Missouri Tigers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: Full Highlights (9:51)Missouri Tigers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: Full Highlights (9:51)
The 12 people in that room will absolutely care, though, that Vanderbilt is 7-1 now — with back-to-back wins against ranked SEC opponents LSU and Missouri. Vanderbilt — the story of the season — is on the brink of making its first appearance in any CFP ranking during the playoff era.
And not only will the Commodores crack the committee’s top 25, but they also will have a legitimate chance to make their debut in the coveted top 12 when the first ranking is released Nov. 4. If the playoff were today, they would already be in. A lot can — and will — change with one Saturday remaining before the first ranking is revealed, but here is a snapshot of what it might look like through Week 9 results.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers asserted themselves against a recharged UCLA team, leaving no doubt they were better in another lopsided win. Indiana still owns the best win in the country, Oct. 11 at Oregon, and the historic 63-10 win against Illinois is another separation point between the Hoosiers and other contenders. They don’t have a nonconference win, though, that stacks up against Ohio State’s season-opening win against Texas.
Need to know: The Hoosiers have passed their most difficult tests of the season. Their task now is to avoid what would be a shocking November upset. None of their remaining opponents are ranked and only Maryland (4-3) is above .500. If the Hoosiers run the table and play for the Big Ten championship, they should be a CFP lock. Even if they lose the title game, they should be in contention for a top-four finish and first-round bye.
Why they could be lower: The loss to Florida State happened, and the Noles are now 3-4. Meanwhile Texas A&M is still undefeated after its convincing road win at LSU, further enhancing its résumé with a second road win against a ranked opponent.
Need to know: Alabama has a much-needed bye week and won’t play again before the selection committee releases its first ranking on Nov. 4. This eight-game résumé is what the group will use to determine where Alabama starts.
Why they could be higher: The Aggies are undefeated and some committee members would have a hard time forgetting Alabama’s loss to Florida State.
Need to know: The Aggies and Tide don’t play each other during the regular season, but could settle the debate in the SEC championship game. Texas A&M also doesn’t play Georgia during the regular season.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns’ playoff hopes could be on the line, and finishing the season on the road against a rival is never easy.
Why they could be lower: Lopsided wins against Marshall and Austin Peay aren’t going to impress anyone in the committee meeting room. Kentucky and Auburn have at least four losses each. The Bulldogs entered their bye week No. 6 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric.
Need to know: Rival Georgia Tech has the best chance of any team to reach the ACC championship game, which means Georgia has an opportunity to possibly enhance its résumé with a win against the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are currently undefeated and pushed the Bulldogs to eight overtimes last year. This year’s game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Why they could be here: The Rebels earned their first road win against a ranked SEC opponent on Saturday at Oklahoma, adding to an already impressive résumé that includes wins against Tulane and LSU. The eight-point loss at Georgia on Oct. 18 is the only blemish, and it’s one of the best ways to lose in the eyes of the committee — on the road to a ranked opponent in a close game. That head-to-head result, though, will keep Ole Miss behind Georgia as long as their records remain the same.
Why they could be lower: The Rebels entered Week 9 ranked No. 71 in defensive efficiency, well below most other contenders here. Typically, top playoff teams rank in the top 10-15 in both offense and defense. Ole Miss had allowed 22 points per game through the first seven games, and was No. 108 in the country with 10 sacks. They’re also one of the most penalized teams in the nation, giving up 69 penalty yards per game through the first seven games.
Why they could be lower: Some selection committee members could argue that Vanderbilt has a better résumé than both Oregon and Miami as far as one-loss teams. Even before the Commodores earned their second win against a ranked opponent, they were No. 11, sandwiched between No. 10 Oregon and No. 12 Miami in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Pitt. The Panthers have won four straight games, including a stunning 53-34 win against NC State on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The Ducks came out flat against a struggling Wisconsin team, and don’t have a lot on their résumé to compare with other one-loss teams. Vanderbilt has two better wins, and undefeated BYU can argue better wins against Utah and Iowa State. The committee would point out an FCS win against Montana State, and Oklahoma State and Oregon State are a combined 2-14. Overall, Oregon entered Saturday with the No. 31 strength of schedule — just slightly ahead of No. 34 Vanderbilt.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The 6-2 Huskies have only lost to Ohio State and on the road against Michigan.
Why they could be lower: The committee could reward the undefeated Big 12 and ACC teams simply because they haven’t lost yet.
Need to know: This position could change quickly, as Vandy is at Texas on Saturday, it’s last chance to make a first impression on the selection committee before its first ranking. Vandy’s last two games against ranked SEC opponents are both on the road; Saturday at Texas and in the regular-season finale on Nov. 29 at Tennessee.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Texas. The Longhorns are desperately trying to keep their playoff hopes alive by avoiding a third loss, and ESPN Analytics gives them at least a 70% chance to win.
Why they could be lower: The committee would discuss an FCS win against Portland State, and a win against a sub-.500 team in West Virginia. BYU also needed double overtime to win at unranked, three-loss Arizona on Oct. 11.
Need to know: This was BYU’s last chance to impress the selection committee before the first ranking is revealed on Nov. 4 because they have a bye week on Saturday. The committee will have an undefeated Big 12 team to consider for its first of six rankings.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders rebounded from their loss at Arizona State with a convincing win against a beleaguered Oklahoma State team on Saturday. BYU and Texas Tech have the highest chances to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics, followed by Cincinnati. The Cougars have to play both opponents on the road during the regular season, but have a bye week to prepare for the Nov. 8 game at Texas Tech.
Why they could be higher: The Yellow Jackets would likely be behind BYU because the Cougars have better wins, but they could both be above Vanderbilt if more committee members keep the Commodores lower because of their loss to Alabama.
Need to know: Without any CFP Top 25 wins on their résumé, style points could come in handy in November in case Georgia Tech loses to rival Georgia and doesn’t win the ACC. A win against Georgia, though, would impress the committee any way it happened. That would make it much easier for the group to include Georgia Tech as an at-large team if the Jackets’ lone loss is to the ACC champion.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia. The Yellow Jackets took their rival to eight overtimes last year before losing, 44-42, in Athens.
Why they could be lower: With the losses to Miami and Texas A&M, Notre Dame checked in at No. 18 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric entering Saturday. It didn’t help that Miami lost to Louisville.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Notre Dame would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — Memphis as the projected American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12. As an independent, Notre Dame can’t lock up a spot in the playoff as one of the five conference champions, so its only path is through an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. Notre Dame is projected to win each of its remaining games, but this one is on the road against an ACC team above .500. The Irish entered Week 9 with the best chance in the country to win out (68.4%).
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
Need to know: Ohio State’s spot at the top isn’t a guarantee as the season progresses. If Alabama runs the table and wins the SEC, the selection committee would at least consider the Tide for the No. 1 spot. Alabama entered Saturday with the No. 2 toughest schedule in the country — Ohio State was No. 33. The question would be if enough committee members could forgive the season-opening loss to Florida State, which has looked worse every week. So while this pecking order has been fairly stable with the Big Ten at the top, the possibility of shuffling remains — and that includes a promotion for the Hoosiers, too, if they finish as undefeated Big Ten champs.
Why they could be here: The Tide avoided an upset on the road against a scrappy South Carolina team, preserving its position as what should be the committee’s top one-loss team. Alabama hasn’t lost since its season-opener at Florida State, and has four wins against ranked opponents. The Tide entered Saturday ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, No. 2 in strength of schedule, and in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The win against Georgia will keep the Tide above the Bulldogs as long as their records remain the same because of the committee’s tiebreaker protocol.