Mike ClayOct 9, 2025, 08:02 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on X
Why Mike Clay is low on Cardinals RB Michael Carter (2:27)Mike Clay details why he is low on Cardinals RB Michael Carter and advises fantasy mangers to avoid starting him if possible. (2:27)
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
PHI-NYG | DEN-NYJ | ARI-IND | LAC-MIA | NE-NO | CLE-PIT | DAL-CAR SEA-JAX | LAR-BAL | TEN-LV | CIN-GB | SF-TB | DET-KC | BUF-ATL | CHI-WAS
Fantasy scoop: Theo Johnson is on the rise following Malik Nabers’ season-ending injury. After finding the end zone on five targets in Week 4, Johnson scored on two of his career-high seven targets in Week 5. Johnson’s 20% target share during the span is tied for highest on the team, though he’s yet to clear 34 yards in any game this season (he failed to clear 54 in a game during his rookie season).
Johnson’s increased usage is enough to vault him into the TE2 mix, but he’ll need to generate more yardage in order to find his way to starting consideration. He should be on benches against an Eagles defense that has allowed a league-low 4.1 yards per target and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, De’Von Achane, Quentin Johnston, Jaylen Waddle, Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey
Following Hampton’s departure on Sunday, Haskins played seven straight snaps, but then Vidal stepped in and handled 12 of the final 13 plays of the game. This is a situation best avoided in fantasy, especially considering how little the team targets its backs. But if we’re choosing one of the two, Haskins gets the nod, as he’s the better bet to lead the way in carries and goal-line work.
Perhaps most concerning is that Kendre Miller actually paced the team with 10 carries in Week 5 (Kamara had eight). Maybe that will flip back in Kamara’s direction in Week 6, but it’s also possible the 30-year-old’s workload will be limited to some extent. Both backs are set for a tough matchup against a Patriots defense that has allowed 3.2 yards per carry (third lowest) and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Kamara is a flex, and Miller belongs on benches.
Fannin, meanwhile, found the end zone for the first time on Sunday, hasn’t cleared six targets in a game since Week 1 and has fallen short of 30 yards in three straight. He’s on the field a ton (72% snap share) but is likely to max out as a TE2 as long as Njoku is in the fold.
Should Hubbard remain out this week, Dowdle will be a solid RB2 option in a revenge game and good matchup against a Dallas defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. Both Josh Jacobs and Breece Hall cleared 150 yards against Dallas over the last two weeks.
Shadow Report: Fresh off an impressive comeback win in Arizona, Titans WRs will draw a Week 6 upgrade against the Raiders’ struggling defense. Las Vegas has surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers both overall and to the perimeter. The Raiders sit in the top six in catches, yards and TDs allowed to the position. Ridley can be viewed as a viable WR3, whereas Ayomanor has some deep league flex appeal.
Perhaps Kincaid’s volume will increase enough to allow him consistent production, but considering how Buffalo likes to spread the ball around, that may be a long shot. The third-year tight end remains in the midst of a deep group of fringe TE1s and gets a Week 6 downgrade against an Atlanta defense that has allowed a grand total of 69 yards and 16.9 fantasy points to tight ends in four games this season.
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin
Fantasy scoop: After playing a situational role during his first four NFL games, Jacory Croskey-Merritt took a big leap forward in Week 5. The seventh-round rookie produced a 14-111-2 rushing line and added 39 yards on two targets. Croskey-Merritt’s 16 touches were a career high and he’s now scored four touchdowns in five games. On the other hand, he played “only” 49% of the snaps (also a career high) and continues to play a small receiving role (no more than two targets in a game).
Croskey-Merritt is clearly still working in a committee to some extent, but he’s playing very well (6.6 YPC on the season) and the boost in usage is enough to vault him into the RB2 discussion in a terrific Week 6 matchup against a Chicago defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points, most rushing yards and highest YPC (6.1) to backs.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
Shadow Report: Quinyon Mitchell has traveled in all five games, including matchups with George Pickens (3.5 fantasy points in the game), Hollywood Brown (8.0), Davante Adams (14.6), Emeka Egbuka (20.1) and Courtland Sutton (17.9). Results have varied, but Mitchell is one of the league’s top young corners and presents a tough challenge for the Giants’ perimeter receivers. Of course, with Nabers and Darius Slayton out, it’s possible Mitchell simply plays his side, rather than traveling with someone such as Jalin Hyatt (Wan’Dale Robinson is generally in the slot). Robinson is the other Giants receiver worth considering for your lineup, especially against a defense that has allowed a 56% catch rate to receivers (second lowest).
Fantasy scoop: Mason Taylor exploded for career-high marks in targets (12), catches (nine), yardage (67) and fantasy points (17.7) on Sunday. The second-round rookie has seen his target number increase each week of the season and he’s now produced 65-plus yards in consecutive games. In fact, he leads the Jets in targets (19) during the span. Taylor’s connection with Justin Fields has allowed consecutive top-12 fantasy outings, but he’s yet to find the end zone and may not do that often in the Jets’ run-heavy scheme. The rookie is best viewed as a good TE2 against a strong Denver defense that has allowed a league-low 53% catch rate to tight ends. No tight end has reached 12 fantasy points in a game against the Broncos this season.
Shadow Report: Sauce Gardner is a strong bet to shadow Sutton in London this week. The Jets’ standout corner has already traveled with DK Metcalf (12.3 fantasy points in the game), Mike Evans (13.3) and George Pickens (13.7). Gardner is one of the best in the business and has clearly limited the statistical ceiling of several standout receivers, but New York has struggled against the pass overall (second-highest EPA allowed), which has allowed secondary receivers such as Ryan Flournoy, Calvin Austin III and Emeka Egbuka to deliver 14-plus fantasy points against them. Expectations for Sutton should be lowered a bit, whereas Denver’s secondary receivers (Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims Jr., Pat Bryant) get a boost.
Shadow Report: Wilson’s Week 6 ranking may seem low, but that’s because he can expect to see Pat Surtain II shadow coverage this week. Perhaps the league’s best corner, Surtain has traveled with Calvin Ridley (6.7 fantasy points in the game), Michael Pittman Jr. (8.0), Quentin Johnston (14.9), Ja’Marr Chase (7.3) and A.J. Brown (9.3) this season. That works out to 9.2 fantasy PPG. Denver’s overall pass defense has been as good as expected, sitting fourth best in EPA against the pass, having allowed just 6.6 yards per target to receivers (second lowest). Wilson should remain in lineups, but his bust risk is higher than usual.
Fantasy scoop: Week 5 gave us our first look at the Arizona backfield sans both James Conner and Trey Benson. Michael Carter was the clear lead back, pacing the RB room in snaps (38), carries (18), targets (five) and routes (19). Emari Demercado (17 snaps, three carries, zero targets, eight routes) and Bam Knight (10 snaps, four carries, one targets, four routes) were the secondary options. Carter (73 yards on 23 touches) wasn’t particularly effective, but he did find the end zone (as did Knight). Carter’s heavy usage is enough to make him a flex option, though he’ll have his hands full this week against a Colts defense that has yet to allow a running back more than 16.5 fantasy points this season.
Shadow Report: Expect Charvarius Ward to shadow Harrison, as he did against Calvin Ridley (3.7 fantasy points in the game) in Week 3 and Davante Adams (15.6) in Week 4. The Colts have been effective against the pass (sixth-lowest EPA allowed), but they’ve also faced substantial WR target volume (seventh-most targets), which has led to them sitting in the top six in WR catches, yards, TDs and fantasy points allowed. Harrison’s tough matchup figures to be offset by added volume in a game in which Arizona is likely to trail. He remains a WR3 option.
