Finebaum: Ole Miss made the biggest statement to the CFP committee (0:40)Paul Finebaum explains why Ole Miss’ road win against Oklahoma makes the Rebels a virtual lock for the playoff and quiets the noise surrounding Lane Kiffin. (0:40)
There’s only one month left in the regular season, and Saturday will be the last chance for teams to make an impression on the College Football Playoff selection committee before the first of six rankings is revealed Nov. 4.
The SEC continues to lead the way with more than a 95% chance to send at least four teams to the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, followed by the Big Ten, with a 65% chance to have three teams. It gets interesting in the ACC and Big 12, though, where multiple contenders on the bubble are trying to make a case for a second bid as an at-large team.
The 12-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies, plus what each team has done to date.
Out: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
Below, you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into five groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. A team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now. And a team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
Enigma: Oklahoma. The Sooners have the second-most difficult schedule remaining in the country, which can either impress the committee enough to land a spot as a two-loss team if they win — or knock out OU. If Oklahoma somehow wins back-to-back road games at Tennessee and Alabama, the Sooners would be catching the committee’s attention at the right time. Oklahoma’s biggest problem is its loss to rival Texas because if the Sooners were to run the table and finish 10-2, the selection committee’s protocol includes head-to-head results as one of its tiebreakers. It’s possible both teams could get in, but if the committee had to choose, it would be difficult not to select Texas because of the Oct. 11 win. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, if OU and Texas ran the table, the rivals would both have at least a 95% chance to reach the playoff.
Spotlight: USC. Both of USC’s losses were on the road to respectable opponents in Illinois and Notre Dame, but the Trojans still have another big opportunity for a road win against a ranked opponent Nov. 22 at Oregon. It’s also possible that 6-2 Iowa shows up in the committee’s top 25 at some point. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, if USC ran the table — and independent of other results — the Trojans would have an 82.9% chance to reach the playoff. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games — except for Nov. 22 at Oregon, where the Ducks have a 70.8% chance to win. The Big Ten is top-heavy, with Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon leading the way, but there is still a month for some second-tier teams to make a push.
Enigma: Louisville. The Cardinals are going to be haunted all season by their three-point overtime loss to Virginia, but the 24-21 win at Miami on Oct. 17 was the best possible rebound they could ask for. The rest of Louisville’s schedule isn’t easy — most difficult trip Nov. 22 at SMU — but the Cardinals still have a 20.8% chance to reach the ACC championship game and a 12.5% chance to reach the playoff. Part of that is because ESPN Analytics gives Louisville less than a 50% chance to win at SMU.
Spotlight: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are the first team out in this week’s top 12 projection, having dropped out after their Oct. 18 loss at Arizona State. That loss took another small hit in Week 9 after ASU suffered its third defeat of the season. The Red Raiders are still on track, though, to meet BYU in the Big 12 title game, as that’s the most likely matchup (34%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech also hosts BYU on Nov. 8 in what will be arguably the Big 12’s biggest game of the regular season. If BYU can stay undefeated — but loses in the Big 12 championship game — the conference would have its best chance at getting two teams in the CFP because the winner would be guaranteed a spot, and one-loss BYU would have an excellent case to join them. If Texas Tech beats BYU and finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up to the Cougars, it would also have a strong case thanks to a regular-season win against the Big 12 champion. It would likely be compared with a two-loss ACC runner-up, though, and that’s where things could get interesting. The Red Raiders’ best wins would be at Utah, at Houston and against BYU. How the conference title games unfold would also play a role in the committee’s decision.
On the cusp: Notre Dame. The Irish had a bye week after a five-game winning streak, but the slow climb back into playoff contention continues at unranked Boston College on Saturday. They need to run the table — and look like a playoff team — to move into a more secure spot. At No. 12 in this week’s projection, Notre Dame would be excluded from the playoff to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which this week is projected to be Memphis from the American. According to ESPN Analytics, Notre Dame still has the best chance in the country to win out (67.1%).
Finebaum: Ole Miss made the biggest statement to the CFP committee (0:40)Paul Finebaum explains why Ole Miss’ road win against Oklahoma makes the Rebels a virtual lock for the playoff and quiets the noise surrounding Lane Kiffin. (0:40)
Paul Finebaum explains why Ole Miss’ road win against Oklahoma makes the Rebels a virtual lock for the playoff and quiets the noise surrounding Lane Kiffin. (0:40)
After nine weeks, there’s still a lot of hope on the bubble.
Reminder: This will change week to week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
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Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina
Would be out: Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern
Out: Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Would be out: Arizona, Arizona State, Iowa State, TCU, UCF, Utah
Out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Ole Miss No. 10 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Miami (ACC champ) No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 8 Oregon
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama No. 10 BYU/No. 7 Miami winner vs. No. 2 Indiana No. 9 Vanderbilt/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) No. 2 Indiana No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ) No. 4 Texas A&M