Seth WalderOct 21, 2025, 06:25 AM ETCloseSeth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
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I’m a big believer in evaluating decision-making instantaneously — but looking back at past choices can also be a valuable exercise.
At the 2024 NFL trade deadline, I graded the deals that were made based on expectations for the players involved, cap implications and how the moves affected the outlooks of the trading teams. A year later, we have a lot more information. So let’s update our grades based on all we’ve learned. It’s a useful calibration exercise for future grades, too.
When I’m doing grades at the time of a deal, I focus on process and the range of outcomes for each team. These grades will be focused on results and consider how players have performed since the trade (and expectations for them going forward if they’re still with the team that traded for them).
So before the 2025 trade deadline hits on Nov. 4, let’s take one more look at eight of the biggest 2024 trades — what we thought then and what we know now.
New York Jets got: WR Davante Adams Las Vegas Raiders got: 2025 conditional third-round pick Trade date: Oct. 15
At the time of the trade, the Jets were 2-4 and had fired head coach Robert Saleh. The hope was that a coaching change and the addition of Adams, who already had chemistry with Aaron Rodgers from their eight seasons together in Green Bay, would salvage a season that started with Super Bowl aspirations.
A year later the Jets have little to show in exchange for that third-round pick — they managed just three wins after the deal — but I don’t think that’s a totally fair way to evaluate the trade. Adams’ numbers on the Jets were solid — 2.25 yards per route run, 77.6 yards per game and a 30% target rate — and he finished with an above-average 68 open score for the season, via ESPN’s receiver scores. Those figures are better than I would have expected at the time of the deal.
While the addition of Adams reduced Garrett Wilson’s target rate (it dropped from 27% without Adams on the field to 22%), Wilson’s yards per route run remained an identical 1.76 regardless of whether Adams was on the field.
Ultimately, the Jets’ 2024 failures were for reasons beyond Adams. As disappointing as the Jets’ season turned out, the trade was logical at the time and Adams performed reasonably well. Teams have gotten far less for a third-round pick in the trade market.
Adams was unlikely to remain on the contract he had at the time of the trade — it included $35.6 million in nonguaranteed money this season — so there was always the possibility of this trade being a short-term acquisition. That became a near-certainty once the Jets parted with Rodgers.
As for the Raiders, I said in the original grade that they deserved an F for the entire Adams saga — they held on to him for far too long and cost themselves dearly by doing so — but a B- for their decision-making on the day of the trade. I was critical of them not eating some of Adams’ salary in exchange for more draft compensation considering Las Vegas’ cap situation, and that critique is still valid.
But if the ultimate question is whether the Raiders should have made this trade, the answer was yes at the time and yes now. For that they earn a B.
Seattle Seahawks got: LB Ernest Jones IV Tennessee Titans got: LB Jerome Baker, 2025 fourth-round pick Trade date: Oct. 23
This trade was a surprise, not only because it was the second time Jones was traded in 2024 but because of the nature of it — two contract-year, off-ball linebackers being dealt for each other along with a fourth-round pick.
Seattle’s aggression was understandable: Head coach Mike Macdonald had success as a defensive coordinator in Baltimore with strong linebacker play, and Jones was an upgrade over Baker. I thought Jones, who had been used very effectively by the Rams as a blitzer, would thrive in that role for Macdonald, though that has been less of a focus than I imagined.
In coverage, Jones has allowed 0.9 yards per coverage snap — average for a linebacker — since joining the Seahawks, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and has recorded 1.0 sacks. He was a pending unrestricted free agent at the time of the deal, but the Seahawks re-signed him to a three-year, $28.5 million deal that includes only $10 million fully guaranteed, per OverTheCap.com. That looks like a bargain compared to other linebacker contracts handed out last offseason.
My issue from Seattle’s perspective remains the same as it was a year ago — a fourth-round pick and Baker was a steep price. While re-signing Jones took out the short-term aspect of the deal, the Seahawks could have feasibly signed him as a free agent in the offseason and kept the draft pick (though his contract might have been more expensive if they went that route). But looking at pure results, it’s hard to argue with the Seattle’s uptick in run-stopping since bringing on Jones.
Arizona Cardinals got: Edge Baron Browning Denver Broncos got: 2025 sixth-round pick Trade date: Nov. 4
Browning became a little superfluous to the Broncos in 2024, with Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto occupying the starting edge spots and then-rookie Jonah Elliss earning more playing time. So Denver decided to deal Browning ahead of his contract expiring at the end of the season.
He was an upgrade for the Cardinals, especially after they lost Dennis Gardeck for the rest of the season because of a torn ACL. At the time of the deal, the Cardinals were 5-4 and, while not true contenders, had a 50% chance to reach the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. Acquiring a player on a cheap expiring contract such as Browning was perfectly reasonable.
And he performed a little better than expected. Browning was on the field 47% of the time for the Cardinals last season — more often in passing situations — and recorded an impressive 23% pass rush win rate at edge in that span (a very strong number), albeit with only 2.0 sacks and an average 9% pressure rate. But Browning was a helpful presence on the Cardinals, even though they finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs.
The Cardinals re-signed Browning in the offseason to a reasonable two-year, $15 million deal. He’s playing a shade more this season and has a 17% pass rush win rate and 11% pressure rate — both slightly above average — along with two sacks. Finding a capable edge rusher on an affordable contract is not easy to do, so this was a good move for the Cardinals.
Browning would have served as depth on the Broncos last season. But considering they made the playoffs, in retrospect I would have preferred to hang on to him as a rotational player and insurance policy. At the time of the deal I noted that the Broncos had money to spend in the 2025 offseason, so a compensatory pick was no guarantee, but OverTheCap currently projects they will get two seventh-round pick compensatory picks next year.
Buffalo Bills got: WR Amari Cooper, 2025 sixth-round pick Cleveland Browns got: 2025 third-round pick, 2026 seventh-round pick Trade date: Oct. 15
The Bills were a Super Bowl hopeful with a clear need at receiver when they traded for Cooper. While Buffalo had a reliable slot receiver in Khalil Shakir, it was rolling with then-rookie Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins and sometimes Curtis Samuel on the outside — an unideal combination.
While I wasn’t overly enthralled with Cooper, I viewed the trade as a clear win for the Bills because the need was both so apparent and crucial. And even though Cooper had managed only 1.2 yards per route run in 2024, one could partially blame that on struggling Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson. After all, Cooper was also only a year removed from a 72-catch, 1,250-yard season.
Considering how little he produced with eventual MVP Josh Allen as his quarterback and the fact that he retired days before the 2025 season (after briefly signing with the Raiders), in retrospect it seems that Cooper’s early 2024 numbers were simply an indication of a quick decline of a then-30-year-old receiver. Had the Bills realized that, they would never have given up a third-round pick. It was worth a swing, but the results weren’t there.
Davante Adams would have been a much better option knowing what we know now, but keep in mind that the Bills would have had to give up more draft capital than the Jets did because Buffalo would have probably required the Raiders to eat most of Adams’ remaining money.
For Cleveland, this deal looks better now than it did at the time. That’s not only because of Cooper’s fall-off, but also because he didn’t sign with Las Vegas until August, so he would not have netted a compensatory selection. That’s also a ding for Buffalo, which wasn’t able to get a compensatory pick to partially offset the draft capital it surrendered in the trade.
Baltimore Ravens got: WR Diontae Johnson, 2025 sixth-round pick Carolina Panthers got: 2025 fifth-round pick Trade date: Oct. 29
I didn’t understand this deal when it was made. Johnson was decent for Carolina (357 receiving yards in seven games), had previously demonstrated a high-end ability to get open and looked like a valuable addition to the Ravens’ receiver room. And the cost to acquire him. a fifth- and sixth-round pick swap, was nothing compared to Johnson’s talent.
What I didn’t know at the time was that Johnson was in the midst of flaming himself out of the league. After playing 39 snaps and having one reception for the Ravens, the team suspended him for a December game after he refused to enter the team’s contest against the Eagles. Later that month, the Ravens waived him.