Starting Sunday in Toronto, the No. 2 seed Seattle Mariners and No. 1 seed Toronto Blue Jays will clash with a trip to the World Series on the line. The next day, the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers and top-seeded Milwaukee Brewers will begin their series on the National League side of the bracket.
Seattle outlasted the Detroit Tigers in a thrilling ALDS Game 5 on Friday night, two days after Toronto dispatched the AL East rival New York Yankees to get to the ALCS. Meanwhile, in the NL, Los Angeles rolled past the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee edged the division rival Chicago Cubs for the final NLCS spot.
Note: Matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James’ formula for determining how “hot” or “cold” a team is at any given point; average is 72°.
Jeff Passan: The team that the Dodgers were supposed to be has shown up in October. It’s not just the talent, which itself can be overwhelming. It’s that they are particularly comfortable in the sorts of games that would have others panicking through an expanded zone at the plate or too-fine nibbling on the mound.
Philadelphia’s starting pitching was excellent, and that still wasn’t enough to stop the Dodgers. And considering L.A. has done it without significant contributions from Ohtani or Betts over the first two games**, and with a bullpen that beyond Roki Sasaki and Alex Vesia remains in flux, the prospect of the Dodgers getting better is very real — and very scary.
David Schoenfield: Their ability to eventually get to the starting pitcher. In Game 1, Cristopher Sanchez was cruising through 5⅔ innings, having allowed just four hits. Then with two outs in the sixth, Freddie Freeman worked a walk, Tommy Edman singled and Enrique Hernandez drove both in with a double. The Dodgers then later added three runs against the bullpen.
Jesus Luzardo had been even more dominant in Game 2 with one hit allowed and 17 consecutive batters retired entering the seventh, when Teoscar Hernandez singled and Freeman doubled to chase Luzardo from the game. The bullpen entered and the Dodgers eventually scored four runs in the inning. Going back to last year’s postseason, Freeman seems to be involved in so many of these rallies while both Hernandezes become tougher outs in the postseason.
Schoenfield: There are two factors in play here. The Brewers’ starting pitching isn’t as good, so manager Pat Murphy will be much quicker to his bullpen even if the starter is pitching well. The Brewers’ bullpen is much better and less likely to hemorrhage runs late like the Phillies did. So the “score late” philosophy is probably less likely of an outcome. Which puts pressure on the Dodgers’ offense to put runs on the scoreboard early in the game.
Passan: If Ohtani continues to disappear — he is in line to make two starts in the series and will continue to bat leadoff — the Dodgers have enough talent to overcome it, but their margin of error shrinks significantly.
Poor pitching performances, on the other hand, can lose games, and lack of getting on base by a leadoff hitter hampers the ability of Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández and Freddie Freeman to do damage. The difference between good Ohtani and bad Ohtani is profound enough to dictate the result of the series.
Schoenfield: Emmet Sheehan. Dave Roberts has found a closer in Roki Sasaki, and Alex Vesia is the one lefty he seems to trust, but it seems unlikely the Dodgers can win a World Series with just two relief pitchers.
Tanner Scott, the closer for most of the season, has been buried on the depth chart. Roberts went to Blake Treinen in Game 2, and he nearly blew the game.
Sheehan now looks like the top right-handed setup guy. He’s going to pitch some important innings. The regular-season numbers, mostly as a starter, say he can do the job: a .185 batting average allowed and 89 strikeouts in 73⅓ innings.
Schoenfield: Bullpens can get hot in the playoffs, and it looks like the Milwaukee bullpen is hot. It’s worth noting that the Dodgers had the third-highest OPS in the majors during the regular season against pitches of 97-plus mph, hitting .255/.330/.429. So the Dodgers can do some damage against premium velocity. Of course, 104 is a different beast. Still, it feels like the Dodgers will have to score some runs early in the game to win this series.
Rogers: Jacob Misiorowski. It’s clear he’s going to have an important role no matter how the Brewers elect to use him. If he can control his emotions, as well as his stuff, Misiorowski could be the bridge to the late innings in several potential Brewers wins. Or perhaps they let him start a game. Dodgers hitters are 4-for-17 with eight strikeouts this season against the rookie. More of that — along with fastballs at 103 mph or more — could help Milwaukee through a tough L.A. lineup.
At last! Super-fans of 1977 expansion have been waiting for this LCS matchup since the early days of the Carter administration. The Blue Jays and Mariners came into existence at the same time, but they have never met with stakes like these in play. The M’s beat the Jays in a wild-card round matchup in 2022, but this is different.
The two strongest division champs in the AL are vying to end long World Series droughts. Toronto hasn’t won the title in 31 years, and Seattle has never won it.
The great Willie Horton was among the first players to play for both franchises. Even though he’s best remembered as a Tiger and has a statue outside of Comerica Park, they should still let him throw out the first pitch in Seattle and Toronto. — Doolittle
What’s really exciting is the star power on both teams and that the standouts have been shining in October. Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh and the scorching Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have played huge roles in the teams getting this far.
Jorge Castillo: The relentlessness of their lineup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. starred from start to finish, but Toronto received contributions from seemingly everyone manager John Schneider put in there. Four players not named Guerrero recorded two hits in Game 1. Daulton Varsho had four extra-base hits, and Ernie Clement went 3-for-4 in Game 2. Clement added another four hits in Game 3.
Schoenfield: Have to go with Trey Yesavage’s absolutely dominant performance in Game 2, when he made his fourth career start and held the Yankees hitless for 5⅓ innings while striking out 11. The Yankees had no chance against him. Other than the length of the start — the Blue Jays pulled him with a big lead — it was as dominant a postseason outing as we’ve seen in a long time.
His over-the-top delivery creates an unusual look for batters, and he’s throwing 95-96 mph with a slider and wipeout splitter. Hard to believe there were 19 players selected ahead of him in the draft in 2024.
Schoenfield: It will … if he throws strikes. He did against the Yankees, walking just one batter in his start, but in the minors, he walked 41 batters in 98 innings. The Mariners have a mix of patient hitters (Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena) and hitters who chase (Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez), but like the Yankees, the Mariners also whiff a lot.
Alden Gonzalez: The effectiveness of the starting rotation, which should come as no surprise. George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller — before the fifth inning, at least — all pitched well in the ALDS. The hope is that Bryan Woo, the Mariners’ best starter this season, will return from a pectoral injury for the ALCS, taking this rotation to yet another level.
Doolittle: Seattle’s lineup depth is really impressive, even without a standout designated hitter. It’s eye-popping to see Eugenio Suarez hitting in the six-hole and J.P. Crawford at No. 9. It’s a group that hits for power, steals bases and strikes out at a much less problematic rate than the Mariners lineups we’re used to. Raleigh and Rodriguez make for such a dynamic one-two stack in the batting order. The R&R Boys.
Gonzalez: No team struck out less often than the Blue Jays this season. Only the Yankees and Dodgers finished with a higher OPS. And when the playoffs arrived, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ernie Clement and Daulton Varsho slugged a combined 1.000 in four ALDS games. This offense operates at a different level than the Tigers’ — and could have Bo Bichette back for this next round.
Gilbert and Woo pitched pretty well against the Blue Jays this season (five earned runs in 11 2/3 innings). Castillo and Miller (15 earned runs in 15 innings) did not. But these two teams have not seen each other since May. The Mariners’ rotation is not the same as it was then.
Doolittle: A deep lineup plays against anybody, but there’s one factor that works in Seattle’s favor. With Trey Yesavage emerging for Toronto, the Blue Jays have four key hurlers who can dominate with splitters, the breakout pitch of the 2025 postseason. (Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Seranthony Dominguez and Jeff Hoffman are the four.)
The Mariners were in the middle of the pack in hitting splitters during the season, but they had two hitters who crushed them. And it’s the R&R Boys — Raleigh had 1.159 OPS against splitters and Rodriguez 1.091.
Doolittle: Matt Brash. Well, that’s not fair, as Brash is good, and I picked his name as an avatar for Seattle’s middle relief crew. If the Mariners’ roster has a soft underbelly, it’s the non-closing part of the bullpen. It’s not a bad group, but with a deep, productive lineup and a star closer in Munoz, plus excellent starting pitching, it might well be Brash, Eduard Bazardo, Gabe Speier and Carlos Vargas who determine if the Mariners can finally play in a World Series.
This is the Brewers’ second showdown with the Dodgers in the NLCS, the first a seven-game loss to L.A. in 2018. Since Milwaukee started its run of contending seasons in 2017, only the Dodgers have won more regular-season games in the National League. The Brewers haven’t been able to translate that tap-tap-tapping at the championship door into a World Series crown, and twice their season has been ended by the Dodgers behemoth. L.A. entered the season with all the hype, but the Brewers exited it with a No. 1 seed. Seems easy to say now that it has come to pass, but wasn’t this always going to be how the Brewers got back to the World Series? — Bradford Doolittle