Bill ConnellyOct 24, 2025, 07:30 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X
Is Brian Kelly coaching for his job at LSU? (0:59)Josh Pate weighs in on whether LSU coach Brian Kelly is on the hot seat heading into the team’s matchup vs. Texas A&M. (0:59)
In recent years, Week 9 of the college football season has been good at shutting down fun upstart stories — or at least severely wounding them.
Think of unranked Wisconsin pummeling No. 9 Iowa, Mississippi State upsetting No. 12 Kentucky and Michigan State upending No. 6 Michigan in 2021. Or unranked Louisville upsetting No. 10 Wake Forest in 2022. Or Oregon blowing out No. 13 Utah in 2023 and No. 20 Illinois in 2024. Or Texas finishing off last season’s Diego Pavia-and-Vanderbilt episode. Before we get to November, where nearly everything we remember from a given season happens, we evidently have to declutter a bit.
The 2025 season has broken containment, and as we careen toward November, let’s see if it’s even possible for it to start making sense. Here’s everything you need to follow in a cluttered Week 9.
Though there’s a chance the SEC race gives us another Alabama-Georgia conference title game, I still believe we might have a major plot twist or two. Week 9 will help us figure out who might benefit from that plot twist, as the league again gives us a tripleheader of interesting matchups.
LSU’s offense is showing signs of improvement. Even with leading receiver Aaron Anderson limited, the Tigers averaged 6.7 yards per play against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, though red zone failures kept the point totals tamped down. Tight end Trey’Dez Green is becoming a matchup nightmare, and LSU ran the ball well for once against Vanderbilt. If Garrett Nussmeier can complete even a couple of downfield passes, this becomes a very dangerous team. Unfortunately, we’re still waiting on that.
On passes thrown at least 25 yards downfield, Nussmeier is a shocking 1-for-16 this season. If you can’t create easy points from big plays, and you stink in the red zone, it becomes awfully difficult to score touchdowns.
A&M is No. 3 in the country, but the stakes are higher for the Tigers, both because they’ve run out of margin for error in the playoff hunt and because of the increasing heat on coach Brian Kelly. If the Aggies overcome this team and this environment, they are legit SEC, and potentially national title, contenders.
On Oct. 18, 1947, No. 10 Vanderbilt hosted Bear Bryant’s 20th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats. Led by soon-to-be All-America center Jay Rhodemyre, Kentucky controlled the line of scrimmage, allowing just 151 total yards and getting just enough offense from George Blanda & Co. to prevail 14-0. The Commodores fell out of the AP top 10 … and didn’t return for 78 years. But here they are, ranked 10th and hosting Missouri and “College GameDay” on Saturday.
The Tigers better do that because Vandy’s offense is as efficient as they come: The Dores are first nationally in points per drive and third in success rate. The offensive line is excellent, backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young average 7.3 yards per carry, and quarterback Diego Pavia is the best improviser in the sport. The passing game isn’t particularly explosive, but it’s really hard to knock Vandy off-schedule.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second or 100% on third and fourth.)
From importance and “styles make fights” perspectives, Ole Miss’ first trip to Norman is one of the most interesting games of the week. As with Mizzou-Vandy, the winner will be in solid shape in the SEC race and in great shape for the College Football Playoff. Everywhere you look, it’s either strength-versus-strength or weakness-versus-weakness.
Of course, Ole Miss also allowed 43 points to the Dawgs. The Rebels are awful against the run, but OU hasn’t established much in that regard. Oklahoma’s success comes via the pass, but Ole Miss is decent in that regard (despite a poor pass rush), and Sooners quarterback John Mateer has averaged just 4.5 yards per dropback since rushing back from a hand injury.
With the way Ole Miss faltered late against Georgia and the way OU’s offense has performed of late, I could be talked into a blowout in either direction here.
Current line: OU -5.5 (up from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 5.0 | FPI projection: OU by 1.3
Surely UCLA can’t do it again, right? In the past three weeks, the Bruins have wrecked Penn State’s season (and James Franklin’s tenure), further wrecked Michigan State’s and hastened Maryland’s October demise. Now, they get a shot at Curt Cignetti’s brilliant Indiana Hoosiers.
The Bruins have turned around their season by creating negative plays and turnovers on defense and running the ball with ruthless efficiency behind backs Jalen Berger, Anthony Frias II and Jaivian Thomas. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is making just enough plays with his legs to overcome his sack-prone tendencies. (He’s also practicing this week after suffering an injury against Maryland last Saturday.)
Of course, Indiana almost completely avoids negative plays and turnovers on offense and both defends the run aggressively and sacks QBs like few others (third nationally in sack rate). The Hoosiers should handle this test quite well, though at this point, it might be fair to ask, what doesn’t Indiana do well? Where might the Hoosiers be vulnerable to a challenge between now and what feels like an inevitable battle with Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game?
1. The Hoosiers are strangely poor on fourth downs. They’re just 3-for-11 this season. Granted, this would be more of a problem if they weren’t fourth nationally in third-down conversion rate (54.9%), but something’s off there.
2. They’re sometimes too aggressive up front. They’re first nationally in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), but when they give up a successful rush, it’s a pretty big one. Big plays are holding them back at least slightly.
Current line: Indiana -25.5 (up from -23.5) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 27.9 | FPI projection: Indiana by 26.4
Not too long ago, Iowa State was 5-0 with wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa and a blowout of Arizona. But after losing cornerbacks Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams to ACL injuries, and with a nonexistent pass rush, the Cyclones gave up too many big plays in road losses to Cincinnati and Colorado. (The offense also failed in Boulder, turning 441 yards into just 17 points.)
Syracuse is 0-3 since quarterback Steve Angeli was lost for the season; Rickie Collins has thrown six interceptions in his past two games, and the Orange have lost to Duke, SMU and Pitt by an average of 33-11. Georgia Tech’s defense isn’t amazing but is probably good enough to keep Syracuse stuck in neutral.
Meanwhile, the Tech offense is the best the Orange have faced since Week 1 against Tennessee. It would be great for the Yellow Jackets if they could handle this one easily enough that Haynes King isn’t forced to run a lot and take lots of hits for once.
They know trophies in the Big Ten. They also know 5-2 records. Eight of the conference’s 18 teams are 5-2, and any of those teams that can win out and get to the finish line at 10-2 will be in the CFP conversation.
It’s really hard to beat the Floyd of Rosedale, a 98-pound bronze pig that Minnesota and Iowa have been fighting over for 90 years. Iowa has held on to it (him?) for nine of the past 10 years.
The Paul Bunyan Trophy is a pretty good reward in a series that has seen some recent momentum shifts. Michigan State won eight of 10 between 2008 and 2017 — a run that included one of the most shocking endings of the 21st century — but Michigan has won five of the past seven.
Both of these teams need this one. Michigan’s excellent 24-7 win over Washington last week laid out a scenario in which the Wolverines are 9-2 and riding a five-game winning streak when Ohio State visits.
Memphis’ shocking loss to UAB last week threw the races for both the American title and the Group of 5’s guaranteed playoff bid into uncertainty, and at first glance, it seems like USF is best poised to take advantage. Guess who will play against each other this weekend? Memphis and USF! It’s the pretty obvious G5 game of the week, though I’ve got another interesting game to put on your radar, too.
USF leaves no doubt. Apart from their 18-16 win over Florida, the Bulls have won five games by an average of 52-19 and suffered their lone loss (to Miami) 49-12. Alex Golesh’s offense is both ridiculously explosive and, thanks in part to quarterback Byrum Brown’s legs, excellent on third downs. And after an average defensive SP+ ranking of 113.0 in Golesh’s first two seasons, the Bulls are currently 57th.
South Dakota State lost coach Jimmy Rogers to Washington State and more than 20 transfers, including quarterback Mark Gronowski (Iowa), to FBS teams. North Dakota State lost a few stars, too, including running back CharMar Brown (Miami) and safety Cole Wisniewski (Texas Tech). The transfer portal can hit you especially, hard even at the FCS level.
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. We ended a three-week losing streak with a two-fer last week, so we’re back to 4-4 for the year.
This week, we set our sights on the Big 12. SP+ says there’s only a 54% chance that Cincinnati (75% win probability against Baylor), Utah (86% against Colorado), TCU (84% against West Virginia) and Texas Tech (99% against Oklahoma State) all win. I say there’s a 0% chance!
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
California at Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN). After the turmoil of the past few years, Cal reaching 5-2 is a cool story. But the Golden Bears have gotten here while beating only one team better than 90th in SP+. Virginia Tech is only 91st, but the interim-coached Hokies have been more competitive over the past month and are favored despite their 2-5 record.