Stephen A. has some words for James Franklin (2:24)Stephen A. Smith calls out James Franklin’s inability to win big games after Penn State’s loss to Oregon followed by another loss vs. UCLA. (2:24)
The SEC is eating up half the spots in the latest College Football Playoff top 12 projection — and Texas isn’t even taking up one of them.
The Longhorns are out following their loss to Florida in the Swamp. Penn State is out following an embarrassing loss at once-winless UCLA. Florida State is out after a second loss, this time to rival Miami.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers came back into the conversation this week, in part because Penn State tumbled out and opened a spot. They ranked No. 12 in our projection. If the playoff were today, though, the committee’s No. 12 team would get knocked out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. If LSU is going to truly legitimize itself in the playoff race, it has to move up into a top-10 spot, which is the safest place to be. That’s not going to be easy, considering LSU has the 10th-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. The metrics give LSU the 10th-best chance in the SEC to reach the conference championship game (4.4%). Saturday’s game against South Carolina is critical because the next three opponents (No. 20 Vandy, No. 5 Texas A&M and No. 8 Alabama) are ranked, and two of the three games are on the road. If LSU is going to be a factor in the postseason, it has to improve its running game and its big-play capabilities. The run game ranks 119th in the country with 104.8 yards per game, and LSU is No. 103 in plays over 20 yards (18).
Spotlight: Michigan. The Wolverines have won three straight games since the Week 2 road loss at Oklahoma, and they’re growing along with freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game (22.5%) behind Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana, but the latter two play each other Saturday. If Michigan can win at USC on Saturday, the picture begins to change, but ESPN’s FPI gives USC a 68.5% chance to win. If Michigan loses, it would be in a must-win situation against rival Ohio State in the regular-season finale to avoid a third loss and have a chance at an at-large bid. (That is assuming, of course, that Michigan doesn’t stumble along the way to sneaky good teams such as Washington and Maryland.) The Wolverines have one of the nation’s top rushing offenses and defenses heading into USC. Speaking of the Trojans …
The enigma: Virginia. First the Cavaliers caught the nation’s attention with the Friday night spotlight win against Florida State, and then they eked out an overtime road win against Louisville. Now they’ve got the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (45.3%), according to ESPN Analytics. That’s because ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia to lose at Duke on Nov. 15, its toughest remaining game. Virginia is similar to Georgia Tech in that it’s unlikely to face any ranked conference opponents the rest of the season, but it doesn’t have a big-time nonconference opponent to help compensate for that. So if the Hoos don’t win the ACC, that Week 2 loss at NC State could come back to haunt them as a two-loss conference runner-up. Virginia fans should be cheering for FSU to run the table because the more the Noles win, the better that Sept. 26 win against them looks.
Spotlight: BYU. The undefeated Cougars are here because they’re on a collision course with Texas Tech to play for the Big 12 title. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 championship game (43%) behind the Red Raiders (67.3%). This will get settled on the field before then, as those teams play each other Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. It’s currently the only game on the Cougars’ schedule that ESPN’s FPI gives them less than a 50% chance to win. Even if BYU loses that game, if it’s the Cougars’ only loss, they could face Texas Tech again in the league championship. BYU would lock up a spot with the Big 12 title, but two losses to the Red Raiders would likely knock them out as the conference runner-up. That depends, though, on how many Big 12 opponents are ranked by the selection committee.
The enigma: UNLV. The Rebels are undefeated and have done something Penn State could not — beat UCLA. UNLV has the edge against Boise State following the Broncos’ second loss in Week 6, but those two teams will face each other Oct. 18 at Boise State. They’re also projected to meet again in the Mountain West Conference title game. Boise State (45.1%) still has the best chance to win the league, with UNLV (33.8%) a close second. According to ESPN Analytics, UNLV has the fifth-best chance to reach the CFP (9.5%).
Stephen A. has some words for James Franklin (2:24)Stephen A. Smith calls out James Franklin’s inability to win big games after Penn State’s loss to Oregon followed by another loss vs. UCLA. (2:24)
Stephen A. Smith calls out James Franklin’s inability to win big games after Penn State’s loss to Oregon followed by another loss vs. UCLA. (2:24)
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference: ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten SEC | Independent | Group of 5 Bracket
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Ole Miss No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama No. 10 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Oklahoma No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M No. 11 Tennessee/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Oregon No. 10 Texas Tech/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Miami
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ) No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) No. 3 Oregon No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)