Overall Record 25-25
Week 10 Picks update: 1-4
Vandy +2.5 – L
Miami -11.5 – L
Miss St / Arkansas Over 67.5 – W
Kansas State +7.5 – L
Cincinnati +10.5 – L
What goes up, must come down. Pretty brutal week for my picks after making up some ground last week. There is nothing left to do but move forward and find some wins in week 11. Let’s see what is on tap for this slate and get back into the green. Locked in.
Tulane at Memphis (-5.5) Friday 9 PM EST
A huge matchup in the quest for the G5 playoff spot awaits us in this one. A couple weeks ago it looked like this game would be a deciding factor on getting into the playoffs, but things are a little murkier after Tulane imploded against a bad UTSA team last week. Memphis hasn’t been unblemished either after losing a few weeks ago to a coachless UAB team, but for now Memphis controls their own destiny to get to the promised land. Tulane has looked pretty solid against teams on their level, and I am still dumbfounded how they lost last week. Maybe the coach not being focused played a role, or maybe they simply got handled. Either way, I think this Tulane team has a lot of talent and will not go down without a fight. I have watched a few of Memphis’ games, and they are a good team but they aren’t amazing. Memphis is 8-1 ATS this year, which is an impressive mark, but that won’t help them in this matchup. Tulane keeps it close and I wouldn’t be shocked if they pull off the upset. Green Wave +5.5.
7BYU at 8Texas Tech (-10.5)
The biggest match up to date in the Big 12 and the site of College Gameday – guess the SEC matchups weren’t good enough for them this week. BYU is still undefeated! I keep fading them and they keep making me pay. I have also been fading Tech a bit, with a little better results but not much overall. These are two really good teams but someone has to win. 10.5 is a lot of points for BYU who are 6-2 ATS this year and still continually doubted by Vegas. I think they continue to make a statement and this game ends up being a lot closer than projected. Give me the Cougars to cover. BYU +10.5.
SMU at Boston College (O/U 55.5)
SMU is coming off a massive win against top 10 Miami and looked more like the playoff team we all saw last season. Their defense came to play and stifled a Miami team that had a lot to play for. Boston College on the other hand has had a really tough season and have only found one win so far. Their defense isn’t great and they have been giving up a lot of points while their offense hasn’t been able to do much. That is a recipe for a disastrous season. I think SMU may have a slight hangover after their emotional win against Miami, and I wouldn’t expect BC to put up much of a fight with absolutely nothing to play for. SMU should cruise in this one and BC should roll over after going down early. Under 55.5 is the play.
Iowa State at TCU (-6.5)
Iowa State started 5-0 and has not been able to find a win anywhere since. They started the season looking like the team to beat in the Big 12 and now they are just hoping to make a bowl game. Injuries and some unlucky bounces have doomed this team, and sometimes that is just how it goes. TCU is technically still alive in the Big 12, but I wouldn’t say they have been the most impressive team this year. They returned a lot of talent but have not been able to win enough “big” games to be at the top of this conference. The Big 12 is probably the most week to week conference there is, and that is why it is so difficult to predict what version of these teams will show up each Saturday. My read on this one is that the Cyclones will be so desperate for a win that they will themselves to stay in this game. We have seen TCU kill themselves in their two losses this year and they have problems putting teams away after they take a lead. I think this is a perfect spot for Iowa State to finally get the monkey off their back and get a win. With that said, 6.5 points is a gift that you should take to the bank. ISU +6.5.
Cal at 15Louisville (-20.5)
An interesting matchup in this one as Cal heads across the country to take on the 7-1 Louisville Cardinals. Cal is not a great football team, but I am not sure the spread of 20+ points is justified in this one. Louisville is a solid squad, but they have not won any of their ACC games by more than 20. Their largest conference win was against 1-8 Boston College and they only beat them by 14. Cal on the flip side has only lost one conference game by 20 points or more and that was a 24 point loss to Duke about a month or so ago. I don’t think I need to say much more – this line is too high and Cal will keep it closer than suggested. Cal +20.5.
Final Picks:
Tulane +5.5
BYU +10.5
SMU / BC Under 55.5
Iowa State +6.5
Cal +20.5
Written By Blake Mire @BlakeMire on X
This is not financial advice, tail or fade at your own risk.