Sunday night. He’s facing plus coverage, has cleared the above line in three of four games and has found the end zone in back-to-back contests.
Is Stefon Diggs a top-20 WR in fantasy? (1:17)Daniel Dopp explains why Stefon Diggs brings a lot of value to fantasy managers’ lineups. (1:17)
Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET.
Khalil Shakir to go OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-110), score Anytime TD (+210)
Dalton Kincaid to go OVER 31.5 receiving yards (-120)
Daniel Dopp explains why Stefon Diggs brings a lot of value to fantasy managers’ lineups. (1:17)
The Patriots have covered four straight meetings with two outright wins as underdogs.
The Bills are 11-4 ATS in their past 15 games as single-digit favorites.
Unders are 39-19 on “Sunday Night Football” since 2023.