Jay BilasNov 5, 2025, 08:45 AM ETClose College basketball analyst for ESPN and ESPN Insider Played and coached at Duke Practicing attorney
The Bilastrator doesn’t like to brag. Yet, by now, as a conscious being on this planet, you know that The Bilas Index is the preeminent, reliable and most universally respected indicator and compilation of basketball knowledge and judgment known to humankind. As such, it serves as much more than a guide or a road map to this men’s college basketball season — it is a pinpoint GPS for the year.
To be clear, providing such context to these picks is not bragging. It is simply a recitation of unimpeachable fact. Last season, The Bilastrator dominated the NCAA tournament prediction field, as per usual. After taking intense criticism from the uninformed on Selection Sunday, The Bilastrator correctly predicted the four Final Four teams, the two title game participants and the national champion. In addition, The Bilastrator predicted seven of the Elite Eight teams. You’re welcome, America.
Of course, it is too early to prognosticate forward to the 2026 NCAA tournament. But in the meantime, The Bilas Index will provide you with a reliable guide to the season, with periodic updates as things progress. Again, you’re welcome.
Last season’s national champion returns the nation’s best and toughest forecourts in the country. The key to repeat will be the play of Florida’s guards. Gone are Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard and Alijah Martin, last season’s best backcourt. Coming in are Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee from Arkansas and Princeton, respectively. If those two can provide a reasonable facsimile of last season’s backcourt — especially Fland becoming this season’s Clayton — Florida will challenge again.
Petrovic. Stojakovic. Ivisic. Mirkovic. The Illinois roster might read like a FIBA World Cup team, but it will also translate to being a Big Ten contender. The Illini have size, shooting, skill and depth. And Brad Underwood — also known as “Bradimir” — has leaned into the international flavor of his roster. Watch for former Stanford and Cal wing Andrej Stojakovic to be a focal point. Stojakovic is an excellent shooter who can really pass.
Ryan Kalkbrenner was a mainstay for Greg McDermott’s squads in the past four years, but he seems to have done a decent job retooling. Two transfers from Iowa, Josh Dix and Owen Freeman, join the Bluejays, and both seem to be good fits — Freeman will be tasked with replacing Kalkbrenner after he recovers from knee surgery, and Dix, who shot better than 42% from 3 the past two seasons, is a perfect fit on McDermott’s trey-happy offense.
Every single Baylor player from 2024-25 is gone, thanks either to graduation or the transfer portal, but coach Scott Drew has showed plenty that he’s good enough to regroup. Bringing in Tounde Yessoufou — No. 9 in the SC Next 100 — was the biggest coup. Yessoufou is an elite offensive player with a decent midrange game. In a year crowded with freshman talent, he should be a draft lottery pick.
Last year, All-American John Tonje ran the show, but sophomore John Blackwell grew into his role behind him, averaging 15.8 points and 5.1 rebounds (both big jumps from his freshman season). With Tonje gone, Blackwell will have even more room to shine in his junior season, particularly alongside talented transfer Nick Boyd (13.4 PPG at San Diego State last season) and returner Nolan Winter, who neared 10 points per game in 2024-25.
A 24-win team last season, Ole Miss will have a ton of holes to fill this season, but returning forward Malik Dia should be a bright spot. He averaged 10.8 points last season, and showed off in an 18-point, 8-rebound performance against Iowa State in the NCAA tournament round of 32. He could be a contender for All-SEC honors if he keeps improving on his shooting, which got better through SEC play.
Tom Izzo’s Spartans will have to contend with a crowded Big Ten that could send double-digit teams dancing, finishing ahead of only Wisconsin among the six conference programs that made the preseason AP Top 25. The Spartans return four rotation players — Coen Carr (8.1 PPG), Jaxon Kohler (7.8 PPG), Jeremy Fears Jr. (7.2 PPG) and Carson Cooper (5.0 PPG) — from a team that won 30 games and a regular-season conference title.
Steven Pearl barely escaped his coaching debut with a 95-90 win over … (checks notes) … Bethune-Cookman, which forced overtime in Monday’s season opener. The Tigers do have a very talented roster anchored by Tahaad Pettiford, but he is the only returning player from last season’s Final Four squad. Steven might have his work cut out for him in succeeding his father, Bruce.
The Tar Heels’ inclusion in last season’s NCAA tournament caused an uproar that is still hanging over them, earning their lowest ranking (No. 25) in the preseason AP Top 25 since 2005. Hubert Davis has a lot to prove this season, but he’ll have one of the top recruits — Caleb Wilson, who debuted with 22 points in Monday’s win over Central Arkansas — to help him do it.
Buzz Williams has won NCAA tournament games at all three programs he has led, taking Texas A&M dancing in each of his final three seasons before departing for Maryland. A few players followed him, including Pharrel Payne, who averaged 10.4 points last season and had a game-high 21 points to go with 6 rebounds and 2 assists in the Terrapins’ season-opening win over Coppin State.
Will Wade’s revamped Wolfpack wasted no time making a splash with 114 points in Monday’s season-opening win over North Carolina Central, with seven players finishing in double-figure scoring — not a typo! After winning only 12 games last season, Wade takes over in Raleigh with a roster infused with transfer talent led by Darrion Williams (15.1 PPG at Texas Tech in 2024-25).
The Commodores are coming off their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2016-17 and a 20-win season in a loaded SEC. Can they make it again? That could depend on how much returning players such as Tyler Nickel (10.4 PPG last season) continue to develop alongside transfers such as AK Okereke (13.9 PPG at Cornell last season).
The Bulldogs lost a lot of talent to the portal and graduation from a roster that won 21 games and made the NCAA tournament last season, but they return their leading scorer Josh Hubbard, who averaged 18.9 points and 3.1 assists in 2024-25.
Potentially good news for an Aggies team that has gone dancing each of the past three seasons: New head coach Bucky McMillan took his Samford Bulldogs to their first NCAA tournament in more than 20 years in 2024. And he has a roster filled with interesting transfer talent, including Pop Isaacs (16.3 PPG in eight games at Creighton) and Jacari Lane (17.3 PPG at North Alabama).
Texas had a tough opening opponent in Duke, but expectations will rise as Sean Miller’s first season in Austin unfolds — he has won at least 20 games in 15 of his 20 seasons of coaching. And though last season’s leading scorers (Tre Johnson and Arthur Kaluma) are gone, the Longhorns do return Jordan Pope (11.0 PPG in 2024-25) and Tramon Mark (10.6).
The Tigers have made the NCAA tournament in two of Dennis Gates’ first three seasons in Columbia. They lost two of their top three leading scorers from a 22-win team, but return Mark Mitchell (13.9 PPG), and have already seen returns on transfers Shawn Phillips Jr. (16 points) and Jayden Stone (13) in Monday’s opening win over Howard.
The Hoosiers are hoping Darian DeVries can return them to March relevance. The program has only two NCAA tournament wins over the past nine seasons — and one was during the First Four in 2022. With two-time Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year Tucker DeVries following his father to Bloomington, Indiana could be a dangerous bubble team.
The Bulldogs lost their top contributors from last season with Asa Newell on to the NBA and Silas Demary Jr. transferring to UConn, but they return Blue Cain (9.6 PPG), who tied Cal transfer Jeremiah Wilkinson with a team-high 15 points in Monday’s season-opening win over Bellarmine. BYU transfer Kanon Catchings (7.2 PPG) also makes a team that won 20 games a season ago interesting.
The Golden Eagles turned over their top three contributors from last season but return their last double-figure scorer Chase Ross (10.5 PPG in 2024-25), who led Marquette with 15 points in Monday’s season-opening win. Shaka Smart also brought in a trio of SC Next 100 recruits led by Nigel James Jr. (No. 67).
The Bearcats fell short of high expectations as a preseason AP Top 25 team last season, finishing 7-13 in Big 12 play to miss the NCAA tournament altogether. Wes Miller could be coaching to keep his seat, but has another talented roster with incoming freshmen and transfers, three of whom each scored 18 points in Monday’s opener: Shon Abaev (No. 26 recruit in SC Next 100), Baba Miller (Florida Atlantic) and Moustapha Thiam (UCF).
The Tigers are looking to erase a bad first-round exit — 13 points in the first half?! — with a full rebuild. It’s not as if they had a choice: They lost all five starters, and are now a roster cobbled together with three-star recruits and mostly mid-major transfers. Can they return to the second weekend of the tournament after making an Elite Eight run two seasons ago? It will be tough, but if anyone knows how to pull off a miracle, it’s perennial hot-seat coach Brad Brownell.
Sure, Brian Dutcher and Miles Byrd — due for another step up after breaking out last season — are still there, in SDSU’s final year in the Mountain West. The Aztecs are hungry for another deep tournament run after their first Final Four appearance in 2023, and will look to boost their résumé via facing down powerhouses in the Players Era festival (Michigan, Oregon) as well as Arizona before conference play begins.
The incredibly efficient Bruce Thornton (50.1% shooting, 42.4% on 3s) is sticking around Columbus for another season, giving Jake Diebler his best chance to return the Buckeyes to the NCAA tournament in his second full season as head coach. Thornton will have John Mobley Jr., another efficient player (13.0 PPG, 39% on 3s), and breakout junior forward Devin Royal (26 points vs. Michigan last season) around him. A tough stretch for Ohio State looks closer to ending.