David SchoenfieldOct 14, 2025, 07:00 AM ETCloseCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Why has Shohei Ohtani been struggling? (1:56)Jessica Mendoza breaks down Shohei Ohtani’s recent struggles in the postseason for the Dodgers. (1:56)
The Blue Jays’ ability to put the ball in play makes them the biggest threat to L.A.’s throne
The Mariners’ vibes are enough to power them through October
Blake Snell looks like The Man on the mound this postseason
The Phillies will look vastly different when we see them next
Having a true ace no longer guarantees October success
Aaron Judge finally silenced his October critics — for good
This was the San Diego Padres’ last best shot at a deep postseason run
The state of Ohio had two playoff teams — two more than it’ll have in 2026
What an incredible first two weeks of the 2025 MLB playoffs we’ve had. There was the instant classic 15-inning Game 5 of the American League Division Series between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, sending Seattle to its first American League Championship Series since 2001. We saw the Philadelphia Phillies be eliminated by the Los Angeles Dodgers on a bases-loaded error in the 11th inning. We watched the Toronto Blue Jays stomp past the New York Yankees with a barrage of scoring.
Now, we’re in the early stages of the league championship series and down to the final four teams: one team that is trying to make history with back-to-back titles, two teams trying to win their first title and one team trying to bring back its glory days of the early 1990s.
The Mariners surprised everyone by going into Toronto and winning the first two games. The Dodgers held on to a slim lead to take Game 1 in Milwaukee. Let’s take stock of October so far with an edition of Real or Not, looking at storylines on the teams still alive and those that have been eliminated.
Look. They’re the defending champs. They have a rotation of All-Stars. They have Shohei Ohtani. They seem to have found a closer in Roki Sasaki. They are the favorite to win it all. Just listen to a few statements Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy made Sunday:
“I happen to think that Mookie Betts is one of the most underrated stars — I say ‘underrated,’ that’s kind of crazy, right? But I don’t think Mookie Betts gets the credit.”
“Freddie Freeman is like my favorite person, player in the game. He’s ruined Brewers history many times, but I still love him.”
“My impressions as a pitcher is that [Ohtani is] unbelievable. The game I saw him pitch the other day was, like, uh, a split-finger from the top of the zone all the way to the bottom. Amazing.”
“The other kid is pretty good, the lefty. What’s his name? Shell? [Blake] Snell. I’m joking, of course. I’ve been very disappointed when he’s pitched and I’m in the stadium. He’s really good.”
“And [Tyler] Glasnow is really good. And [Yoshinobu] Yamamoto is really good. The guy at the end — who is the guy at the end throwing 100 with a split? That shouldn’t be fair. We’re going to try to petition the league and see if we can get him suspended for something.”
So, yes, the Dodgers are the favorite. But no team has repeated since the Yankees in 2000. It won’t be easy.
As the first game against the Mariners showed, it seems everyone was overreacting just a bit to the Yankees’ series, when the Blue Jays hit .338. I mean, utility infielder Ernie Clement hit .643! That’s not going to continue all October.
2024 Dodgers: 11th (21.4%) 2023 Texas Rangers: 15th (22.5%) 2022 Houston Astros: second (19.5%) 2021 Atlanta Braves: 16th (22.7%, position players only) 2020 Dodgers: second (20.3%) 2019 Washington Nationals: third (19.8%, position players only) 2018 Boston Red Sox: fifth (19.8%)
But after the Mariners won the first two games in Toronto, a new potential star is brewing thanks to the clutch hitting of Polanco. Check out his big moments so far:
• Walked and scored the tying run in the seventh inning of Game 5 of the ALDS — and delivered the series-winning walk-off hit in the 15th.
• Delivered the go-ahead, two-out single in the sixth inning of Game 1 of the ALCS and then another RBI single in the eighth in Seattle’s 3-1 victory.
And if you want an October MVP sleeper: Roki Sasaki, who’s doing his best Mariano Rivera impersonation (at least until his shaky performance in Game 1 against the Brewers, in which Blake Treinen had to rescue him to get the final out after Sasaki gave up two walks and one run). The Dodgers entered the postseason with no idea who their closer would be — and Sasaki has stepped up. Check out his first four appearances:
Oct. 9 vs. Phillies: Pitched three perfect innings in the Dodgers’ 11-inning, 2-1 win to eliminate Philly.
2023: Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers (5-0, 2.95 ERA) 2022: Framber Valdez, Astros (3-0, 1.44 ERA) 2019: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (5-0, 1.98 ERA) 2017: Justin Verlander, Astros (4-1, 2.21 ERA) 2014: Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants (4-1, 1.03 ERA, one big save)
This might be Snell’s October to remember. Against the Reds in the wild-card round, he gave up two runs in seven innings, taking a shutout into the seventh. Against the Phillies he picked up another win with six scoreless innings in a duel against Cristopher Sanchez. Then, Snell delivered maybe the best starting pitcher performance this decade with his brilliant one-hit, 10-strikeout game over eight innings to beat the Brewers and run his record to 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in the postseason.
Snell made only 11 starts in the regular season, sitting out four months, and L.A. manager Dave Roberts said before Game 1 that the Dodgers probably did slow-play Snell’s return to have him ready for October.
For Snell, he’s determined to keep pitching deeper into games. Before this year, he had made 10 career postseason starts and never completed six innings.
“I think it’s just mindset,” said Snell, who was notoriously unhappy with Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash pulling him in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series after 73 pitches with a 1-0 lead, only to see the Rays lose the game. “As you get older, you learn a lot more, you understand pitching, you understand how important belief is. And you just get better just with age and understanding the game and situations and what pressure really is and how awesome these moments are.”
Tarik Skubal? Gone. Garrett Crochet? Gone. Cristopher Sanchez? Gone. Those three ranked first (Sanchez), third (Skubal) and fourth (Crochet) in Baseball-Reference WAR among pitchers (Paul Skenes, whose Pittsburgh Pirates didn’t make the playoffs, was second).
Look, all three pitched great in October. Skubal gave up four runs in three starts and struck out 36 batters in 20⅔ innings; the Tigers lost two of those games anyway. Crochet won his start in the wild-card series, but the Boston Red Sox lost the other two games to the Yankees. Sanchez gave up three runs over two starts against the Dodgers, but the Phillies lost both after he departed.
Aces are still enormously valuable. But they’re less valuable than they used to be if they’re only throwing six innings and 90-something pitches.
Judge had a terrific postseason, hitting .500/.581/.692 with seven RBIs in seven games. His .500 average was the third highest in a single postseason (minimum 30 plate appearances) and his 253 wRC+ is in the top 15.
Never say never, but the future path to continued success for the Padres is littered with mega-contract-sized potholes. First, in the immediate future, they’ll have to address their starting rotation with Michael King, Dylan Cease and Nestor Cortes heading to free agency. The problem: The farm system is weak and the payroll more bloated than two servings of the “Cardiff crack” nachos at Petco Park.
The Blue Jays did have the lowest strikeout rate in the majors this season at 17.3% and are coming off a dominant offensive division series against the Yankees. The Brewers, however, had the fifth-lowest strikeout rate and actually scored a few more runs than the Blue Jays this season. Keep in mind that Bo Bichette, one of Toronto’s best offensive players in the regular season, will sit out the ALCS because of a knee injury, and even if the Blue Jays advance without him and he can hit in the World Series, he last played a game on Sept. 6.
Consider this nugget of information as well: Ohtani ranked second overall in the majors in OPS in the regular season (1.014); but against pitches of 97 mph or faster, he drops to 21st in OPS (.889). That’s still awesome. Just not quite as awesome. The Brewers have four pitchers who average 97-plus with their fastballs in Jacob Misiorowski, Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby, plus Jared Koenig (averages 96, touches 99), Nick Mears (averages 95.4, touches 98) and Freddy Peralta (averages 94.8, touches 97-98). Two of those are lefty relievers — Ashby and Koenig — and they’re going to face Ohtani a lot in this series. Ohtani knows what he’s going to get. Let ‘er rip (on both sides).
Look, the Mariners strike out a lot. Even in the Game 1 victory against the Blue Jays, they fanned 11 times compared to only four for Toronto. They struck out 20 times in the 15-inning win against the Tigers. Eugenio Suarez is 4-for-29 in the postseason with 12 strikeouts. Rodriguez is 6-for-29 with 13 strikeouts. Maybe the strikeouts will eventually end up as the Mariners’ fatal flaw. So far, their pitching and power has carried them. But keep in mind that they scored only 32 fewer runs than the Blue Jays in the regular season, despite playing at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. If they stay hot at the plate the way they were in Game 2, they can power their way into the World Series.
After the tough four-game loss to the Dodgers, the discussion was how this might be the end of an era for the Phillies. Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suarez — all key members of the core group that has made four consecutive playoff appearances and remained remarkably intact — are all free agents after this season, as is Max Kepler and perhaps Harrison Bader (he has a $10 million mutual option). Six of the regular position players are older than 30. And, quite simply, this group hasn’t gotten it done in the postseason the past three years, especially at the plate.