Mike ClayNov 6, 2025, 09:21 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on X
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
ATL-IND | NYG-CHI | BUF-MIA | BAL-MIN | CLE-NYJ | NE-TB NO-CAR | JAX-HOU | ARI-SEA | LAR-SF | DET-WAS | PIT-LAC | PHI-GB
Lineup locks: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, Kyle Pitts Sr.
Fantasy scoop: Pitts a lineup lock? It’s not hard to justify, considering (A) his recent usage (B) two top tight ends on a bye and (C) a terrific Week 10 matchup. Pitts has handled seven-plus targets in three straight games and sits top five among tight ends in routes, target share, targets and catches. He hasn’t seen enough goal line work (one TD and one end zone target), but he’s still 11th at the position in fantasy PPG.
Pitts, who has 13-plus fantasy points in three of his past five outings, will face a Colts defense that sits top five in targets, catches, yards and fantasy points to tight ends. Indianapolis has allowed one TD and 19-plus fantasy points to tight ends in four straight, including 20-plus-point efforts by Oronde Gadsden II and Trey McBride.
Fantasy scoop: In the Giants’ first full game without Cam Skattebo, the duo of Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary formed a near-even backfield committee. Singletary surprisingly led the way, handling eight carries and two targets on 31 snaps (16 routes). Tracy managed five carries and four targets on 25 snaps (14 routes).
Tracy was expected to operate as the lead back (as he did most of last season), but especially after Singletary outplayed him (51 yards to Tracy’s 37), we need to plan as if this will be a near-even split for the time being. Week 10 presents a solid matchup against a Bears defense that is allowing 5.0 yards per carry (fifth highest) to RBs. Both backs are best viewed as flex options, with Tracy the slightly preferred option.
Fantasy scoop: Dalton Kincaid continues to break math, having played just 44% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps and yet to clear six targets in a game, but still sitting eighth in TE fantasy points thanks to four touchdowns. Of course, Kincaid’s production has been a bit boom or bust, as he has scored 14.8-plus fantasy points four times but fewer than 10 three times. Kincaid has reached 100 receiving yards in two of his past three outings, but those games bookended a 1-23-0 receiving line in Week 8.
Fantasy scoop: Mark Andrews scored two touchdowns in Jackson’s return from injury last week. That allowed the veteran tight end a solid 16.6 fantasy points, but the problem is that he was targeted only three times. Andrews now has three or fewer targets in five of eight games and is averaging a lowly 4.1 per game on the season. He has also fallen short of 35 yards in all but one game.
Andrews isn’t the fantasy force he was prior to 2024 and, much like last season, he’s best viewed as an extremely TD-dependent fringe TE1. However, he does have some added appeal this week against a Vikings defense that has allowed 18-plus fantasy points to Oronde Gadsden II and Sam LaPorta over the past two weeks.
Shadow Report: The Jets traded Sauce Gardner on Tuesday, which is notable considering that, with Gardner often shadowing opponents’ top receivers, secondary receivers have thrived against the Jets. In fact, even with Gardner playing well, the Jets have allowed the fourth-highest EPA against the pass.
Jerry Jeudy, who was likely to draw shadow coverage from Gardner had he not been dealt, and Cedric Tillman (if he returns from IR) can now be upgraded in this matchup. Of course, Jeudy has yet to score a touchdown or clear 11.6 fantasy points in a game this season and he was held without a single catch (albeit while shadowed by Christian Gonzalez) in his most-recent game. Even with the better matchup, he’s best left on benches.
Fantasy scoop: With Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined last week, TreVeyon Henderson was the Patriots’ lead back. The rookie played 51 snaps (75%), totaling 14 carries and six targets. Terrell Jennings, the only other back to see the field, added 11 carries (one for a TD) and one target on 17 snaps. Henderson played fairly well, posting career highs in touches (18), yards (87) and fantasy points (12.7). Henderson has found the end zone once in nine games but has 75-plus yards in consecutive games.
If Stevenson returns this week, Henderson will revert to no more than a bench option. However, if Stevenson remains out, Henderson will be a viable RB2 against a Bucs defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to RBs, with most of that damage coming in the passing game (a strength for Henderson).
Fantasy scoop: There was a clear changing of the guard in the Carolina backfield on Sunday. After two straight weeks on the short end of a committee, Dowdle took over as the feature back in Week 9, totaling 25 carries and three targets on 40 snaps. Chuba Hubbard, meanwhile, was reduced to five carries and one target on 11 snaps.
Despite facing a tough Packers run defense, Dowdle produced 130 yards and two TDs on 25 carries, adding 11 yards on three targets. Dowdle has scored 28-plus fantasy points in his past three games as Carolina’s lead back. He’s now very much a lineup lock and has a solid Week 10 matchup against a New Orleans defense that has allowed the seventh-most yards to RBs. Hubbard is safe to drop, though he is a fine insurance stash.
Shadow Report: Expect Thomas to draw shadow coverage from Derek Stingley Jr. this week. When these teams met in Week 3, Stingley shadowed Thomas on all five of his perimeter routes prior to leaving injured. Kamari Lassiter then took over and shadowed Thomas on his final 19 perimeter routes. Thomas was held in check, totaling 55 yards on six targets. Stingley has also shadowed Davante Adams (7.2 fantasy points in the game), Mike Evans (10.6) and Courtland Sutton (10.0).
This is a tough assignment, not only for Thomas, but for the entire Jaguars receiver room — including newcomer Jakobi Meyers. Houston has surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points, the lowest catch rate (54%) and only four TDs to the position. Thomas, who has been held to 12.0 or fewer fantasy points in seven of eight games and was targeted only five times last week, is no more than a WR3.
Fantasy scoop: Seattle returned from its Week 8 bye with a bit of a tweak to its running back deployment. Kenneth Walker III played a season-high 54% of the offensive snaps in Week 9 and totaled 11 carries and two targets. That compared favorably to Zach Charbonnet (eight carries and one target on 18 snaps), who had out-snapped Walker in five of their prior six games together this season.
Despite the promotion, Walker was held below 10 fantasy points for the fourth game in a row and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3. Charbonnet, meanwhile, has five TDs in seven games, but he’s averaging 2.9 yards per carry and has cleared 12.4 fantasy points in a game only once. Walker remains the better play of the two, but he’s no more than a fringe RB2.
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: With Jayden Daniels out for the foreseeable future, Marcus Mariota will work as the Commanders’ starting quarterback. The dual-threat quarterback has played over half the snaps in five games since joining Washington and has averaged a healthy 18.7 fantasy PPG in those outings. Mariota threw for multiple touchdowns in three of the games and ran for at least 20 yards in all five (35.6 average).
Shadow Report: The Commanders have allowed the second-most receiving yards, sixth-most fantasy points and 11 TDs (seventh most) to receivers. And that was prior to losing Marshon Lattimore to a torn ACL. Washington’s struggling defense is good news for Detroit’s passing game, and we’re obviously upgrading St. Brown and Jameson Williams against Mike Sainristil, Jonathan Jones and Trey Amos.
Metcalf might not be shadowed this week, but he’s set to face a Los Angeles defense that has allowed just four TDs and the sixth-fewest fantasy points to receivers. Metcalf has been way too dependent on touchdowns (he’s 39th among receivers in targets but seventh in TDs), which makes him a boom/bust fantasy start. He’s a fringe WR2 against the Chargers.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Chargers receivers against a Steelers defense that has allowed the most targets, catches, yards and fantasy points to receivers. Pittsburgh has allowed 50-plus fantasy points to the opposing WR room in three of its past five outings, which includes 55.4 to the Colts in Week 9. McConkey, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston should see a boost in volume and production here in Week 10. All are viable fantasy starters.