Pick-six! Zabien Brown takes it 99 yards to the house for Alabama (1:05)Zabien Brown intercepts Joey Aguilar in the red zone and returns it 99 yards for an Alabama touchdown. (1:05)
On Sunday, the 13 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee will do something they’ve never done before — they’re going to meet for two days at the Gaylord Texan Resort in Grapevine, Texas, for what they’re calling a “level set” meeting. It’s an early opportunity for the entire group to get together and discuss what they’ve seen so far without releasing a ranking.
Why they could be lower: There would be some committee members who consider Indiana for the top spot, as the undefeated Hoosiers’ road win at Oregon remains the best in the country. IU is on par with Ohio State statistically, ranking No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric and No. 3 in Game Control. Ohio State’s nonconference win against Texas, though, would loom large in the room as a separating factor.
Need to know: Ohio State and Indiana are on track to face each other in the Big Ten title game. If that comes to fruition and they are both undefeated, the loser of the game can still earn a top-four seed and a first-round bye because those spots are no longer reserved for conference champions. ESPN Analytics gives Ohio State at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games and the best chance in the league to reach the Big Ten championship.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be higher: Indiana’s win against Oregon is still better than Ohio State’s best win, and the Hoosiers entered Week 8 ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric. That means the average top 25 opponent would have just an 11% chance to achieve the same 7-0 record against the same opponents. The committee also considers common opponents, and while Ohio State beat Illinois with ease 34-16, Indiana beat the Illini in historic fashion 63-10.
Need to know: Indiana has the second-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game behind Ohio State, according to ESPN Analytics. The Hoosiers have at least a 70% chance to win each of their remaining games.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Penn State. It’s certainly not the obstacle it appeared to be a month ago, but it’s still the most difficult road trip remaining and a tougher environment to win in than Maryland.
Why they could be here: With the win against Tennessee, Alabama has beaten four straight ranked opponents, including Georgia and Missouri on the road. This has been one of the most grueling stretches any team in the country has played, and Alabama hasn’t just won — it’s gotten better each week. Since the inception of the CFP, the committee has never shied away from ranking a one-loss team ahead of an undefeated team if it has played better against better competition, and the Tide has done that.
Need to know: Alabama entered Week 8 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Schedule metric, well above No. 21-ranked Texas A&M.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. Alabama won’t face a quarterback better than John Mateer in the second half of the season. Rival Auburn continues to struggle, and LSU still seems incapable of putting together a complete performance.
Why they could be higher: If the committee keeps the Aggies ahead of Bama, it will be because of the Tide’s season-opening loss to FSU and Texas A&M’s win at Notre Dame.
Need to know: Texas A&M and Alabama don’t play each other during the regular season but could meet in the SEC title game — if the Aggies survive a more difficult back half of the season. Texas A&M still has three tough road games against LSU, Missouri and Texas.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. A Friday night road trip against a ranked rival is a tricky way to end the season.
Why they could be lower: Miami’s loss to Louisville wasn’t a bad loss, but it was a poor performance. There could still be some committee members who believe Miami’s overall résumé is better than Georgia’s with nonconference wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida. Georgia’s nonconference triumphs are over Marshall and Austin Peay. And prior to the Louisville game, Miami was playing better defense more consistently than the Bulldogs.
Need to know: With Georgia Tech’s win at Duke on Saturday, Georgia’s in-state rival is on track to reach the ACC championship game. If Georgia can capture the regular-season finale between the two schools, it could wind up being one of its best wins in the back half of the season.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns will likely be the last ranked SEC opponent the Bulldogs face.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. This will be the first time Miami has left its state. The Mustangs beat Clemson 35-24 on Saturday, but the Tigers were without starting quarterback Cade Klubnik.
Need to know: The Rebels are under some pressure to beat Oklahoma in Week 9 because a 10-2 record might not be good enough for an at-large bid. Ole Miss would have lost two of its top three chances to impress the committee against ranked opponents — the one they got was against LSU.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at Oklahoma. The Sooners rebounded from their loss to Texas with a win on Saturday at South Carolina. It will be the second straight road trip for Ole Miss.
Why they could be higher: Oregon has simply played better more consistently than Ole Miss, and the Ducks entered Week 8 ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s Game Control metric.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC. Road trips to Iowa and Washington aren’t gimmes — and Minnesota should be bowl bound — but the Trojans will likely be the last ranked opponent the Ducks face.
Why they could be lower: Georgia Tech is undefeated and that would be the biggest reason the committee would flip the two. Oklahoma’s defense has been significantly better against a tougher schedule.
Need to know: The Sooners end the season with five straight ranked opponents, including back-to-back November trips to Tennessee and Alabama.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners will have a much-needed bye week before traveling to Alabama.
Why they could be lower: The Jackets have found ways to win, but they haven’t exactly asserted themselves against unranked opponents. Their only double-digit win came against the 2-5 Hokies. Georgia Tech needed overtime to beat Wake Forest, 30-29, and the committee would know that the ACC conceded an officiating mistake in that game that would have given the Demon Deacons a critical first down. The missed call allowed Georgia Tech to extend its drive and win in overtime.
Need to know: Georgia Tech might not have any wins against CFP Top 25 teams on Selection Day, but it wouldn’t matter if the Jackets locked up a spot as the ACC champion. It would be a part of the committee’s deliberations, though, if Georgia Tech finished as a two-loss ACC runner-up, with those losses coming to the ACC winner and rival Georgia.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia. The Yellow Jackets took their rival to eight overtimes last year before losing, 44-42, in Athens.
Why they could be here: The Cougars beat their toughest opponent to-date, a ranked Utah team that now has two losses. BYU is the only undefeated team remaining in the Big 12, and continues to find ways to win. They’ve also got three road wins (East Carolina, Colorado and Arizona), and benefited from Texas Tech losing to ASU.
Why they could be lower: Wins against FCS Portland State, 2-4 Stanford, 3-4 Colorado and 2-5 West Virginia don’t stack up with the other contenders. BYU also needed double overtime to win at unranked, three-loss Arizona on Oct. 11.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. Even though the Red Raiders lost on Saturday, they’re still the most talented team left on the Cougars’ schedule.
Why they could be lower: Two losses. Period. And it doesn’t help that the first was to Miami, which lost to Louisville.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Notre Dame would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — South Florida as the projected American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12. As an independent, Notre Dame can’t lock up a spot in the playoff as one of the five conference champions, so its only path is through an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. Notre Dame is projected to win each of its remaining games, but this one is on the road against a team that found a way to win at Florida State.
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
Why they could be here: Texas A&M is still undefeated — the only one left in the SEC — but it hasn’t racked up the statement wins like Alabama. And Saturday’s 45-42 victory against a 2-5 Arkansas team didn’t come easily. The Aggies allowed 527 total yards, including 268 on the ground. Still, the Aggies earned their second road triumph of the season, a double-digit victory against a pesky Arkansas team playing inspired football under interim coach Bobby Petrino. Texas A&M entered Week 8 No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, and the 41-40 win at Notre Dame is a big reason why. It’s the Aggies’ lone win against a ranked opponent.
Why they could be here: The loss to Louisville will be less of a problem in the committee meeting room than how Miami lost. The four turnovers from Carson Beck — plus converting just five of 12 third downs — are the kinds of stats former coaches and players in the room will bring up. There will also be a respect, though, for one-loss Louisville, which would probably be a CFP Top 25 team. Miami’s overall schedule will still carry a lot of weight with the committee, as wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida are a significantly tougher nonconference lineup than most other contenders.