Overall Record 24-21
Week 9 Picks update: 4-1
Ole Miss +5.5 – W
Kansas State +3.5 – W
Iowa State -2.5 – L
Iowa/Minn Over 39.5 – W
Houston +6.5 – W
After a much needed break, I came out firing with a 4-1 record last week. At one point I was thinking a sweep was coming as Iowa State was up 2 scores late in the second quarter, but that proved too good to be true. This is the best week I have had so far and I am looking to build on it. At the beginning of the season, week 10 looked like it would be one for the ages with an unprecedented amount of ranked matchups – that is no longer the case. There are still some good ones so lets get into them and find the winners.
9Vanderbilt at 20Texas (-2.5)
Texas comes into this game after back to back overtime wins against 2 of the 3 worst teams in the SEC. They have looked like they were dead in the water multiple times this year, but they haven’t drowned yet. Vanderbilt continued their impressive season by grinding out a win against Missouri last week. They have a tough road test in this one, and their last road trip to a hostile environment didn’t end well after they got rolled by the Tide. The biggest story in this game is the health of QB Arch Manning, who finally had an impressive game after struggling most of the year against SEC teams. He is practicing, but is still in concussion protocol. Regardless of the signal caller for the Longhorns, I still think Vandy is the better team. They beat themselves in that Alabama game, and they will learn from their mistakes. They will take care of the football and the Longhorns as well. This may be the dagger (Kevin Harlan voice). Vandy +2.5
10Miami (-11.5) at SMU
Miami comes into this one after a bounce back game against Stanford, While SMU is reeling from their poor showing at Wake Forest. Beck has certainly come back down to Earth a bit after his red hot start to the season, but he is still a solid QB overall. SMU has not played a lot of tough competition this year, and when they have – they’ve lost. Miami probably has to run the table the rest of the year to get into the ACC championship and it starts with this weekend on the road in Dallas. I went to SMU’s stadium earlier this year when they faced Baylor and I have never seen a less intimidating home field crowd, so I don’t think that will be much of a factor in this one either. Miami is 5-2 ATS this year while SMU is 2-5 – another reason to back the Canes. I think Miami gets up early and coasts to an easy victory. Miami -11.5.
Mississippi State at Arkansas (O/U 67.5)
Two teams with nothing to lose. Both 0-4 in the SEC and surprisingly solid offenses. Arkansas is averaging 35 PPG and has scored at least 31 in 6/8 games this year. Their defense has been the issue, and I don’t see that getting fixed this weekend. Mississippi State offense has been great at times, but a little more hit or miss than the Razorbacks O has been. They tend to struggle against stronger defenses, but luckily they will not face a tough defense in this one. They scored 34 on Tenn and 38 on Texas, both teams who have better defensive units than Arkansas. Not much to overthink in this one. Points points and more points are coming, take the Over 67.5 and enjoy a shootout.
13Texas Tech (-7.5) at Kansas State
Texas Tech enters this one after a complete dismantling of Oklahoma State last weekend, and their sights are set on getting to Arlington still. Their loss to ASU was definitely a setback, but everything they want is still right in front of them. Kansas State on the other hand has really turned it around after an atrocious start to their season. They are technically still alive in the Big 12 race and they have a lot to play for as well. Their fan base has certainly not given up on them, and I expect the stadium to be packed to the brim in the Little Apple in this one. I truly think something clicked with them over the last few weeks and they look like a top 5 Big 12 team currently. I think they can give Texas Tech some trouble and expect that home crowd to keep them in it. I am going to keep riding with this team until the wheels fall off, and getting 7.5 points at home feels like a gift. Wildcats +7.5.
17Cincinnati at 24Utah (-10.5)
Who would have thought this game would be a marquee matchup when the schedule came out? Since UT and OU left the Big 12, it seems like there is always a team that was picked to finish toward the bottom of the conference shocks everyone and becomes a problem. Cincinnati is that team this year and it doesn’t look like they are going anywhere either. Their QB Brendan Sorsby has been a revelation with 20 TDs and only one interception on the year. Utah has been solid and their defense is super stout as usual. Utah is a tough place to play at night, and I don’t expect Cinci to walk in and walk all over them, but I expect them to push Utah to the limit. The Bearcats offense can and will make some noise in this one. Cincinnati +10.5.
Final Picks:
Vandy +2.5
Miami -11.5
Miss St / Arkansas Over 67.5
Kansas State +7.5
Cincinnati +10.5
Written By Blake Mire @BlakeMire on X
This is not financial advice, tail or fade at your own risk.