The 2025 World Series is set, and it will be a matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers.
After the defending champion Dodgers swept the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series, the Blue Jays outlasted the Seattle Mariners in a thrilling American League series.
What carried Toronto and Los Angeles this far — and will it continue to work in the Fall Classic? Which stars will shine brightest? And who else must step up? Our MLB experts are here with your first look at this year’s World Series showdown.
Note: Matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James’ formula for determining how “hot” or “cold” a team is at any given point; average is 72°.
For the first time in more than three decades, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in the World Series where they will find the well-rested, defending champion Dodgers waiting for them. It’s the third Fall Classic for the Toronto franchise but the first since the Jays won back-to-back titles in 1992 and ’93.
The Expos never won a pennant, so the two Toronto pennants account for all World Series appearances by Canada-based clubs. Game 1 at the Rogers Centre will mark the seventh World Series game played outside of the U.S. border. And, spoiler alert, Canada will be rocking.
Before the season, my simulations gave this matchup a 2.28% chance of happening, ranking 13th of 165 matchups that popped up in at least one sim. But because the Jays weren’t forecast as a favorite, and the AL figured to be tightly packed (as turned out to be the case), there were eight other teams that faced the Dodgers more often in the 10,000 simulated seasons, including the Mariners, whom the Jays just vanquished in the ALDS.
It’s a novel Fall Classic matchup featuring teams with old-school traits. For the Dodgers, it has been a joyous leaning on a dominant starting rotation. For Toronto, it’s a throwback offense that features standout batting or, more precisely, all the traits that lead to what passes for a high average in 2025 baseball. All of this makes this first Dodgers-Jays showdown a fascinating clash of teams with contrasting styles of play. The games begin in Toronto on Friday. — Doolittle
What is the No. 1 factor that has carried the Blue Jays to the World Series for the first time in three decades?
David Schoenfield: Yes, Jorge is correct: If Guerrero has a big World Series, it will go down as one of the greatest postseason performances of all time. Let’s also give a shoutout to rookie pitcher Trey Yesavage – and to the Blue Jays for having the belief in him to make him their No. 2 starter behind Kevin Gausman at the start of the postseason, even though Yesavage had made just three starts in the regular season.
He pitched 5⅓ hitless innings with 11 strikeouts against the Yankees in the ALDS, pure domination. He got three huge double plays to beat the Mariners in ALCS Game 6. Obviously, the stuff speaks for itself, but the Jays asked a lot from a young pitcher, and he has delivered.
Castillo: Yes, but in limited doses because the Dodgers will probably pitch around Guerrero whenever possible. Nothing suggests Guerrero will slow down when given pitches to hit.
The Dodgers’ starting rotation has been utterly dominant, but Guerrero has hit elite pitching this month. He has hit all kinds of pitching. The pressure will be on the guys hitting behind him — Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement — to make the Dodgers pay when they refuse to engage Guerrero.
Castillo: See above. More of the same, unless the Dodgers refuse to pitch to him. We saw the Yankees and Mariners occasionally dabble with not attacking Guerrero, but they did not avoid him, for the most part. The series could hinge on how that dynamic plays out.
Schoenfield: He’s so locked in that you would expect it to continue. On the other hand, this Dodgers rotation has much better swing-and-miss stuff than Seattle’s rotation, which was missing Bryan Woo and featured a subpar Logan Gilbert.
Castillo: The bullpen is the Blue Jays’ weakest link, which makes Louis Varland significant in this series. Varland is John Schneider’s most trusted reliever. The right-hander has pitched in 10 of the Blue Jays’ 11 playoff games, often in the biggest spots in the middle innings. He has recorded more than three outs three times.
The Blue Jays could carry up to four left-handed relievers in their bullpen — Mason Fluharty, Brendon Little, Eric Lauer and Justin Bruihl — to counter Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, but those lefties have struggled in the postseason.
Varland, whose splits during the regular season weren’t all that drastic (a .662 OPS against vs. RHH and a .716 .OPS against vs. LHH) will surely be in a huge spot against one of the Dodgers’ left-handed sluggers. Jeff Hoffman might be Toronto’s closer, but Varland, acquired at the trade deadline from the Twins, is the team’s best reliever, and the Blue Jays need him to secure huge outs.
Springer had a terrific regular season as well with no obvious holes in his game. He ranked 24th in the majors with an .885 OPS against pitches of 96-plus mph and 20th in the majors against offspeed pitches (sliders, curves, splitters, changeups). His at-bats leading off games will be key to getting the Blue Jays going.
Now, it’s the Mariners’ turn. Their offense has had moments. They’re capable. But they haven’t seen a rotation like the Dodgers’ yet.
Gonzalez: The long layoff could be a boon for Sasaki, who had been in uncharted territory from a workload standpoint. Having essentially six days off means he will face few, if any, restrictions in the World Series. And if his arm is fresh and his command is right, opposing hitters usually don’t have much of a chance against his fastball-splitter combination.
One potential advantage for the Blue Jays, though, is that the book is essentially out on Sasaki by now, and they’ll have a much better feel for how to attack him than the Reds and Phillies, who both had little to work with because Sasaki’s stuff was so much better than what he displayed earlier this season. If the Blue Jays can get to him, the Dodgers will be left with few other options late in games.
Dodgers pitchers average 96.8 mph on their fastballs. Toronto batters are hitting .292 off 97-mph-plus heaters, and they’ve struck out in just six of the 50 plate appearances that ended with those pitches. Expect even more two-strike spin from the team that averages just 35% fastballs on potential putaway pitches.
All of the Dodgers’ starters have at least four pitches — Yamamoto throws six and Ohtani seven — a buffet unfortunate to hitters. If Toronto can’t get to them, we’re looking at one of the greatest postseasons ever, like the 1983 Orioles but sustained over an even longer stretch.
It has been a mixed postseason for Shohei Ohtani. What should we expect from him in the World Series?
Gonzalez: When Ohtani gets going offensively — and if his performance in the pennant clincher wasn’t evidence of him getting back on track, I don’t know what is — he tends to carry it for a while. His career numbers against Blue Jays starters Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer are not great (6-for-31 with 14 strikeouts and zero walks), and a long layoff normally is not a good for hitters.
Passan: It’s fair to say that he won’t match Game 4 of the NLCS, one of the greatest individual performances in baseball history. But Ohtani will get at least one start in the World Series, allowing him to at least recreate some portion of his masterpiece.
And at this point, anyone who doubts Ohtani’s ability to do anything hasn’t been paying attention. The reason there was such surprise at his struggles is because they’re such an unfamiliar sight. And the unfamiliarity comes from the rarity. If any of what he found at the plate in Game 4 carries over, expect fireworks.
Gonzalez: Starting pitching will continue to lead the way for the Dodgers, who combined to slash just .223/.313/.364 at the plate over the past two rounds. They know they have to do better if they’re going to repeat as champions. And Freddie Freeman, in particular, will be key.
The Blue Jays’ rotation is all right-handed, which means Freeman will hit in the No. 3 spot of the Dodgers’ lineup, behind Ohtani and Mookie Betts. When the Dodgers defeated the New York Yankees in last year’s World Series, it was Freeman who won MVP. But he’s slashing just .231/.333/.410 in these playoffs, and though he hit better against the Brewers, the Dodgers would love to see more power out of him on the biggest stage. He should be presented with plenty of RBI opportunities.
He has been the personification of whom the Dodgers hoped they were getting when they signed him last winter to a five-year, $182.5 million contract. If he replicates his performances over the first three rounds of the postseason, the Dodgers won’t need much offensive support to back him up, and Snell will get to celebrate his first championship.
Schoenfield: It will be a little more difficult. Though the Dodgers, like the Mariners, strike out a lot, they also chase out of the zone far less often than Seattle (third-lowest chase rate in the regular season compared with 17th for the Mariners). The scouting reports on Yesavage were thin at the start of the playoffs, but now have three additional games to consider his tendencies. He was a little lucky to escape those two bases-loaded jams against the Mariners and given that his control can waver — he had three walks in each of his two ALCS starts — he will have to be a little more crisp against the Dodgers.
Alden Gonzalez: It is their four starting pitchers, as Jeff noted. But the evolution of a fifth one, Roki Sasaki, has been just as critical. The Dodgers were searching for answers late in games when October arrived, and had it not been for Sasaki recapturing the velocity on his fastball and quickly adapting to a high-leverage bullpen role, they likely would not be here. The Dodgers have won nine of their 10 postseason games, and Sasaki has recorded the final out in five of them. In another, the Game 4 clincher in the NLDS, he pitched three perfect innings.