How another round of top-10 losses shakes up playoff, bowl matchups

Kyle BonaguraCloseKyle BonaguraESPN Staff WriterCovers college football.Joined ESPN in 2014.Attended Washington State University.Follow on XMark SchlabachCloseMark SchlabachESPN Senior WriterSenior college football writer Author of seven books on college football Graduate of the University of GeorgiaFollow on XOct 19, 2025, 12:35 PM ET

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No. 2 Miami, No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 7 Texas Tech and No. 10 LSU all lost this weekend, with No. 4 Texas A&M surviving a close call against Arkansas.

As a result, the postseason picture has been shuffled again, with changes at the top of the College Football Playoff bracket and throughout the bowl schedule.

As with last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.

From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.

Then there were the big boys that went down: Miami and Ole Miss. I have both of them still in the playoff for now, but their losses obviously chipped away at both teams’ margin for error. We’re at a point in the season where a lot of comparisons become circular and it will remain that way for several weeks.

Schlabach: There’s plenty of parity in college football this season, and it has made for some wild Saturdays in the first eight weeks of the schedule. Four more AP top-10 teams fell this past weekend: Miami, Ole Miss, Texas Tech and LSU.

Texas Tech played without injured starting quarterback Behren Morton (knee) and struggled to produce much offense in a 26-22 loss at Arizona State. The Sun Devils’ Raleek Brown scored on a 1-yard touchdown run with 34 seconds remaining to give the Red Raiders their first loss of the season.

I dropped LSU from my bracket after its 31-24 loss at Vanderbilt. It’s been a disappointing start for Tigers coach Brian Kelly, who is going to catch some heat after his program spent millions of dollars in the offseason to upgrade its roster.

Undefeated BYU, which beat rival Utah 24-21 in the Holy War, is in my bracket for the first time. I also considered Vanderbilt, Louisville, Notre Dame and Oklahoma for the last at-large spot.

CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana Schlabach: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Alabama

CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Alabama Schlabach: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Indiana

CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California) 4 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 8 Georgia Tech vs. No. 1 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 9 Miami vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Bonagura: Oregon came out against Rutgers on Saturday with a point to prove and ran up 42 first-half points to get over its disappointing loss to Indiana last week. The Ducks’ hypothetical matchup against Alabama would be an intriguing quarterfinal (the No. 4 vs. No. 5 game is almost always going to look good on paper).

It also will be interesting to see if the committee ends up ranking teams to avoid conference rematches. It’s an interesting topic because teams shouldn’t have their seeding punished to avoid rematches, but as a viewer, I would hope it works out that way.

Schlabach: I had three of the higher-seeded teams in the first-round games advancing to the quarterfinals.

Of course, there couldn’t be a CFP without an Alabama-Georgia matchup. The Crimson Tide keep chugging along, knocking off rival Tennessee 37-20 to win their sixth straight game since falling to Florida State in its opener.

An Ole Miss-Indiana matchup in the Orange Bowl would provide plenty of fireworks. The Hoosiers locked up coach Curt Cignetti for the foreseeable future, and I’m guessing the Rebels would like to do the same with Lane Kiffin.

CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona) 7:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State Schlabach: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Bonagura: I’m going to stick with Indiana vs. Ohio State for the national title until someone else makes the case to unseat one of them.

Schlabach: I think an argument could be made for eight or nine teams to reach the CFP semifinals at this point.

Ohio State has looked the most dominant since its 14-7 win against Texas in its opener. The Buckeyes steamrolled reeling Wisconsin 34-0 on Saturday, limiting the Badgers to nine first downs and 144 yards of offense. With a stingy defense and Julian Sayin playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the FBS, Ohio State is going to be difficult to beat.

Cricket Celebration Bowl Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central Schlabach: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central

LA Bowl SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: California vs. Boise State Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UConn vs. Coastal Carolina Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina

StaffDNA Cure Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 5 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Temple Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama) 8:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Marshall vs. New Mexico Schlabach: Florida International vs. Buffalo

Myrtle Beach Bowl Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Appalachian State Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State

Boca Raton Bowl Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Liberty Schlabach: Temple vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Troy Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Utah State vs. Louisiana Tech Schlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: San Diego State vs. Washington State Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane

GameAbove Sports Bowl Ford Field (Detroit) 1 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Maryland vs. Miami (Ohio) Schlabach: Maryland vs. Central Michigan

Rate Bowl Chase Field (Phoenix) 4:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Kansas vs. Nebraska Schlabach: TCU vs. Minnesota

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Army vs. Central Michigan Schlabach: San Diego State vs. Miami (Ohio)

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York) Noon, ABC Bonagura: Louisville vs. Northwestern Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern

Wasabi Fenway Bowl Fenway Park (Boston) 2:15 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Florida State vs. North Texas Schlabach: NC State vs. Memphis

Pop-Tarts Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 3:30 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Virginia vs. Houston Schlabach: Louisville vs. Cincinnati

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona) 4:30 p.m., CW Network Bonagura: Ohio vs. Hawai’i Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico) 5:45 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UNLV vs. Arizona Schlabach: UNLV vs. Appalachian State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida) 7:30 p.m. ABC Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas Schlabach: Virginia vs. Tennessee

Kinder’s Texas Bowl NRG Stadium (Houston) 9:15 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Auburn Schlabach: Houston vs. Oklahoma

JLab Birmingham Bowl Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Memphis vs. James Madison Schlabach: Florida State vs. UConn

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana) 2 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: UCF vs. Kennesaw State Schlabach: Kansas vs. Louisiana Tech

Music City Bowl Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee) 5:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Oklahoma Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl Alamodome (San Antonio) 9 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. USC Schlabach: Arizona State vs. USC

ReliaQuest Bowl Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) Noon, ESPN Bonagura: Michigan vs. Missouri Schlabach: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas) 2 p.m., CBS Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona State Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) 3 p.m., ABC Bonagura: Illinois vs. Vanderbilt Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas) 3:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Iowa vs. Utah Schlabach: Nebraska vs. California

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas) 1 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Baylor vs. East Carolina Schlabach: Baylor vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee) 4:30 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: TCU vs. Mississippi State Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Auburn

Duke’s Mayo Bowl Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) 8 p.m., ESPN Bonagura: Duke vs. Tennessee Schlabach: Duke vs. Missouri

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