Who will win the MLS cup? (2:06)The ‘Futbol Americas’ crew debate who’s the leading contenders to win the MLS cup. (2:06)
The 2025 MLS Cup playoffs kicked off on Wednesday with the Wild Card round, which saw the ninth seeds from both the East and West get knocked out, leaving the Chicago Fire and Portland Timbers to move on. Their reward? Dates with two of three best teams of the regular season, the Philadelphia Union and San Diego FC, respectively, in Round 1.
This phase of the postseason moves quickly, with the dust on Wednesday’s Wild Card games having barely settled before Inter Miami and Nashville SC get Round 1 underway on Friday night.
So how will the best-of-three series among the 16 remaining MLS clubs play out? Lizzy Becherano and Jon Arnold dive into the matchups and break down Round 1.
Messi may have missed Tuesday’s training session leading up to the game on Friday, but head coach Javier Mascherano confirmed the captain is ready to play 90 minutes if needed, or more.
X-factor: Beyond Messi, it will be interesting to see how Mascherano incorporates new signing Mateo Silvetti into the fold. He returns to the squad after reaching the final of the U20 World Cup with Argentina, where he scored three goals throughout the competition.
Inter Miami have continuously struggled throughout the year with a lack of depth, struggling to find that bench player who can enter the game and make a difference. Silvetti should now be considered that back-pocket tool for Mascherano. He won’t necessarily start given the lack of recent training with the team and international absences, but he can absolutely come in and score a goal to drive a victory.
Tactical wrinkle: Inter Miami may have won the final regular season game against Nashville 5-2, but the Herons struggled mightily in the first half. Nashville found a way to exploit Miami’s backline, often attacking through the left wing to reach the final third, and on two occasions score. It wasn’t until Mascherano made crucial substitutions to the defense and midfield, with Yannick Bright and Ian Fray coming into the game, that Inter began to function properly.
It’s no secret that Miami suffers when defending: conceding 55 goals in the regular season stands as the second-most allowed among playoff teams. Should Nashville find a way to expose Miami’s defensive weaknesses again, the Tennessee team can win the series. — Becherano
Inter Miami advance in this series, despite often being inconsistent, having demonstrated on Decision Day that they can outperform their Round 1 opponent. As opposed to last year, Miami now boasts a healthy roster with most players wanting to give their all in the swan songs of Alba and Busquets. — Becherano
It may not be as emphatic as the Decision Day win, but I’m expecting Messi & Co. to make quick work of Nashville as they inch closer to the storybook ending for Busquets and Alba. — Arnold
Last year, Miami wasn’t so much struck by lightning in the postseason as it was a case of intentionally touching a live wire. It seems too much to expect that to happen again, even with the team’s defensive frailties. Nashville has the impressive, two-pronged attack of Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge, but the Herons are adept at simply outscoring teams. I expect that to happen here. — Jeff Carlisle
When you have Messi playing at an MVP level, the prediction chooses itself. Along with his star-studded cast, the Argentine World Cup winner also just so happened to earn a hat trick in Miami’s latest 5-2 away win over … Nashville. The underdogs will have their chances against Miami’s improved-yet-still-worrying defense, but they won’t be able to compete against the firepower of Messi and friends. — Cesar Hernandez
Nashville hasn’t conceded too many goals this season (45 in total), but 16% of them were scored by Inter Miami. B.J. Callaghan’s squad secured the team’s first-ever trophy in the U.S. Open Cup last month, but they lost eight of their final 13 games, which includes two defeats to the Herons. I don’t think Messi & Co. allow their team to get knocked out in the first round for a second straight year against a team that’s not playing at full potential. — Megan Swanick
I have a simple policy when it comes to predicting MLS games: don’t pick against Messi’s team. Sure, Miami fell at the first possible hurdle in last year’s postseason, but it won’t happen two years in a row. — Joseph Lowery
A collective effort at the back inspired the success for Philadelphia this season, and likely will be the definitive factor against Chicago.
X-factor: The issue with this series is that, like Philadelphia at the back, the Fire also boast a strong collective. Since taking over the club, Gregg Berhalter has managed to unlock the potential of his starting 11 to make sure all players have an opportunity to shine. The Fire triumphed 3-1 over Orlando City, with Brian Gutiérrez scoring the team’s first playoff goal since 2012. Hugo Cuypers then paved the path for the victory, scoring twice to clinch the Round 1 ticket.
Tactical wrinkle: This series will see the East’s best defense facing off against the conference’s second-best attack. The Fire scored 68 goals throughout the regular season to trail only Miami, doing so without a Messi or a Luis Suárez leading the line. The battle between Chicago’s Cuypers and Philadelphia’s Wagner will be an interesting one to watch, and at certain points, hotly contested.
Berhalter’s team can certainly surprise the Union, especially after a dominant Wild Card performance. Carnell has done a great job at restructuring Philly’s roster, but the team continues to suffer in Sullivan’s absence. It will be a really close series, but if Chicago can break through Philadelphia’s defense, it can ensure a victory. — Becherano
The combination of stout defense plus Andre Blake behind them has been working for most of the season, and it won’t stop now. The Union will limit the Fire’s opportunities, and get plenty of their own against a leaky defense. — Arnold
The Fire certainly impressed in their Wild Card triumph over Orlando, but doing the same to the Supporters’ Shield winners is another challenge entirely. The Union’s press is ruthlessly effective, and Chicago’s defense is the worst among all of the playoff teams. As good as the Fire’s attack looked, it will be tough sledding against Philadelphia’s stingy backline. — Carlisle
We should praise the in-form Fire for making it to the playoffs for the first time since 2017, but barring some performances of the year from Cuypers or Philip Zinckernagel, Round 1 will be the end of the postseason run for a defensively worrisome Chicago. Philadelphia is elite at recovering the ball through its pressing, and coupled with its strong backline, this series should be over by the second game. — Hernandez
Star attraction: With 18 goals and 15 assists in 32 games, Evander will be the player to watch for this playoff edition of the Hell is Real derby. Cincinnati signed Evander as a Designated Player ahead of the 2025 MLS season, and has since made him an integral part of the attack. He hasn’t disappointed, leading the club to second place in the Eastern Conference table with 65 points.
Evander can quickly connect with teammates across the pitch to find the back of the net, as he did with Nick Hagglund against CF Montreal to conclude the regular season with a 3-0 victory. During that match, Evander assisted Hagglund to score the team’s first goal before the center back returned the favor and propelled Evander to double the score. If Cincinnati finds success against Columbus, it likely will be driven by Evander.
X-factor: Although Evander often drives the narrative of FCC’s success, Brenner should not be far behind in the conversation. He returned to the club at the end of August on a loan from Serie A club Udinese and has scored four goals in six games. Before leaving for his Italian adventure, he recorded 27 goals between 2021 and 2023, and set several team records in the process.
Now the forward links up with Evander to make for a formidable force that will be difficult for even the revered Crew coach Wilfried Nancy to game plan. Had he not left for Serie A, Brenner could have been a contender for multiple Golden Boots.
Tactical wrinkle: Columbus enters the series with a weakened attack, as Diego Rossi suffers from an injury and new DP Wessam Abou Ali is out for the season. What the Crew lack in attacking star power, however, they make up for in defensive efforts. Nancy usually lines up his side to dominate possession through the back and midfield before the attack can find the back of the net, making players like Dániel Gazdag and Darlington Nagbe crucial in the playoff series. — Becherano
The Crew used to be title contenders, challenging in most tournaments, but the team now struggles without the punch of Cucho Hernández, who moved to Real Betis before the start of the season. Cincinnati is the clear favorite and should take advantage of a downward-trending Columbus. Not even the brilliance of Nancy can save the Ohio capital club from the wonders of Evander. — Becherano
It feels like Columbus is a trendy upset pick because of its past track record, but between the Crew’s injuries and the form that Evander and Brenner are in, it feels like too big a gap to overcome. I expect Evander to continue to paper over some of the cracks FCC have and put them into the next round. — Arnold
Who doesn’t love the sound of a best-of-three Hell is Real derby? In two regular season meetings, the Crew held Cincinnati to a draw in May and won 4-2 in July, but odds are in Cincinnati’s favor for the postseason. While finishing second in the Supporters’ Shield race, the Blue and Orange are hitting the postseason on a five-game undefeated run with a dynamic attack that’s clicking. — Swanick
With the Crew’s heightened defensive shortcomings thanks to their set of injuries, it’s easy to picture Evander taking over this series. Knowing Cincinnati’s tendency to keep games close (16 of its 20 wins in the regular season came by a single goal), though, this series might go all three games. — Lowery