Why fantasy managers should trust Justin Herbert to shine in Week 10 (1:14)Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down why he thinks fantasy managers should put their trust in Justin Herbert in Week 10. (1:14)
Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it’s unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and the ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Others to like: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (versus Pittsburgh Steelers); Jaxson Dart, Giants (at Bears).
Others to like: J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos (versus Las Vegas Raiders, “Thursday Night Football”); D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, Bears (versus Giants).
Others to like: Ladd McConkey, Chargers (versus Steelers); Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens (at Minnesota Vikings).
Matchup to avoid: Tyler Warren, Colts (versus Falcons). He’s one of the league’s best and most involved tight ends, making him a near impossibility to bench, but recognize the downside surrounding this particular matchup. The Falcons are the only team to have not seen a tight end score as many as 10 points against them, and for the season they have the lowest fantasy points per game allowed (5.3) and adjusted FPA (minus-5.4) against the position.
The matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon season totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a more fair approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Matchups highlight: Jaylen Warren, Steelers (at Chargers). After Kenneth Gainwell’s surprising receiving contributions during the season’s opening month cast some doubt upon Warren’s fantasy potential, Warren has since reestablished that he’s plenty capable. In the Steelers’ past four games, he has run 63 routes to Gainwell’s 53 and has nearly as much receiving production (15.1 fantasy points, while Gainwell has 17.4). That dual-threat ability suits him well in games with potentially negative game script. But in this matchup, Warren aligns brilliantly when running the football. The Chargers, after all, are the only team in football to have had running backs average more than one fantasy point per carry the past five weeks (1.07).
Matchup to avoid: Kimani Vidal, Chargers (versus Steelers). One area in which the Steelers have consistently succeeded defensively this season — their performance last week was more aberration than the norm — is in containing running backs. Their minus-2.6 adjusted FPA for the season is eighth best, 0.55 points allowed per run seventh best, and they’re one of four teams to have not surrendered a 20 fantasy-point performance to an individual running back. Vidal has had two strong and two forgettable games as Omarion Hampton’s fill-in, and he’ll be playing his first full game without Joe Alt, lost for the season because of an ankle injury.
Matchups highlight: Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants (at Bears). He has stepped up admirably as the Giants’ de facto No. 1 wide receiver following Malik Nabers’ season-ending knee injury, posting a team-leading 26.8% target share while averaging 13.3 fantasy points the past five weeks, but more importantly when examining this matchup, he has been one of the league’s most productive slot receivers during that time. Of Robinson’s fantasy production, 77% has come out of the slot. The opposing Bears, meanwhile, have been one of the worst defenses against slot receivers, surrendering an average of 22.0 points, while seeing Chris Olave (17.5 of 26.8 points, Week 7), Zay Flowers (7.6 of 14.1, Week 8) and Andrei Iosivas (9.5 of 18.0, Week 9) put up big individual scores against them the past three weeks.
Why fantasy managers should trust Justin Herbert to shine in Week 10 (1:14)Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down why he thinks fantasy managers should put their trust in Justin Herbert in Week 10. (1:14)
Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down why he thinks fantasy managers should put their trust in Justin Herbert in Week 10. (1:14)
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?