Bill ConnellyOct 31, 2025, 07:50 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on X
Examining the key factors ahead of No. 20 Texas vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt (2:40)SEC Now’s Gene Chizik stresses the Longhorns’ need to develop a run game while encouraging their defensive schemes and praises the Commodores’ balanced attack on offense. (2:40)
Keep your head on a swivel — there are upsets on the way. Using playoff tiers as our guide, here’s everything you need to follow in a spooky and mysterious Week 10.
Week 10 might not affect those in Tiers 1 and 2 much, barring a huge road upset, but let’s walk through this week’s slate, tier-by-tier.
At this point, any of these teams might have to lose three times to fall out of CFP contention. Texas A&M still has to travel to Missouri and Texas and host an athletic South Carolina squad, but it’s safe to say these teams are in great shape. The Aggies are off this week, and the Hoosiers and Buckeyes are favored by 20-plus points.
Penn State played well in a tight loss at Iowa two weeks ago and still has plenty of top-end talent. The Nittany Lions are just good enough that Ohio State might do what it has done to Ohio, Washington and others: trade some blows and let their opponent hang around for a quarter or two before hitting the accelerator.
Maryland enters November having collapsed once again. The Terps are 21-5 in September under Mike Locksley and 15-28 thereafter. So, this isn’t the best time to be playing a team that just moved to first in SP+. Indiana ranks first nationally in points per drive and second in points allowed. The defense is picking up some injuries, but if the Hoosiers bring even their B-game, they’ll cruise.
NC State is physical, randomly explosive and dangerous despite suffering four losses in five games. But it will be difficult making stops against a Tech offense that can beat you with either big plays or relentless efficiency. Quarterback and resident tough guy Haynes King gets the benefit of the doubt at this point, even if he looks like a grizzled 20-year veteran every time he gets up after a hit.
Teams have played well under interim coaches this year — and there have been a lot of them — and with Florida’s stellar defense, it wouldn’t take many breaks for the Gators to make this a game. But considering Georgia spots every opponent a multiscore lead and then wins anyway, it’s hard to think Gunner Stockton and the Dawgs won’t find a way.
Ole Miss is in fantastic playoff shape, but the Rebels haven’t won an SEC title in 62 years, and they don’t have a ton of margin for error in that hunt. South Carolina is a terrifying underdog with the raw, individual talent and athleticism it boasts — just ask Alabama — but that dreadful offensive line will probably prevent the Gamecocks from making a sustained challenge.
Current line: Rebels -12.5 (down from -14.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: Rebels by 16.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 9.9
At 7-1 and ranked ninth in the country, having narrowly escaped against Missouri last week, Clark Lea’s incredible Vanderbilt Commodores remain one of the main characters of the 2025 season. Diego Pavia guides an offense that ranks seventh in success rate* and points per drive, the defense that ranked 124th in defensive SP+ just two seasons ago now ranks 32nd, and the Commodores still have a likely mulligan in their pocket heading into November.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
The Commodores won’t be the main characters in Austin on Saturday, however. Those honors instead go to their host, the preseason No. 1 team that has looked like a playoff team, at most, once this season.
The defense will still help. For as good as Vandy’s offense has been this season, Texas’ D is the best the Commodores have faced, and against three other top-15 defenses, the Commodores have averaged a merely decent 20.7 points per game (against everyone else: 49.0 points per game). Texas probably won’t have to score around 40 to win Saturday, but the Horns will either start looking like the contenders they were supposed to be, or they will bow out of the playoff hunt.
OK, no more getting hurt, Behren Morton. Texas Tech lost its starting quarterback for part or all of four games and went 3-1, dropping only a heartbreaker to Arizona State, but now backup Will Hammond is out because of a season-ending injury. Third-stringer Mitch Griffis was excellent against Oklahoma State last week, but that barely counts. Morton should return Saturday, and he needs to stick in the lineup.
Of course, even with a 100% healthy Morton, the Red Raiders could have their hands full this weekend, as Kansas State is one of the country’s hottest teams. The defense has been solid, but the most improvement has come from the offense — quarterback Avery Johnson, specifically.
Avery Johnson, first four games: 48.0 Total QBR, 60.6% completion rate, 11.1 yards per completion; 21.5 non-sack rushing yards per game
Johnson, last four games: 80.5 Total QBR, 65.5% completion rate, 12.7 yards per completion; 53.0 non-sack rushing yards per game
Johnson is using his legs more, and it’s helping the run and passing games as star running back Dylan Edwards remains out. Tech, however, has by far the best defense the Wildcats have faced this season. Losing tackle Skyler Gill-Howard to injury hurt, but linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and edge rusher David Bailey are playing like All-Americans, and the secondary is infinitely better than it was last year. Tech is favored for a reason, but this is the worst time to play K-State.
SMU is still 3-1 in conference play. An upset in potentially rainy conditions would keep the Mustangs in the ACC title hunt. But that would require a level of quality they haven’t consistently shown this year.
BC is coming off of its first decent performance in nearly two months — a competitive loss to Louisville — but the Notre Dame defense has allowed just 12.8 points per game over its past four contests (despite playing two teams in the offensive SP+ top 10). And if running back Jeremiyah Love’s 200-yard game against USC is any indication, we might see a Heisman push from him in November. The Irish should romp.
Here’s where the real action is in Week 10. In addition to Texas-Vandy, we get two Tier 4 semi-elimination games, plus a Utah-Cincy game that will help to determine the hierarchy in the Big 12 race.
Last season, former Oklahoma quarterback Josh Heupel and his Tennessee Volunteers welcomed the Sooners to the SEC with a 25-15 defeat. This season, he’ll have a chance to all but eliminate the Sooners from the CFP race. And as with last week’s Auburn-Arkansas game, these teams are playing different sports. Oklahoma’s SEC games have averaged 40.8 total points, and Tennessee’s have averaged 74.4. The Vols haven’t allowed fewer than 31 points in league play, and the Sooners haven’t topped 26.
OU’s defense is awesome, but it’s noteworthy that the Sooners have played only one top-40 offense (per SP+) and gave up 431 yards and 34 points to Ole Miss. Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss punished the Sooners with his legs in a way that UT’s Joey Aguilar probably won’t, but Aguilar avoids sacks and boasts two big-play receivers in Chris Brazzell II and Mike Matthews.
Utah evidently responds well to losses. When the Utes fell to Texas Tech in Week 4, they turned around and walloped West Virginia and Arizona State by a combined 90-24. After they dropped a close one to BYU, they trounced Colorado 53-7 with their backup quarterback.
Of course, to respond well to a loss, you must lose first, and Utah can’t afford to do that again. But knowing backup quarterback Byrd Ficklin is capable of running the show like he did last week is nice, even if he went just 10-for-22 passing. Starter Devon Dampier is expected to return, which would be good because he’s a more efficient (albeit less explosive) passer; tackle Dontay Corleone, end Jalen Hunt and Cincinnati defend the run far better than the pass.
SP+ and these playoff tiers suggest unbeaten BYU and one-loss Texas Tech are atop the Big 12 favorites list; the winner of this one will be No. 3 and awaiting a chance to move up.
No, these two teams are not likely to reach the CFP — they’re each near the bottom of Tier 4 — but this one should still be enjoyable. The team of the 1990s is hosting the team of the 2000s in a fun helmet game, and four of five games between Nebraska’s Matt Rhule and USC’s Lincoln Riley have been decided by one score (all won by Riley).
Nebraska’s defense allows only 4.6 yards per dropback (ninth nationally), while USC’s offense averages 9.5 (third). Jayden Maiava completed only 22 of 42 passes against Notre Dame with two picks, and NU has a chance to win this matchup, but even with a couple of injured running backs and linemen, USC runs the ball well. The Huskers’ run defense is suspect.
Nebraska’s offense has been hard to figure out all season. The Huskers rank 15th in success rate, and Dylan Raiola is completing 73% of his passes, but iffy explosiveness and poor red zone operation have held them back. USC doesn’t produce good efficiency or explosiveness numbers on defense, but the Trojans survive with red zone stops and turnovers.
Virginia has won its past four games by a combined 14 points, three in overtime. We know how these runs tend to end — rudely and suddenly — but with a combination of an efficient run game and strong pass rush, the Cavaliers could handle a Cal team with a poor run defense and poor pass protection. If Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has time to throw, however, the Golden Bears could end the streak.
Current line: Louisville -10.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 15.3 | FPI projection: Louisville by 6.4
Since losing to Texas Tech, Houston has overachieved against SP+ projections for three straight games. The Cougars are defending the run and rushing the passer well; WVU can’t run the ball or protect the passer. Willie Fritz has engineered a fantastic second-year turnaround, and November will tell us if his Coogs can threaten for the Big 12 title.