Myron MedcalfCloseMyron MedcalfESPN Staff WriterMyron Medcalf covers college basketball for ESPN.com. He joined ESPN in 2011.Follow on XJeff BorzelloCloseJeff BorzelloBasketball recruiting insiderJeff Borzello is a basketball recruiting insider. He has joined ESPN in 2014.Follow on XOct 27, 2025, 09:00 AM ET
play2:04Vols’ Rick Barnes explains how style of play has changedTennessee’s Barnes describes how he has seen different systems through his career and goes back in the vault to implement those styles into his team today.
play3:45Matt McMahon expresses confidence in LSU’s returners and transfersMcMahon shares his vision while describing the Tigers’ portal additions and lists multiple returners he believes are on the verge of breakout seasons.
Vols’ Rick Barnes explains how style of play has changedTennessee’s Barnes describes how he has seen different systems through his career and goes back in the vault to implement those styles into his team today.
Tennessee’s Barnes describes how he has seen different systems through his career and goes back in the vault to implement those styles into his team today.
Matt McMahon expresses confidence in LSU’s returners and transfersMcMahon shares his vision while describing the Tigers’ portal additions and lists multiple returners he believes are on the verge of breakout seasons.
McMahon shares his vision while describing the Tigers’ portal additions and lists multiple returners he believes are on the verge of breakout seasons.
More than six months ago, Walter Clayton Jr. won Most Outstanding Player honors on one of the most thrilling runs to the national championship since Kemba Walker led UConn in 2011. The Florida Gators were not viewed as a top-tier team entering last season, though, checking in at 21st in the preseason AP poll and 24th in last year’s version of these tiers.
Things can change quickly in college basketball, which means, like last season’s champions, some of the following teams will be in a different tier by the end of 2025-26. Still, we have ordered 80 of the sport’s 365 Division I teams into tiers by their NCAA tournament chances.
Yes, there are clear championship and Final Four contenders (newsflash: Duke will be good again). But there are also teams with second-weekend potential that could fall to the bubble (Auburn has lost a lot of talent and a head coach), likely bubble teams that could pull off an upset (Washington is intriguing), teams moving in the wrong direction, teams ready to take a step (or two) forward — and everything in between.
ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf organize the chaos of that wide range of potential outcomes by sorting 80 noteworthy programs into 10 tiers as the Nov. 3 season tipoff draws closer.
These were the four teams that received first-place votes in the preseason AP poll and the four atop ESPN’s preseason top 25. In other words: These are your national title favorites entering the season.
Purdue is eyeing its first national championship, led by Wooden Award favorite Braden Smith and fellow potential All-American Trey Kaufman-Renn — the best inside-outside duo in the country. Two other starters also return for Matt Painter, who then added double-double machine Oscar Cluff from the transfer portal plus highly regarded international prospect Omer Mayer.
Florida is a legitimate threat to go back-to-back, especially with the way Todd Golden finished his reloading efforts last spring. The Gators replaced do-everything NCAA tournament hero Clayton with Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee, two high-level offensive guards with real playmaking chops when the ball is in their hands. They also return the best frontcourt in the country, headlined by Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon.
After falling devastatingly short in the title game last April, Houston will look to finish the job this season. The Cougars were able to keep Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp and Joseph Tugler in school, and they are bringing in three top-25 recruits as reinforcements. It might take some time for the newcomers to get up to speed on playing Kelvin Sampson-coached defense, but we have faith they will be there in March.
Rounding out the top tier is UConn, which took an inevitable step back last season after winning back-to-back national championships in 2023 and 2024. But Dan Hurley and the Huskies are poised for a return to the national title discussion. Tarris Reed Jr. is back down low, and the trio of Solo Ball, Braylon Mullins and Alex Karaban is as good as it gets from an offensive and shooting perspective. The addition of Silas Demary Jr. should solve their point guard issues. — Borzello
BYU Cougars St. John’s Red Storm Louisville Cardinals Michigan Wolverines Duke Blue Devils Kentucky Wildcats Texas Tech Red Raiders Arkansas Razorbacks
Every team on this list has the potential to move into the national title conversation with the right mix of chemistry and execution. That starts with BYU, which owned the nation’s best offense in the last two months of 2024-25 as the program reached the Sweet 16 in Kevin Young’s first year at the helm. Now, the Cougars have added AJ Dybantsa, a five-star prospect who has his sights set on the No. 1 spot in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Also in that race for the top overall pick is Duke freshman Cameron Boozer, the leader of a Blue Devils crew with ESPN’s top 2025 recruiting class. Ten years ago, a similarly youthful and talented Duke squad captured the final national title of Mike Krzyzewski’s reign.
Finally, Louisville (Mikel Brown Jr.) and Arkansas (Darius Acuff Jr.) have added a pair of dynamic guards with NBA dreams. — Medcalf
These teams have a couple more question marks than the tier above, but history suggests a few will play themselves into the Final Four discussion and a top-five rank at some point this season.
Arizona and Illinois are loaded with different types of talent. Wildcats coach Tommy Lloyd will rely heavily on five-star freshmen Koa Peat and Brayden Burries, while Illinois’ Brad Underwood went the overseas route to add five players with Balkan ties to the rotation. How quickly the newcomers get up to speed will be key for both programs.
Perhaps the most fascinating team in this tier is Auburn, which had a seismic coaching change when Bruce Pearl retired as the Tigers’ head coach only six weeks before tipoff, passing the reigns to his son Steven. Tahaad Pettiford is one of the most electric point guards in the country, while Keyshawn Hall and KeShawn Murphy are proven high-major transfers.
Vols’ Rick Barnes explains how style of play has changed
Then there’s Michigan State, which brings four rotation players back from a team that won 30 games and a Big Ten regular-season title. If coach Tom Izzo can find a difference-maker on the perimeter among his newcomers, this tier will be one too low for Sparty. — Borzello
For some programs, inclusion in this tier will seem like a letdown. For others, winning an NCAA tournament game would mean a successful season. The latter group starts with Will Wade and NC State. A season after the Wolfpack won just 12 games, Wade takes over the helm with a new roster led by Darrion Williams — one of the top available transfers who starred for Texas Tech in the Elite Eight — in a debut season that could yield immediate results.
Iowa also falls under that banner. New Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum and last season’s Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year Bennett Stirtz are at their third stop together following successful campaigns at Drake and Northwest Missouri State. NCAA tournament victories for Texas (first season with Sean Miller), Virginia (first season for Ryan Odom) and Ohio State (Jake Diebler’s second full season) would also be celebrated as positive steps under new leadership.
The same can’t be said for North Carolina. The Tar Heels landing in this tier would have seemed blasphemous only a few years ago, but after they stumbled into last season’s NCAA tournament and Hubert Davis’ job status became the subject of hot-seat talk, a tournament victory could be the only way to stabilize this program. If it happens, five-star recruit Caleb Wilson will likely play a role in that mission.
This list is a mix. New coaches have changed the fortunes of select teams, while star power is the reason for hype around the rest.
Tucker DeVries played only a handful of games at West Virginia last season, but the two-time Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year followed his father, new Indiana head coach Darian DeVries, to Bloomington. The Hoosiers lost five players who averaged at least 9.0 points last season but could still be a bubble threat in DeVries’ first year at the helm after regrouping around his son, a potential All-American.
Bucky McMillan has an intriguing group for his first season at Texas A&M, too. On paper, a roster featuring Pop Isaacs (Texas Tech), Jacari Lane (North Alabama) and Mackenzie Mgbako (Indiana) — all transfers who averaged double figures at their programs last season — should be squarely on the bubble with the potential for more if the Aggies develop the right chemistry.
Second-team All-American P.J. Haggerty’s decision to transfer from Memphis to Kansas State was arguably the biggest portal move of the spring. He and Notre Dame’s Markus Burton, a second-team All-ACC performer last season, will be difference-makers for teams looking to flip the script after sub-.500 campaigns. If the Wildcats and Fighting Irish make the NCAA tournament, few opponents would have players more capable than those two dynamic guards.
Utah State’s Mason Falslev (15.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.3 SPG, 39% 3P%) and Mississippi State’s Josh Hubbard (18.9 PPG, 3.1 APG) are two of the country’s top players on teams that won 20-plus games and reached the NCAA tournament in 2024-25. Their squads have lost key players, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they moved up a tier by the end of the season.
Washington is probably the most intriguing team on this list. Danny Sprinkle’s crew finished 13-18 last season despite landing top-ranked players in the transfer portal. Yet, the arrival and return of Wesley Yates III (redshirted for the Huskies in 2023-24 before transferring to USC in 2024-25) and the addition of his former Trojans teammate Desmond Claude (15.8 PPG) means the Huskies have the look of a dangerous bubble team. — Medcalf