Craig Haubert, Eli Lederman and Tom LuginbillOct 29, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
How will the coaching carousel impact the 2026 cycle?
In the latest update to the 2026 ESPN 300 prospect rankings, only eight members remain uncommitted entering the final month of the college football regular season. Class of 2026 recruits will have their first opportunity to sign with programs during the early signing period from Dec. 3-5. After that, unsigned prospects must wait until national signing day on Feb. 4, 2026.
In any given cycle, the final six weeks before the early signing period tends to produce plenty of drama. This fall, the introduction of revenue share contracts and an unprecedented coaching carousel have only doused the flames, laying the foundation of what could be an action-packed finish to the latest cycle across November/early December and, perhaps, even into early 2026.
As of now, 11 head coaches have been fired across FBS football this fall with eight jobs open in Power 4 leagues. According to Front Office Sports, those 11 schools have committed more than $169 million combined in contract buyouts so far, including two of the largest buyouts in college football history that could be doled out at LSU and Penn State this month.
And still, as questions hover over the coaching situations at Auburn, Florida State, Michigan State and Wisconsin, to name just a few, the 2025 coaching carousel appears far from over.
“I think there’s going to be a lot of coaching attrition that still goes on,” one Big 12 general manager told ESPN. “It’s going to hit the cycle hard. This is going to be a crazy last month.”
Traditionally, an in-season coaching firing is the first salvo in a class collapse, dismantling years of work on the recruiting trail in a single decision. At Penn State, for instance, the Nittany Lions have lost 10 commits from a promising class since the school fired James Franklin on Oct. 12.
However, Florida has managed to avoid even a single decommitment in the wake of Billy Napier’s Oct. 19 departure. At LSU, sources expect a 12th-ranked Tigers’ recruiting class that includes 10 ESPN 300 pledges, including No. 1 overall Lamar Brown, to hold tight, as well, at least for the time being.
Perhaps that’s program-specific; LSU’s regional presence and the program’s dedication to recruiting the state of Louisiana means its prospects are often committed to more than just a coach. Maybe recruits at places like Florida and LSU are just waiting for the market to play out.
But industry sources point to other factors that could be keeping recruits committed despite this season’s rash of early-fall firings.
“They have to decide: Do I want to stay here and make what I’m making or do I want to jump?” an SEC personnel director said. “At the same time, they may not make that same money if they stay. What if the next guy comes in and says, ‘I don’t think you’re worth that much?'”
Does that mean there won’t be movement over the next month? Of course not. But industry sources expect recruits and programs to be more selective this fall than in year’s past.
“I think you’re going to see a lot of late flips in November,” one agent said. “They’re going to be targeted flips — guys decommitting knowing exactly where they’re going.”
Industry sources also surmise that the coaching carousel could return some juice to the increasingly antiquated February signing day. But the chaos of the coaching carousel could change things in the 2026 class. If high-profile hiring processes stretch into December, uncommitted prospects and those pledged to programs searching for a new coach might hang tight in early December, holding off for the relative certainty and stability of the February signing window.
“No matter what, it’s definitely not ideal,” said one Power 4 quarterback committed to coach on the hot seat this fall. “It feels like things could change any given day.”
S Bralan Womack, Auburn, No. 39 in ESPN 300: Womack, the No. 3 safety in 2026, has been the Tigers’ top-ranked pledge since he committed to Auburn over Florida, Ohio State and Texas A&M on Aug. 21. As long as Hugh Freeze remains in charge of the program, sources expect Womack to remain the cornerstone of the Tigers’ incoming class.
However, Freeze’s future is far from certain with Auburn sitting at 4-4 in his third season, and Womack has already let his frustrations around the program’s on-field performance spill over this month. Where could Womack land things change with the Tigers over the next month?
Womack took a surprise visit to LSU for the Tigers’ Week 9 loss to Texas A&M. Colorado emerged as another newcomer in his process with an offer on Oct. 21. It would be no surprise to see August finalists Ohio State and Texas A&M circle back if/when Womack is on the move.
CB Justice Fitzpatrick, Georgia, No. 45 in ESPN 300: The coveted cornerback from South Florida committed to the Bulldogs on June 3, then publicly announced that his recruitment was formally shut down seven days later. Still, at least two prominent programs have continued to pursue Fitzpatrick this fall: Miami and Ohio State.
ESPN’s No. 4 cornerback prospect has taken a pair of visits to see the Hurricanes play this fall, and Fitzpatrick’s family also holds a longstanding connection with Miami coach Mario Cristobal, who recruited Fitzpatrick’s older brother — eventual All-American and NFL All-Pro defender Minkah Fitzpatrick — to Alabama in 2015. With Ohio State, Fitzpatrick has relationships with first-year coordinator Matt Patricia and longtime secondary coach Tim Walton.
OT Kevin Brown, Penn State, No. 79 in ESPN 300: One of the longest-tenured members of the Nittany Lions’ class, Brown has not formally pulled his commitment from Penn State. But following the school’s firing of coach James Franklin, sources tell ESPN that Brown and his family consider his recruitment to be open as the Nittany Lions search for their next coach.
The Buckeyes and Mountaineers should be considered favorites if Brown ultimately signs elsewhere. But the right at Penn State could be all it takes to keep him in the program’s class.
OT Micah Smith, UCLA, No. 81 in ESPN 300: Smith landed as the highest-ranked pledge of the DeShaun Foster era when he committed to UCLA in June. Nearly five months later, Foster is gone and Smith remains the lone ESPN 300 commit in the Bruins’ 2026 class.
Since Foster’s September firing, Ohio State, Texas and South Carolina have emerged as the front-runners for Smith, who also visited Ole Miss in September. The Buckeyes should hold an edge as finalists in Smith’s initial process if he elects to go elsewhere.
Indiana Hoosiers: With the Hoosiers’ ranked No. 2 nationally and coach Curt Cignetti working with a fresh contract extension, Indiana is looking to convert its on-field success into recruiting momentum between now and the early signing period. Specifically, Cignetti and Co. appear ready to pounce on the fallout of Penn State’s firing of Franklin.
Former Nittany Lions wide receiver commit Lavar Keys was on hand for the Hoosiers’ rout of UCLA in Week 9. Sources tell ESPN that Indiana now stands as a front-runner alongside Maryland for the three-star pass catcher from Hyattsville, Maryland.
Longtime Penn State pledge Messiah Mickens is another former Franklin recruit who’s interested in the Hoosiers; the nation’s No. 14 running back prospect recently told ESPN that he plans to visit the program. Wide receiver Davion Brown (No. 109 overall) and safety Matt Sieg (No. 162) represent two more Nittany Lions pledges on Indiana’s radar as Cignetti and Co. search for the final additions to a 2026 class that sits 31st in ESPN’s class rankings for the cycle.
Sources tell ESPN that the Hoosiers are also targeting late-rising offensive line talent. The program hosted Washington State offensive tackle commit Beckett Schreiber this past Saturday.
Miami Hurricanes: Miami reaches November firmly in the playoff hunt and holding onto the nation’s 14th-ranked 2026 class. With the Hurricanes still pursuing several high-profile targets, could coach Mario Cristobal vault Miami to a second top-10 recruiting finish in three cycles?
If Miami can’t swing a top 100 defensive tackle flips, three-star UNLV decommit Isaiah Broughton — who returned to Coral Gables last weekend — could be a more realistic option.
Sources continue to mention Syracuse wide receiver commit Calvin Russell (No. 32) and Georgia cornerback pledge Justice Fitzpatrick (No. 45) as significant flip candidates for Miami. Both are expected to be prominently linked with the Hurricanes up to the early signing period.
Michigan Wolverines: Coach Sherrone Moore and his staff closed stronger than almost any other program in the country in the 2025 cycle. And while the Wolverines’ finish in the 2026 class might not be quite as flashy, Michigan has holes to fill and a deep list of flip targets this fall.
Looking to make another addition or two on the offensive line, the Wolverines offered four-star Duke commit Sean Stover in late September. Michigan hosted ESPN’s No. 179 overall recruit on Oct 18 and is expected to maintain its efforts with Stover in November. Among the Wolverines other offensive line flip targets: three-star tackles Charlie Edgeworth (Louisville) and Tommy Fraumann (Miami, Ohio), and Virginia Tech guard pledge Adrian Hamilton.
Michigan’s search for a late-cycle linebacker is set to continue after former Michigan State commit Braylon Hodge picked Oregon over the Wolverines and Texas on Oct. 24. Three-star Georgia pledge Nick Abrams, an early October visitor in Ann Arbor, remains a top target.
Ohio State Buckeyes: As the defending national champions charge toward another CFP berth, Ohio State and coach Ryan Day are still working to bolster the nation’s No. 9 recruiting class, circling late-cycle moves at running back, offensive tackle and in the secondary.
Like Miami, the Buckeyes haven’t closed their pursuit of Georgia cornerback pledge Justice Fitzpatrick (No. 45 overall). Other targets at the position include Florida pledge C.J. Bronaugh (No. 245) and Florida State commit Jay Timmons (No. 195 overall), who is set to visit Ohio State in Week 10.