play1:28How does Fred VanVleet’s torn ACL affect the RocketsThe “NBA Today” crew reacts to how Fred VanVleet tearing an ACL will affect the Rockets in the 2025-26 season.
play1:49Stephen A.: I’m giving up everyone but Brunson to get Giannis to New YorkStephen A. Smith explains why everyone except Jalen Brunson should be available from the Knicks to get Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Stephen A.’s passionate prediction for the New York Knicks (1:27)Stephen A. Smith gets amped up over how he thinks the New York Knicks will fair next season. (1:27)
How does Fred VanVleet’s torn ACL affect the RocketsThe “NBA Today” crew reacts to how Fred VanVleet tearing an ACL will affect the Rockets in the 2025-26 season.
The “NBA Today” crew reacts to how Fred VanVleet tearing an ACL will affect the Rockets in the 2025-26 season.
Stephen A.: I’m giving up everyone but Brunson to get Giannis to New YorkStephen A. Smith explains why everyone except Jalen Brunson should be available from the Knicks to get Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Stephen A. Smith explains why everyone except Jalen Brunson should be available from the Knicks to get Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Kevin PeltonOct 8, 2025, 07:00 AM ETClose Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE systemFollow on X
Which NBA teams might be better or worse than expected this season? My stats-based projections help answer that question.
Based on the scoring of projections at the APBRmetrics forum, my recalibrated forecast had the second-lowest root mean squared error, a method that heavily penalizes bad misses. It also had the strongest correlation to actual wins and losses.
To project teams, I start with player ratings based on a combination of my SCHOENE stats-based projections and luck-adjusted regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) provided by Krishna Narsu that covers the past three seasons. For each team, I project games played based on those missed to injury over the past three years and current absences then subjectively guess at the distribution of playing time.
The result is an expected wins total given average health, which is comparable to teams’ over/under season win totals at ESPN BET. In addition to ranking each conference’s teams 1 to 15, I’ve also tried to explain why my projections are higher or lower than those totals.
Let’s get to it, starting with the defending champions. Then we’ll look into who could emerge in a wide-open Eastern Conference and who might plummet down in the standings this season.
Why they project to be worse than their total: Oklahoma City’s line of 62.5 wins is appropriately monstrous. In fact, it’s the highest since the 2017-18 NBA champion Warriors were pegged at 67.5 wins, before finishing with 58. If anyone is going to hit that line, it’s the Thunder, who have the highest projection for any team in my model since … the 2017-18 Warriors.
Why they project to be better than their total: The Warriors might have the single most surprising projection for any team, nearly four wins clear of the non-Oklahoma City field. Having added RAPM superstar Jimmy Butler III for a full season — they won at a 63-win clip (76.7%) with Butler in the lineup last season — the Warriors also have 11 players who rate better than league average, tied with the Thunder for most of any team.
Why they project to be worse than their total: There’s not much disagreement here on the Nuggets, who are third in the Western Conference either way. The win-plus differential could easily be explained by the market’s optimism that Denver’s newcomers — Cameron Johnson, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas — will perform slightly better when paired with three-time MVP Nikola Jokic.
Why they project to be better than their total: A rosy projection for Kawhi Leonard’s health is a key factor. Leonard is projected for 66 games, along the lines of the 68 he played in 2023-24 but more than he has played in any other season with the Clippers. The Clippers also benefit from having no player rated worse than minus-0.5 points per 100 possessions projected for more than 200 minutes.
How does Fred VanVleet’s torn ACL affect the Rockets
Why they project to be worse than their total: I understand the bet on Victor Wembanyama emerging as a top-five player this season despite a projection that’s not quite so aggressive. We’ve seen similar breakthroughs for other transcendent prospects in Year 3. The rest of the roster, however, leaves much to be desired. No. 2 draft pick Dylan Harper is unlikely to help the Spurs win as a rookie, and Stephon Castle’s advanced stats in Year 1 didn’t match his Rookie of the Year reputation.
Why they project to be better than their total: Portland won 36 games in 2024-25 and upgraded in my projections by swapping Anfernee Simons for Jrue Holiday. The market is right to be skeptical of Portland’s 23-18 second half, driven in large part by poor opponent 3-point shooting (34%, second lowest in the NBA), which doesn’t typically carry over. Still, this line seems like an overcorrection for a team that wants to compete for a play-in spot.
Why they project to be better than their total: That’s a remarkably low figure for a team that has plenty of NBA talent. New Orleans ranked in the NBA’s top five in games lost to injury last season, and it should have better health this time around, even if Dejounte Murray’s Achilles rupture will cost him much of the campaign. Like the Suns, the Pelicans don’t benefit from improving their draft pick, which was sent to the Hawks on draft night.
Why they project to be better than their total: Teams with lines this low typically go over, including two of the bottom three teams from last season. In Walker Kessler and Lauri Markkanen, the Jazz have a pair of above-average starters to counteract the issues caused by their young backcourt.
Why they project to be worse than their total: If anything, my projections are probably more bullish on the Magic, who place just a hair behind Cleveland for the best in the East. The small discrepancy can probably be attributed to overlooking the schedule, a factor that is easy to overrate but one that is not specifically included in these projections. Orlando also dealt for Desmond Bane this past summer, a move that should contribute to their success.
Why they project to be better than their total: I might point out that Milwaukee has Giannis Antetokounmpo and leave it at that. The Bucks went 11-5 last season in games Antetokounmpo played without Damian Lillard, albeit against a weak schedule, and they’ve upgraded at center from Brook Lopez to Myles Turner. Due in part to that success, my model is higher on guards AJ Green, Kevin Porter Jr. and Ryan Rollins than conventional wisdom would suggest.
Stephen A.: I’m giving up everyone but Brunson to get Giannis to New York
Why they project to be worse than their total: The hype might be getting a little heavy for the Hawks, whose offseason was undoubtedly positive but perhaps not transformative in the short term. I’m higher than the model on Atlanta’s chances of avoiding the play-in, but I would still be surprised if they finish in the East’s top four.
Why they project to be worse than their total: Largely because of the loss of Malik Beasley, arguably Detroit’s second-best player last season after All-Star centerpiece Cade Cunningham. Replacements Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson don’t rate anywhere near as effectively as Beasley, who finished second in the NBA in made 3-pointers last season. Relying more on young talent could cause the Pistons to take a short-term step back.
Why they project to be better than their total: The Raptors’ moves have capped their upside but should produce a competitive team given reasonable health. Toronto was in the top 10 in games missed due to injury or illness, including Brandon Ingram sitting out the remainder of the season after being acquired from New Orleans at the deadline. One quiet move my model likes: the addition of Sandro Mamukelashvili, who was effective last season with the Spurs.
Why they project to be better than their total: We’re not far apart here. Adding Norman Powell should help Miami remain competitive with Tyler Herro sidelined to start the season following surgery to address an impingement in his left foot.
Why they project to be better than their total: This feels like a case of the market not paying attention. Chicago has won either 39 or 40 games across each of the past three campaigns, and they went 17-10 after the All-Star break last season without Zach LaVine. The Bulls have made it clear they’d rather pursue a play-in berth than a high spot entering the lottery. Chicago’s direction leaves much to be desired, but the Bulls should be competitive.
Why they project to be better than their total: Things can’t go as badly as last season, when the Hornets went 19-63 with the third-most games lost due to injury in the league. Adding Collin Sexton will give the Hornets a go-to scorer with LaMelo Ball on the bench or sidelined, and 2023 No. 2 pick Brandon Miller should be expected to take a step forward in his development.
Why they project to be worse than their total: Given the number of rookies on the roster, I expected Brooklyn to have the league’s worst projection. The Nets also have just two players who rate better than league average. Still, there’s enough talent with the additions of Haywood Highsmith, Terance Mann and Michael Porter Jr. in salary dumps to keep Brooklyn competitive to start the season.
Why they project to be worse than their total: Given how my model tends to compress the expected standings to avoid bad misses, this is a shockingly low projection for the Wizards. In fact, it’s the worst I’ve calculated for a team since adopting this model in 2010. After trading away veterans at the deadline and again this past summer, Washington doesn’t have a single player who rates in the league’s top 130.
Why they project to be worse than their total: Even before Fred VanVleet suffered a torn ACL on Sept. 22, Houston was projected under by the model. Kevin Durant hasn’t driven winning success at the level his box score stats would imply since being traded to the Suns at the 2023 deadline. The gap was exacerbated, however, once VanVleet was injured. The Rockets’ line has moved only a game from where it opened, and as I noted in the analysis of the injury, Houston’s projection dropped by nearly four wins without the rock-solid point guard.