Mike ClayOct 30, 2025, 07:42 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on X
Field Yates lays out his concerns with Jacory Croskey-Merritt (1:51)Field Yates details the downside of Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s fantasy prospects after a third straight dud for fantasy managers. (1:51)
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
CHI-CIN | MIN-DET | CAR-GB | DEN-HOU | ATL-NE | SF-NYG IND-PIT | LAC-TEN | NO-LAR | JAX-LV | KC-BUF | SEA-WAS | ARI-DAL
Fantasy scoop: The Bengals remain committed to a backfield committee, and that was on display on Sunday when Chase Brown handled 12 carries and three targets on 31 snaps, compared to nine carries and one target on 25 snaps for Samaje Perine. Though he’s playing a lesser role than he did out of the gate, Brown’s stock is on the rise, as he has now delivered 100-plus scrimmage yards in consecutive games, including Sunday’s two-TD, 25.5-point showing.
Brown’s improved play in the Joe Flacco-led offense is enough to get him in the RB2 mix this week. Plus, Chicago has allowed eight TDs, 5.2 yards per carry and a league-high 93% catch rate to RBs. However, there’s still some risk here, as he has cleared 13.1 fantasy points only once this season. Perine is also fresh off a big game (100 yards and one TD), but he is yet to clear 10 touches in a game. He remains best left on benches.
Week 9 presents a tough matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed the fewest yards and fourth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Especially with Minnesota a substantial underdog, Mason is way off the fantasy radar, whereas Jones is a low-ceiling flex.
During that span, Tracy played 67% of the snaps and handled 13.2 carries and 3.5 targets per game. He reached 65 yards in nine of the 11 games and averaged 12.2 fantasy PPG, which ranked 23rd among RBs. Tracy is playing in a better offense this time around, which puts him on the RB2 radar, especially this week against a struggling 49ers defense that is allowing 26.5 fantasy PPG to RBs over its past five games.
Lineup locks: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren
Shadow Report: We’re also upgrading Colts receivers against a Steelers defense that looks good on paper, but that has allowed the most catches and yards to receivers this season. Pittsburgh has surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to the position on the season, including the most over the past four weeks. Pittman gets a boost, whereas Josh Downs and Alec Pierce are deep-league sleepers.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Jaguars receivers against a Raiders defense that has allowed the fourth-most catches and fantasy points to receivers, as well as the seventh-most yardage and nine TDs. Thomas should remain locked in lineups, whereas aforementioned Hunter also makes for a viable starter.
Fantasy scoop: Though he remains the lead back in New Orleans, especially with Kendre Miller done for the season, Alvin Kamara is tough to justify as a lineup lock right now. Working in the Saints’ struggling offense, Kamara hasn’t reached 13.0 fantasy points in any game since he delivered a season-high 16.0 points in Week 2 and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since the season opener.
Kamara hasn’t done much as a rusher as of late (under 32 yards in four straight) and he’s no longer a major factor in the passing game. His 11% target share is nearly half his career rate of 20% and he has been held under 30 yards in seven of eight games. The Rams have allowed only one RB touchdown this season, and only Christian McCaffrey has scored more than 14.6 points against them, leaving Kamara as no more than a back-end RB2.
Shakir already has three TDs this season, although that pace may not be sustainable considering his expected TD total (1.1) and just one end zone target. Nonetheless, Shakir has reemerged as Allen’s top target, which is enough to position him as a WR3, even in a tough matchup against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards to receivers this season.
Fantasy scoop: It’s just not happening for Jacory Croskey-Merritt. The rookie running back has taken on lead-back duties in Washington, but he has still managed to fall short of 6.0 fantasy points in three consecutive games. We did get a glance of his upside in Week 5 (150 yards, 2 TDs and 27.0 fantasy points), but he has been limited to a total of 125 yards, 0 TDs and 12.5 points over the past three weeks.
Week 9 presents a very tough matchup for Croskey-Merritt, as Seattle has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards, a league-low 3.0 yards per carry and only two rushing TDs to backs. Seattle has allowed the most catches to backs, but that doesn’t help Croskey-Merritt, who has yet to see more than two targets in a game and has a total of 6 receiving yards on four targets over the past three weeks. “Bill” is no more than a flex option and is best left on benches.
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson
Shadow Report: Upgrade Arizona’s wide receivers against a Dallas defense that has allowed the most touchdowns (15) and fantasy points to the position this season. Dallas is dead last in defensive EPA against the pass and is allowing a league-high 9.9 yards per target to receivers. The damage includes three TDs and 51.4 points allowed to Denver’s receivers last week. With Trevon Diggs on IR, Dallas remains shorthanded in the secondary, which is good news for Harrison & Co.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
Shadow Report: Expect DJ Turner to shadow Odunze this week. Turner has emerged as the Bengals’ top corner, having traveled with Travis Hunter (Hunter scored 5.2 fantasy points in the game), Justin Jefferson (12.5), Courtland Sutton (19.1), Jameson Williams (1.9), Romeo Doubs (10.5) and DK Metcalf (8.0). Those receivers averaged 9.5 fantasy PPG. Turner has clearly done a nice job, with seven of the top eight WR performances against the Bengals coming from players he didn’t shadow. Odunze can be downgraded slightly, whereas the team’s secondary targets can be upgraded (the Bengals have allowed the fourth-most passing yards and TDs this season).
Fantasy scoop: Aaron Jones returned from IR last week and immediately retook lead back duties in Minnesota. Jones played 53% of the snaps and handled five carries and four targets in what was a very low-volume game for the Vikings offense (47 snaps). Jordan Mason, meanwhile, was limited to just four carries and one target on 16 snaps. This figures to remain a full-on committee, with Mason as the lead ball carrier and goal-line option and Jones not far behind in carries and the featured passing-game back.
Fantasy scoop: Jordan Love put up 28.3 fantasy points on Sunday, his most since he delivered a career-high 28.4 in Week 17 of the 2023 season. Love now has two top-5 fantasy outings this season, though they represent his only finishes better than 11th and he has finished 16th or lower four times. Love is playing well, but his passing output has been all over the map and, while he’s adding more as a rusher than he did in 2024, he has still provided only 109 yards and zero TDs with his legs. Love remains a solid QB2 and is a streaming option this week against a Carolina defense that has allowed 22-plus fantasy points to QBs in four of its past five games.
Fantasy scoop: Quentin Johnston is eyeing a rebound following an ugly Week 8 showing in which he was held without a single target. With Los Angeles working in rookie Tre’ Harris more often (mainly as a blocker), Johnston was limited to 53% of the offensive snaps after playing 86% during his first six games. The doughnut is the latest in a string of duds from Johnston, who, after averaging 9.3 targets and 19.9 fantasy points per game during his first four games, has totaled 10 targets and 17.9 points in his past three outings. Johnston remains a candidate for the occasional big play but, with the big dip in usage, he’s much riskier than he was out of the gate and is no longer a lineup lock.
Shadow Report: The good news for Johnston is that we’re upgrading the Chargers receivers against a Titans defense that is allowing 9.7 yards per target (second highest) and a 75% catch rate (highest) to receivers this season. Tennessee is already shorthanded at corner with L’Jarius Sneed on IR and having traded primary slot man Roger McCreary to the Rams on Monday. McConkey, Allen and Johnston are set to battle with Jalyn Armour-Davis, Darrell Baker Jr. and a to-be-determined replacement in the slot. This calls for a big boost in value for the Chargers pass game.