Seth WalderOct 8, 2025, 06:25 AM ETCloseSeth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
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Adam Schefter: Brock Purdy is still the 49ers’ QB1Adam Schefter tells Pat McAfee that despite Mac Jones’ impressive play, Brock Purdy is still the 49ers’ primary quarterback.
Adam Schefter tells Pat McAfee that despite Mac Jones’ impressive play, Brock Purdy is still the 49ers’ primary quarterback.
McAfee wonders if Bucs are a ‘team of destiny’Pat McAfee and A.J. Hawk discuss the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ electric win over the Seahawks.
Herm Edwards: Travis Hunter would play 90% on defense for meHerm Edwards details why he would play Travis Hunter primarily on defense and situationally on offense.
Herm Edwards details why he would play Travis Hunter primarily on defense and situationally on offense.
Part of the predictions game is seeing how our forecasts fare. It’s easy to make a prediction, but we also need to check in on them.
In the preseason, I made one bold prediction for every team as part of our preview of the 2025 season. These were big swings — things I thought could happen but would each be an upset. And five weeks into the season, we’ve learned a lot.
So it’s time to revisit those predictions and find out how we are doing. Which ones are on track? Which could still happen? And which were so far off that we might as well make a new one? In some cases, five weeks means everything has changed. In others, not so much. In fact … one preseason prediction already hit!
Why we nailed it: Dart started in Week 4 after a slow start from veteran quarterback Russell Wilson, which led to an 0-3 beginning of the season for the Giants. The rookie won in his debut against the Chargers, though he struggled this past Sunday with two interceptions and a 50.2 Total QBR (ninth worst in Week 5) in a loss to the Saints.
Why it’s on target: Kincaid is on pace for 976 yards (287 through five games). There is still a long way to go, particularly because Kincaid has run routes on only 57% of the Bills’ dropbacks so far this season, but he’s catching everything. Kincaid is sporting a plus-15% catch rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, best of all tight ends with at least 20 targets.
Why it’s on target: They have sacked opponents just five times, tied with the Bears for the fewest in the league — but Chicago has played only four games with its Week 5 bye. Carolina ranks 29th in pass rush win rate and is not expected to be ahead in many games as the sixth-worst team in ESPN’s Football Power Index. That matters because sacks occur more often when a team is winning.
Why it’s on target: Chicago currently ranks fourth with a 69% pass block win rate. There are two big reasons for the turnaround:
Original prediction: Defensive tackle Moro Ojomo — who entered the season with zero career sacks — will record at least five sacks and finish in the top 10 in pass rush win rate.
Why it’s on target: Ojomo has two sacks and is currently tied for 10th among defensive tackles with a 13% pass rush win rate. The funny part was that this prediction was conceived partially out of belief that the Eagles’ situation fueled Milton Williams’ numbers and that his replacement would be put in a great spot. And while playing defensive tackle next to Jalen Carter might put players in favorable situations, Williams is also thriving outside that role in New England, too.
Why it’s on target: Considering that Harmon missed the first two games of the season with a sprained MCL, I’m surprised this is still in range. But Harmon’s one sack puts him in a multi-person tie for the rookie defensive tackle sack lead with Jamaree Caldwell and Omarr Norman-Lott. Harmon’s 6% pass rush win rate and 9% pressure rate don’t have me overly optimistic, but then again, he’s playing on a good defensive line. Perhaps that’s enough to overcome the competition.
Why it’s on target: Huff is back. After one year lost in the Philadelphia wilderness, Huff has reemerged in San Francisco playing like his old self for his old coach, Robert Saleh. Huff has three sacks this season, putting him on pace for more than 10. Huff’s 19% pass rush win rate ranks 20th among edge rushers. While Nick Bosa’s season-ending torn ACL makes it less likely for Huff’s sack rate to stay super high, it could eventually mean more playing time and more opportunities to get there.
Original prediction: Nickel cornerback Garrett Williams will lead all slot defenders in yards per coverage snap allowed.
Why there’s still a chance: The good news? Williams currently ranks second in this stat among slot defenders with at least 50 coverage snaps (0.4, behind only the Chargers’ Derwin James Jr.). The bad news? A knee injury in Week 2 landed Williams on the IR. Still, it’s within the realm of possibility that he could return to action and lead the category, especially after his strong start.
Original prediction: Running back Keaton Mitchell will have at least four games with 20-plus fantasy points.
Why there’s still a chance: I know it seems foolish to cling to this prediction considering Mitchell was inactive for the Ravens’ first four games, but I am. Mitchell has been inactive behind Derrick Henry, pass-catching option Justice Hill and kick returner Rasheen Ali. But if Henry were to get hurt, I think Mitchell would be the new top back on early downs.
I had imagined that he would hit this prediction by working in more with Henry and breaking some long runs — referencing his 201 rush yards over expectation on 47 carries in 2023, according to NFL Next Gen Stats — and I suppose that’s still possible. And the upside Mitchell presents is why I am (perhaps stubbornly) continuing to hold onto him in a couple of fantasy leagues.
Why there’s still a chance: The trade deadline hasn’t happened yet! And the Browns have been, as expected, a disappointment and non-contender. Both players are veterans in the final year of their contracts, and the team has Teven Jenkins as a capable interior substitute. It would make sense to trade at least one of Bitonio or Teller.
Original prediction: WR KaVontae Turpin will record multiple kick returns for touchdowns this season.
Why there’s still a chance: He hasn’t scored a kick return for a touchdown yet, but returns are way up in 2025 thanks to a change in the touchback rule. As a result, Turpin has 16 kick returns already after recording 27 all of last season. And he has recorded an above-average 91 return yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. This could still happen.
Original prediction: CB Riley Moss will record at least five interceptions in a breakout third season.
Why there’s still a chance: This is a real long shot considering Moss doesn’t have a pick yet this season and his 1.3 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats, is higher than average for an outside corner. But there’s one number that has me holding out some hope: No cornerback in the NFL has been thrown at more than Moss (40 targets). Those extra targets are extra chances at picks. Still, I doubt this comes through.
Original prediction: Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson will record at least 100 pass rush wins, something that has happened only twice since the metric was created in 2017.
Why there’s still a chance: Hutchinson is off to a nice start with five sacks through five games, but he’s still well off the 100-win pace. He has 19 pass rush wins to date, putting him on track to reach 65. That would be a nice total, but not historic.
So why still a chance? Hutchinson took a couple of games to get going — which is understandable, considering he was returning after the season-ending broken leg he suffered a year ago — and has shown in the past that he’s capable of putting up huge numbers in streaks (like when he recorded 36 pass rush wins through five games last season).
Original prediction: The Chiefs will have at least 12 plays that go for 40-plus yards in the regular season.
Why there’s still a chance: Kansas City has recorded two such plays this season, so this is still a long shot. Still, that’s halfway to the season total from a year ago. Plus, we’ll see if the return of wide receiver Rashee Rice following his six-game suspension opens up more plays downfield.
The problem is the injury. If Alt misses another game that would be two games completely missed plus most of a third. It’s still feasible to win an award after missing a game or two, but it becomes more of a long shot with each additional game missed. Hopefully — for Alt, the Chargers and this prediction — he’s back on the field soon.
Why there’s still a chance: He’s not that far off. Olave currently ranks 23rd among wide receivers in fantasy points with 61.4. But I think there’s good reason to believe he’ll move up the ranks as the season continues. Olave ranks second in expected fantasy points, according to ESPN’s Mike Clay.
Why there’s still a chance: They have an 8% run rate over expectation, which ranks fifth best in the NFL. That’s well within striking distance of the lead. (The Saints are at 10%.) And I don’t see any reason why that should change since Justin Fields is still at quarterback. Remember, this is run rate over expectation we’re looking at, so the Jets can still lead the category even if they continue to fall behind in games.