How far do the two-loss Canes fall after their loss at SMU, and how high can two-loss Notre Dame rise? Can Texas Tech make its debut in the CFP top 25? Was Vandy’s moment in the field fleeting after its loss to Texas?
Here’s a prediction of what the selection committee will do on Tuesday night when it reveals its first of six rankings (8 p.m. ET/ESPN) — the season’s first true baseline of the playoff pecking order.
Why they could be lower: Indiana has a better win — by double digits at Oregon — and is statistically comparable. The Hoosiers are No. 2 in total efficiency and ranked in the top six in both offensive and defensive efficiencies entering Week 10. The committee also compares common opponents, and the Hoosiers had a historically large margin of victory against Illinois, although Ohio State also won with ease.
Need to know: The Buckeyes are trending toward the No. 1 seed on Selection Day if they win the Big Ten, and that means they would earn a first-round bye and play the winner of the No. 8 vs. No. 9 first-round game. Ohio State entered Saturday with the best chance in the country to reach the playoff (95.7%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Need to know: If the Hoosiers run the table and play for the Big Ten championship, they should be a CFP lock. Even if they lose in the title game, the committee will likely keep them in contention for a top-four finish and first-round bye.
Toughest remaining game: There isn’t one. Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue each have at least five losses, and the Hoosiers have at least a 77% chance to win each of those games.
Why they could be lower: Some committee members could continue to penalize Alabama for its season-opening loss to Florida State, which looks worse each week. Plus, the Aggies haven’t lost and are No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. The Sooners will likely be the last CFP top 25 team Alabama faces during the regular season.
Why they could be higher: The Aggies are undefeated and No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and Alabama lost to a struggling Florida State team.
Need to know: The Aggies and Tide don’t play each other during the regular season but are the most likely matchup in the SEC championship game, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas A&M also doesn’t play Georgia during the regular season.
Why they could be lower: It would be difficult for the committee to justify dropping Georgia below Ole Miss, which it beat, as long as their records are comparable. If there is a knock on the Bulldogs, though, it has been the defense, which was No. 36 in efficiency entering Saturday.
Need to know: Georgia entered Saturday with the third-best chance to reach the SEC championship game behind Alabama and Texas A&M, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns beat Vanderbilt on Saturday and have now won four straight games to keep their playoff hopes alive. They’ll have a bye week to prepare for the trip to Athens.
Why they could be lower: BYU is undefeated and entered Week 10 ranked No. 9 in total efficiency; Ole Miss was No. 21. BYU was also No. 5 in strength of record, a slight edge over No. 7 Ole Miss.
Why they could be lower: The committee will discuss an FCS win against Portland State, and three wins against teams with losing records — Stanford, Colorado and West Virginia.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. BYU has a week to prepare, but the Red Raiders are coming off a road win at Kansas State.
Why they could be higher: With the exception of the double-overtime win at Penn State, Oregon has won in convincing fashion all season. The Ducks entered Saturday ranked No. 7 in scoring defense (13.5 points per game) and No. 6 in points per game (41.25). The Ducks also have one of the best losses in the country, as it could be to the committee’s No. 2 team, Indiana.
Need to know: Oregon has more chances to impress the selection committee in November, with games against Iowa, USC and at Washington looming — all teams with winning records and potentially ranked in the CFP top 25. The committee doesn’t project ahead, though, and Oregon had a Week 10 bye, so this is the résumé it will be judged by on Tuesday.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The 6-2 Huskies have lost only to Ohio State and on the road against Michigan.
Why they could be lower: The brutal nonconference lineup against FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State doesn’t include any teams with winning records. The Red Raiders entered Saturday No. 14 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and No. 60 in strength of schedule.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. The Cougars are the only remaining opponent with a winning record, as Texas Tech ends the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
Why they could be lower: There could be committee members who still believe strongly that Miami’s head-to-head win should keep the Canes ranked above the Irish while their records remain comparable.
Need to know: Notre Dame has at least a 75% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. If there’s a trap game remaining, this is it, as Pitt is an ACC team that has won five straight games. The Panthers also have a bye week to prepare for this game.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Texas would be bumped out to make room for the ACC champion, which is now projected to be Virginia, which is ranked outside of the committee’s projected top 12. Because both the ACC champion and the Group of 5 champion are outside of the top 12, the teams ranked No. 11 and No. 12 would both get bumped out.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Texas A&M. It’s certainly not going to be easy to win at Georgia on Nov. 15, but the Longhorns will have a bye week to prepare for it. A top-four rival on a Friday night in the regular-season finale will be the second-best opponent Texas faces all season, the lone exception being its season opener against Ohio State.
Why they could be higher: The win at Tennessee was significant, giving the Sooners a key SEC road win against a ranked opponent. The committee would also consider the hand injury to John Mateer in the Texas game, as he made his return 17 days after having hand surgery and threw three interceptions. The question is if it would be enough of a factor along with the Sooners’ résumé to look past the head-to-head result.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Oklahoma would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — Memphis as the projected American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners have a bye week to prepare for it but will be in a must-win situation in Tuscaloosa.
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There were some Week 10 surprises, but not at the top, where defending national champion Ohio State should start the first College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday right where it left off last season — at No. 1. Although there could be some debate over the top spot when the 12 members of this year’s group vote on teams for their first official top 25 ranking of the season, the bigger discussion will likely revolve around one-loss Alabama and undefeated Texas A&M for the No. 3 and No. 4 spots.
Why they could be here: Ohio State has been one of the most consistently complete teams, and that season-opening win against Texas will continue to boost the Buckeyes. The Longhorns’ win against Vanderbilt on Saturday helped both their playoff hopes and Ohio State’s résumé. Ohio State also has road wins against Washington and Illinois, two of the Big Ten’s better teams. Ohio State hasn’t allowed a team more than 16 points this season. The Buckeyes entered Saturday leading the nation in total efficiency and ranked in the top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Saturday’s lopsided win against a Penn State team that remains winless in conference play won’t wow anyone in the room, but it will continue to enhance the Buckeyes’ record strength.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers earned their third road win of the season on Saturday at Maryland, which is now a four-loss team. Indiana has been one of the most dominant teams in the country, regardless of opponent, ranking No. 2 in ESPN’s game control metric — second only to Ohio State. Indiana’s nonconference lineup, though, doesn’t include an opponent as impressive as Texas. The Hoosiers beat Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State — the latter being a struggling FCS team. IU and Ohio State are very evenly matched statistically, but Ohio State entered Saturday with the best defense in the country, holding opponents to 6.88 points per game.
Why they could be higher: Indiana still owns one of the best wins in the country, beating Oregon 30-20 on Oct. 11 — and that remains a better win than Ohio State’s win against Texas in part because it was on the road, but also because the committee will likely have Oregon ranked ahead of Texas on Tuesday. The Hoosiers entered Week 10 ranked No. 2 and with a slight edge over the No. 3 Buckeyes in ESPN’s strength of record metric. The committee also compares common opponents, and IU dominated Illinois 63-10, whereas Ohio State won 34-16. The committee, though, doesn’t incentivize running up the score, and any margin greater than three touchdowns or so isn’t earning any bonus points in the room.
Why they could be here: If Georgia is a top-five team on Tuesday night — and Notre Dame is behind it — Alabama’s best win would trump Texas A&M’s top win against the Irish. Both were close games on the road. The bigger difference is that the Tide also earned wins against Vanderbilt, Mizzou and Tennessee, which should all be CFP top 25 teams on Tuesday night. Alabama has four consecutive wins — from late September to mid-October — against teams the committee holds in high regard, including two on the road. Alabama has been a slightly better defensive team against more elite competition, ranking No. 15 in defensive efficiency, while the Aggies are No. 18. Overall, Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in total efficiency, another small edge over No. 10 Texas A&M.