Mike ClayOct 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on X
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including start/sit, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, start/sit advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
PIT-CIN | LAR-JAC | NO-CHI | MIA-CLE | NE-TEN | LV-KC PHI-MIN | CAR-NYJ | NYG-DEN | IND-LAC | WAS-DAL | GB-ARI | ATL-SF | TB-DET| HOU-SEA
Shadow Report: Upgrade Chicago’s receivers against a New Orleans pass defense that has given up the 10th-most fantasy points to receivers (third most to the perimeter) as well as the fourth-highest EPA against the pass. Rome Odunze, DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus (who inexplicably has more targets than Moore this season) get the boost over Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alontae Taylor and Quincy Riley.
Shadow Report: Rasul Douglas figures to shadow Jerry Jeudy. Having quickly emerged as Miami’s top corner, Douglas shadowed Garrett Wilson in Week 4 (Wilson scored 20.2 fantasy points) and Tetairoa McMillan in Week 5 (10.2). Miami hasn’t faced much pass volume (fourth-fewest WR targets) but has struggled with efficiency (second-highest EPA against the pass), so this is an upgrade for Cleveland’s passing game, including Jeudy.
Fantasy scoop: With Brock Bowers still sidelined, Michael Mayer stepped in and paced the Raiders with seven targets last week. Mayer, who played a career-high 91.2% of the snaps, turned the heavy usage into 50 yards and one TD on five receptions. That worked out to a career-high 16.0 fantasy points. Bowers will remain out this week and Mayer’s Week 6 usage and production are enough to allow streaming consideration against the Chiefs.
Shadow Report: Downgrade the Eagles receivers against a rested Vikings pass defense that has given up the fewest receptions, yards and fantasy points to the position this season. Minnesota, which has given up the lowest EPA against the pass, will match up ex-Eagle Isaiah Rodgers, Byron Murphy Jr. and Jeff Okudah against A.J. Brown and Jahan Dotson on the boundary, with Murphy and Joshua Metellus handling DeVonta Smith in the slot.
Shadow Report: Downgrade the Giants’ passing game against the Broncos’ elite pass defense. Denver has surrendered the fourth-fewest yards, a league-low one TD and the second-fewest fantasy points (fourth fewest to the perimeter) to receivers. Pat Surtain II has shadowed the opposing team’s top receiver in all six games, but he might play a side this week with Wan’Dale Robinson primarily working inside (74% slot).
Shadow Report: There’s a decent chance Paulson Adebo will shadow Sutton this week. New York’s top corner traveled with Terry McLaurin in Week 1 (McLaurin scored 4.7 fantasy points) and A.J. Brown in Week 6 (14.0). The Giants have given up the third-most fantasy points to receivers this season, but a lot of that is volume based (second-most WR targets faced) and they’ve been better lately after a slow start. Sutton can be downgraded slightly.
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren
Shadow Report: We’re upgrading Washington’s receivers against a Dallas defense that has given up the most fantasy points and touchdowns (12) as well as the highest catch rate (74%) and yards per target (10.1) to receivers this season. Six receivers have scored 17-plus fantasy points against Dallas, and that includes Tetairoa McMillan (17.9) last week. McLaurin and Samuel can be upgraded against the defense giving up the highest EPA to passing games this season.
Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Jahmyr Gibbs, Rachaad White, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mike Evans, Sam LaPorta
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
Fantasy scoop: Following a slow start to the season, Chase Brown has had a role reduction in recent weeks. During his first four games, Brown played 68% of the offensive snaps and handled 78% of the designed runs. Over the past two games, Brown played 53% of the snaps and handled 59% of the runs, out-snapping only Samaje Perine 64-56 in the span. Brown sits seventh among backs in targets and receptions, but he hasn’t cleared 10 carries in a game since Week 2, nor has he scored more than 13.1 fantasy points in a single outing this season. Perhaps Joe Flacco will get Brown rolling in time (Browns RBs were terrific as a whole during Flacco’s time in Cleveland), but Brown is no more than an uninspiring flex option this week against a solid Steelers run defense.
Shadow Report: DJ Turner II is a good bet to shadow Metcalf this week. Turner has emerged as the Bengals’ top corner, having traveled with Travis Hunter (Hunter scored 5.2 fantasy points in the game), Justin Jefferson (12.5), Courtland Sutton (19.1), Jameson Williams (1.9) and Romeo Doubs (10.5). Turner has done a decent job, with six of the top seven WR performances against the Bengals having come from players he didn’t shadow. Expectations for Metcalf can be lowered very slightly, whereas Pittsburgh’s secondary targets can be upgraded against a defense that has given up the third-most yards, sixth-most TDs (12) and the sixth-highest EPA against the pass.
Fantasy scoop: One of fantasy’s biggest busts through five weeks of the season, Thomas got back on track with an 8-90-1 receiving line on 10 targets against the Seahawks last Sunday. Thomas’ 23.0 fantasy points were his most since Week 17 of last season and more than double his previous season high (12.0 in Week 5). Thomas’ playing time and target share haven’t changed, but his connection with QB Trevor Lawrence has improved dramatically (28% catch rate in Weeks 1-3 to a 74% catch rate during Weeks 4-6). Thomas might not return to his WR1 production level of 2024, but he’s back in the WR2 mix, and that includes this week despite a tough matchup against a good Rams defense that has given up the fourth-lowest EPA against the pass.
Fantasy scoop: Fantasy’s No. 2-scoring tight end through three weeks, Juwan Johnson has cooled dramatically, sitting 39th in points since Week 4. Johnson totaled 28 targets during the first three games (24% share) but has only nine in three games since (11%), the latter total allowing him 60 yards and zero TDs on seven catches. Johnson has never cleared a 14% target share in a season, so especially with Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau back, he’s unlikely to get enough consistent volume to return TE1 fantasy value.
Fantasy scoop: Judkins posted the first major dud of his career in Week 6, managing 36 yards on 12 touches. It was his worst fantasy showing since he produced 10.1 points in his NFL debut. Judkins was limited by game script (41% snap share and 12 carries) but also a nonexistent passing-game role that’s becoming more concerning by the week. Judkins’ route participation is a lowly 22% on the season and, after getting zero targets Sunday, he has had either zero or one target in three of the past four games. Judkins is running the ball well (4.6 YPC), but his Derrick Henry-like usage in an offense struggling to score touchdowns is going to continue to limit his fantasy output. The good news is that he has an elite Week 7 matchup against a Miami defense that has given up 5.6 yards per carry (second highest) and the most scrimmage yards to RBs this season. Both Rico Dowdle (32.4) and Kimani Vidal (22.8) have produced big fantasy days against Miami over the past two weeks. Judkins is a solid RB2 option this week.
Fantasy scoop: Do we have a new lead back in Tennessee? After what we saw in Week 6, it’s certainly possible. Tyjae Spears out-snapped Tony Pollard 35 to 25, and though Pollard doubled him up in carries (10 to 5), Spears ran more routes (22 to 12) and was targeted more often (5 to 2). Granted, Pollard is not fully to blame for Tennessee’s struggling offense, but even with heavy volume, he hasn’t moved the needle much this season, nor has he been a fantasy factor (under 14 fantasy points in all six games). Spears, meanwhile, produced 50 yards on nine touches in Week 6, which was only his second outing of the season. There’s some uncertainty here following the team’s coaching change from Brian Callahan (fired on Monday) to Mike McCoy, so this is a situation best avoided for now, especially against a Patriots defense that has given up 3.1 yards per carry (second lowest) to RBs. Only one RB (De’Von Achane in Week 2) has cleared 13.1 fantasy points against New England this season.