Bill ConnellyOct 9, 2025, 05:59 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X
play1:01Huthchison: Arsenal are starting to learn to play with GyökeresDon Hutchison believes Arsenal are getting used to playing with Victor Gyökeres and discusses how they can get the most out of him.
play1:42Laurens: Enrique is the best manager in the worldGab & Juls discuss PSG’s 2-1 win over Barcelona in the Champions League.
play2:05Hislop: Barcelona need a plan BShaka Hislop and Alejandro Moreno discuss Barcelona’s 4-1 loss to Sevilla and question Hansi Flick’s lack of a Plan B.
How Kane made history by beating Ronaldo and Haaland to 100 goals (0:55)Take a look at how Harry Kane became the fastest player to score 100 goals for a European club this century. (0:55)
Huthchison: Arsenal are starting to learn to play with GyökeresDon Hutchison believes Arsenal are getting used to playing with Victor Gyökeres and discusses how they can get the most out of him.
Don Hutchison believes Arsenal are getting used to playing with Victor Gyökeres and discusses how they can get the most out of him.
Laurens: Enrique is the best manager in the worldGab & Juls discuss PSG’s 2-1 win over Barcelona in the Champions League.
Hislop: Barcelona need a plan BShaka Hislop and Alejandro Moreno discuss Barcelona’s 4-1 loss to Sevilla and question Hansi Flick’s lack of a Plan B.
Shaka Hislop and Alejandro Moreno discuss Barcelona’s 4-1 loss to Sevilla and question Hansi Flick’s lack of a Plan B.
Even without injured stars Jamal Musiala and Alphonso Davies, Vincent Kompany’s team has been untouchable in 2025-26. In nine matches — and nine wins — in the Bundesliga, UEFA Champions League and DFB-Pokal, they have outscored opponents by a combined 36-7. This sample includes wins by a combined 9-0 over ambitious German clubs RB Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt and a dominant 3-1 pounding of Chelsea in the Champions League.
Below are the top 20 teams in Europe’s Big Five leagues in what we’ll call “adjusted goal differential” — a mix of 30% goal differential and 70% xG differential in 11 vs. 11 situations — in league play and UEFA competitions. (We’ll ignore domestic cup play for now, since that’s featured a number of huge mismatches for some teams.)
The list below isn’t opponent-adjusted, and two months isn’t a long enough time to generate a true, predictive sample. But a list like this can still tell us who is in the best raw form right now. And no one has come close to the level Bayern have established thus far.
Past two months: Eight matches, 24 points (3.00 PPG), +2.72 adj. goal differential Remaining October schedule: Borussia Dortmund (Oct. 18), Club Brugge (Oct. 22; UEFA Champions League), at Borussia Monchengladbach (Oct. 25), at FC Cologne (Oct. 29)
Everything Kompany touches is working at the moment. Full back Raphaël Guerreiro is spending a lot of minutes in attacking midfield in Musiala’s absence. It’s working. Midfielder Konrad Laimer is the left back in Davies’ absence; he’s been the best left back in the league.
The question, of course, is whether they can keep it up. Of their nine players with at least 500 minutes in all competitions, seven are at least 28 years old. Depth is a huge question. But injuries and future changes in form are concerns for later — early in 2025-26, Bayern have been virtually perfect.
Past two months: Eight matches, 18 points (2.25 PPG), +1.58 adj. goal differential Remaining October schedule: At AS Roma (Oct. 18), at Union St.-Gilloise (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), at Napoli (Oct. 25), Fiorentina (Oct. 29)
Six different players have scored at least twice this season, while Federico Dimarco and 21-year-old Ange-Yoan Bonny (in only 131 minutes) are tied for the Serie A lead with three assists. Bonny shone for Chivu at Parma last season and came to Inter Milan over the summer; Dimarco is also first in chances created (22) and expected assists from completed passes (2.3).
Past two months: Nine matches, 22 points (2.44 PPG), +1.37 adj. goal differential Remaining October schedule: at Fulham (Oct. 18), Atlético Madrid (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), Crystal Palace (Oct. 26), Brighton & Hove Albion (Oct. 29)
With each progressive season, Arsenal become even more Arsenal. Through seven Premier League games, they’re first in the league in goals allowed (three), xG allowed (4.4), shots allowed (56), set piece goals (seven) and goal differential from set pieces (+5).
Huthchison: Arsenal are starting to learn to play with Gyökeres
Past two months: 10 matches, 27 points (2.70 PPG), +1.36 adj. goal differential Remaining October schedule: At Getafe (Oct. 19), Juventus (Oct. 22; UEFA Champions League), Barcelona (Oct. 26)
Past two months: Nine matches, 22 points (2.44 PPG), +1.02 adj. goal differential Remaining October schedule: Strasbourg (Oct. 17), at Bayer Leverkusen (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), at Brest (Oct. 25), at Lorient (Oct. 29)
We have a pretty fun-looking Ligue 1 race at the moment, with PSG leading the trio of Lyon, Marseille and Strasbourg — all of whom are on this list — by only one point each. But it’s fair to assume we know what will happen when the other half of PSG’s lineup shows back up.
Gab & Juls discuss PSG’s 2-1 win over Barcelona in the Champions League.
Past two months: Six matches, 13 points (2.17 PPG), +0.95 adj. goal differential Remaining October schedule: Fiorentina (Oct. 19), Pisa (Oct. 24), at Atalanta (Oct. 28)
Missing out on European competitions, as Milan did with last season’s moribund eighth-place finish, means your pocketbook takes a hit. But it can also mean less fatigue and a chance at an uncluttered league season. And when your most exciting offseason signing (Luka Modric) is 40 years old, you can turn that into a good thing.
Past two months: 10 matches, 22 points (2.20 PPG), +0.85 adj. goal differential Remaining October schedule: Girona (Oct. 18), Olympiacos (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), at Real Madrid (Oct. 26)
Still, Barça were unbeaten until last week’s 2-1 Champions League loss to PSG, and while they admittedly followed that up with a dire 4-1 loss to Sevilla, the underlying numbers (minus-0.5 xG differential) weren’t as bad as the score. Real Madrid might post a really high points total in LaLiga this season, but there’s nothing damningly wrong at Barça.
Past two months: 10 matches, 16 points (1.60 PPG), +0.82 adj. goal differential Remaining October schedule: Osasuna (Oct. 18), at Arsenal (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), at Real Betis (Oct. 27)
Atleti are a moving target. They won only one of their first six matches of the season, getting outplayed by Espanyol and suffering unlucky 1-1 draws against Elche, Alavés and Mallorca. They pummeled both Real Madrid (5-2) and Eintracht Frankfurt (5-1) in a nearly perfect week, but they laid an egg before the international break, suffering a moribund draw with Celta Vigo.
The high points were high enough to rank them eighth here, but describing Atleti’s form in any way is tenuous when it seems to change by the hour.
Past two months: 10 matches, 22 points (2.20 PPG), +0.77 adj. goal differential Remaining October schedule: At PSG (Oct. 17), Jagiellonia Bialystok (Oct. 23; UEFA Conference League), at Lyon (Oct. 26), AJ Auxerre (Oct. 29)
It’s an odd time to be a Strasbourg fan. On one hand, your club has basically been converted into a Chelsea farm team, and you hate it. On the other hand, despite ridiculous youth — the top 12 players in total minutes are 23 or younger — your team is playing some of its best ball in ages.
Le Racing haven’t enjoyed a top-five finish since 1979-80, but they’re currently just a point off of first place thanks to potent counterattacking. Forwards Joaquín Panichelli and Emanuel Emegha are thriving up front, and Strasbourg have both attempted the highest quantity of good shots (0.2 xG or higher) while allowing the fewest. That’s a good recipe.
Past two months: Nine matches, 21 points (2.33 PPG), +0.76 adj. goal differential Remaining October schedule: At Nice (Oct. 18), FC Basel (Oct. 23; UEFA Europa League), Strasbourg (Oct. 26), at Paris FC (Oct. 29)
One unexpected theme from this list: Bad headlines off the pitch don’t have much of an impact on the play on the pitch.
Lyon were nearly relegated this offseason due to financial issues, and were therefore limited in the moves they could make. But they’ve won eight of nine matches to position themselves just one point behind PSG.
Nine different players have scored at least one goal, and seven have recorded an assist. Moussa Niakhaté has been one of the steadiest buildup players and best defensive interventionists in the league. Manager Paulo Fonseca bombed at AC Milan last season, but as he proved at Lille, he knows what he’s doing in France.
Past two months: 10 matches, 19 points (1.90 PPG), +0.74 adj. goal differential Remaining October schedule: AFC Bournemouth (Oct. 18), AEK Larnaca (Oct. 23; UEFA Conference League), at Arsenal (Oct. 26), at Liverpool (Oct. 29)
Palace are hard to read. Including the Community Shield and Carabao Cup (and ignoring penalty shootout results), their first eight matches of the season produced six draws. They have drastically underachieved in the finishing department, scoring only 12 goals from shots worth 17.7 xG in the Premier League and Conference League, but opponents have scored only five from 10.2 xG as well. If one progresses toward the mean before the other, that could define Palace’s fall and winter.
They’re clearly playing an effective version of Oliver Glasner’s counterattacking ball, with sturdy contributions at both the front (from forward Jean-Philippe Mateta and winger Ismaïla Sarr) and back (center backs Marc Guéhi and Chris Richards). Their presence as only the second English team on this form list is a reminder of that, but their underlying stats make it impossible to figure out what is and isn’t sustainable.
Past two months: Eight matches, 18 points (2.25 PPG), +0.73 adj. goal differential Remaining October schedule: At Bayern Munich (Oct. 18), at F.C. København (Oct. 21; UEFA Champions League), FC Cologne (Oct. 25), at Eintracht Frankfurt (Oct. 28), at FC Augsburg (Oct. 31)
