Mike ClayOct 23, 2025, 07:49 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on X
Clay: Bo Nix is a lineup lock for Week 8 (1:01)Mike Clay breaks down Bo Nix’s fantasy season and explains why he’s a lineup lock against the Cowboys. (1:01)
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
MIN-LAC | MIA-ATL | CHI-BAL | BUF-CAR | NYJ-CIN | SF-HOU | CLE-NE NYG-PHI | TB-NO | DAL-DEN | TEN-IND | GB-PIT | WAS-KC
Lineup locks: Jordan Mason, Justin Jefferson, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey, Jordan Addison
Fantasy scoop: This past Sunday, Oronde Gadsden II exploded for seven catches, 164 yards and one TD on a career-high nine targets. The fifth-round rookie didn’t play in Weeks 1-2 but has seen his snap share increase in each of the past five weeks and now suddenly finds himself on the fantasy radar. Gadsden has reached seven targets in three of his five NFL games and has eight-plus targets, seven catches and 68-plus yards in two consecutive outings.
Shadow Report: We’re downgrading Waddle and the Miami receivers against a man-heavy Atlanta defense that has been tough on receivers. Atlanta has surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers, including the fifth fewest to the perimeter and fewest to the slot. The Falcons have surrendered the second-fewest yards to the position, and only two wideouts have reached 12 fantasy points against them. Waddle should remain in lineups, but Miami’s secondary receivers should be avoided.
This week, Stevenson draws a Cleveland defense that has allowed the fewest yards and fantasy points to running backs. In fact, only one RB has even cleared 13.1 points against the Browns and that was a 17.7-point effort by Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 4. Stevenson is on the RB2 radar with six teams on a bye, but there’s big bust risk here.
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Cam Skattebo, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Wan’Dale Robinson, Dallas Goedert
Fantasy scoop: After accounting for exactly two touchdowns in each of his first three NFL starts, Jaxson Dart produced four (three passing, one rushing) in Denver on Sunday. Dart also had a career-high 283 passing yards, though his 11 rushing yards were a far cry from the 50-plus he had produced in his first three games. Nonetheless, Dart is playing fairly well and has delivered three top-10 fantasy outings in four tries, including top-three showings each of the past two weeks.
Dart isn’t yet a weekly QB1, but he’s a streaming option during bye weeks. Consider him a fringe starter this week against an Eagles defense that has allowed only seven passing TDs (fifth fewest) this season. Dart put up 23.6 points against the Eagles two weeks ago, with most of that coming on the ground (a 13-58-1 rushing line).
Fantasy scoop: Chuba Hubbard returned from injury on Sunday and Carolina’s plan of attack was essentially to rotate drives between him and the red-hot Rico Dowdle. When all was said and done, Hubbard (who started) totaled 14 carries and three targets on 38 snaps (17 routes), compared to 17 carries and two targets on 32 snaps (nine routes) for Dowdle. Dowdle was more effective, totaling 96 yards on 18 touches, compared to 55 yards on 16 touches for Hubbard.
Game script may not be as kind to the running back duo against Allen & Co. this week, but Buffalo has struggled against RBs, having allowed a league-high 5.4 yards per carry and eight TDs (fourth most) to the position. Dowdle is the preferred RB2 play, but Hubbard is also on the flex radar.
Monangai’s role has increased in recent weeks, but Swift remains Chicago’s lead back and the much better fantasy option. Swift is on the RB1 radar against a Baltimore defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points and TDs (nine) to RBs, whereas Monangai belongs on benches.
This week, Jennings should be viewed as a flex option against a Houston defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points and only three TDs to receivers. Only two WRs (Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba) have reached 14 fantasy points against Houston this season.
Shadow Report: We’re upgrading Tampa Bay’s wide receivers against the Saints cornerback room. The Saints are midpack in fantasy points allowed to the position, but that’s primarily due to low volume faced. New Orleans has allowed the eighth-highest EPA against the pass and has struggled against the perimeter (eighth-most points allowed). The likes of Egbuka, Tez Johnson and Sterling Shepard can be upgraded against Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alontae Taylor and Quincy Riley.
Lineup locks: Bo Nix, Javonte Williams, J.K. Dobbins, CeeDee Lamb, Courtland Sutton, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson
Fantasy scoop: After a bit of a slow start to the season (only one weekly finish better than 12th), Nix exploded for a position-high 40 points during Sunday’s comeback win against the Giants. Nix threw for 279 yards (his second-highest total of the season) and produced four TDs (two passing, two rushing), all in the fourth quarter. The second-year QB now ranks top 12 among QBs in passing attempts, completions, yards and TDs, as well as in rushing attempts, yards and TDs.
Nix’s efficiency could be better (6.1 YPA), but he’s set up with a terrific Week 8 matchup against a Dallas defense that sits in the top three in passing yards and TDs, rushing yards and TDs and fantasy points allowed to QBs. All seven QBs that have faced Dallas have produced 17.7-plus fantasy points — and that includes Jayden Daniels, who left injured in Week 7. Nix is a lineup lock.
Shadow Report: This game will feature one of the most intriguing WR vs. CB showdowns of the season: Pat Surtain II shadowing Lamb. Perhaps the league’s best corner, Surtain has traveled with Calvin Ridley (6.7 fantasy points in the game), Michael Pittman Jr. (8.0), Quentin Johnston (14.9), Ja’Marr Chase (7.3), A.J. Brown (9.3) and Garrett Wilson (4.3) this season. That works out to 8.4 fantasy PPG.
Denver’s overall pass defense has been as good as expected, sitting fourth best in EPA against the pass and having allowed league lows in yards per target (6.1), TDs (one) and fantasy points to WRs. In fact, Denver has yet to allow any receiver to reach 20 fantasy points in a game this season.
Expectations for Lamb should be decreased this week, but he’ll get some slot run (Surtain won’t cover him on those plays) and remains a must start in all formats. Pickens is in a better spot against Riley Moss, though this is a tough matchup across the board for the Dallas pass offense.
Fantasy scoop: Romeo Doubs has reeled off three consecutive top-30 fantasy outings thanks, in a big part, to a sizable boost in targets. After reaching eight targets in just nine of his first 49 NFL games, Doubs has now hit the mark in three straight. The heavy usage allowed a 6-58-3 receiving line in Week 4 (29.8 fantasy points) but less inspiring (albeit solid) 5-55-0 and 6-72-0 showings over the past two weeks.
Fantasy scoop: Worthy is in a bit of a slump since producing 121 yards in his return from injury in Week 4. In three games since that point, he’s totaled only 125 yards and one TD, failing to clear 11.1 points in any of the three outings. The 2024 first-round pick didn’t see much of a change in playing time with Rice back in the fold on Sunday, but his target share dipped to 12% — the lowest it has been in a full game since Week 9 of last season.
Three duds in a row is concerning, but it’s likely that Worthy will settle in at No. 2 in line for targets in the league’s pass-heaviest offense (not to mention one that’s scored four TDs in four straight games). Worthy should remain in lineups this week against a Washington defense that sits in the top 10 in yards, TDs and fantasy points allowed to receivers.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
Shadow Report: Rasul Douglas is a candidate to shadow London this week. Miami’s top corner traveled with Garrett Wilson in Week 4 (Wilson scored 20.2 points in the game) and Tetairoa McMillan in Week 5 (10.2) but didn’t travel full-time against the Chargers or Browns the past two weeks — although he did spend some time following Jerry Jeudy early on last week. Miami hasn’t allowed much to opposing receivers this season, though that’s a product of game script (second-fewest WR targets and lowest WR yardage allowed), not good efficiency (highest pass EPA allowed). London may not see a big target number if Atlanta leads throughout, but he has the matchup edge and remains a solid WR1.