play0:37Caleb Williams’ incredible TD run puts Bears up lateCaleb Williams manages to stay inbounds en route to the end zone as the Bears take a late lead vs. the Giants.
play0:24Sheldon Rankins takes Trevor Lawrence fumble to the house to cement Texans winSheldon Rankins recovers the fumble from Trevor Lawrence and takes it to the house to seal the Texans’ 36-29 comeback win over the Jaguars.
Seth WalderCloseSeth WalderESPN AnalyticsSeth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.NFL NationCloseNFL NationNFL Nation is made up of 32 team-specific reporters who cover the NFL year-round across ESPN.com, ESPN television shows, ESPN Radio, ESPN+ and social media platforms. It was established ahead of the 2013 season.Nov 9, 2025, 09:20 PM ET
Jonathan Taylor’s 3rd TD walks it off for Colts in OT (0:25)Jonathan Taylor goes untouched into the end zone to win it for the Colts in overtime. (0:25)
Caleb Williams’ incredible TD run puts Bears up lateCaleb Williams manages to stay inbounds en route to the end zone as the Bears take a late lead vs. the Giants.
Caleb Williams manages to stay inbounds en route to the end zone as the Bears take a late lead vs. the Giants.
Sheldon Rankins takes Trevor Lawrence fumble to the house to cement Texans winSheldon Rankins recovers the fumble from Trevor Lawrence and takes it to the house to seal the Texans’ 36-29 comeback win over the Jaguars.
Sheldon Rankins recovers the fumble from Trevor Lawrence and takes it to the house to seal the Texans’ 36-29 comeback win over the Jaguars.
Tier 2: Super Bowl contenders … if they make the playoffs
Tier 8: Yes, I’m telling you there’s a (slight) chance
Walder ranked the teams in each tier, though the real delineations are from tier to tier. ESPN’s NFL Nation reporters also added a tangible second-half goal for the teams they cover, whether it’s securing a first-round playoff bye or evaluating the future of the team’s QB position. All statistical rankings are through the Sunday late afternoon window, and playoff chances are from the FPI.
Chances to make the playoffs: 96.2% Chances to win the NFC East: 94.3% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 18.9%
The defending Super Bowl champions will win their division again. That much we know. But what seed will that net them in the playoffs? They spent the trade deadline trying to shore up a couple of weaknesses at edge rusher (Jaelan Phillips) and third corner (Michael Carter II), and the offensive line hasn’t been as dominant this season, but this is a roster that could still get red-hot in the playoffs and go all the way again. — Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Secure the top seed in the NFC. The Eagles have a commanding lead in the NFC East but have bigger goals in mind. They’re in range for the No. 1 seed but it’s a tight race, with the top seven teams within a game of each other in the standings. Wins against the Packers and Lions over the next two weeks could give the Eagles some breathing room. — Tim McManus
Chances to make the playoffs: 93.3% Chances to win the NFC West: 50.5% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 20%
It’s easy to forget how fragile the Rams’ Super Bowl aspirations were in the preseason, as quarterback Matthew Stafford was trying to heal in an airstream. Not only has Stafford been healthy, but he’s played well. Wide receiver Puka Nacua is in the midst of an Offensive Player of the Year-type season. And the defense ranks fourth in EPA per play. And after handily beating the 49ers on Sunday, the Rams are virtually locked into at least a postseason berth. — Walder
Chances to make the playoffs: 91% Chances to win the AFC East: 36.9% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 15.8%
Tangible second-half goal: Earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Bills will have to get through several injuries and some offensive and defensive inefficiencies, but getting the top seed is the one thing they haven’t done in the Allen era. Overtaking the Patriots in the AFC East standings comes first (a big matchup awaits in Week 15), but then all attention will be on grabbing the top seed in the conference. — Alaina Getzenberg
Chances to make the playoffs: 89.8% Chances to win the NFC West: 33.7% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 10.5%
Quarterback Sam Darnold arrived in Seattle and proved all the critics — I include myself among them — wrong. Darnold is playing light years ahead of where he was last season in Minnesota, which has the Seahawks third in EPA per dropback. Back-to-back blowouts that flexed the Seahawks’ strengths on both sides of the ball not only cemented them as a near-certain playoff team, but a Super Bowl contender. — Walder
Chances to make the playoffs: 75.3% Chances to win the AFC West: 27% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 16.7%
Tangible second-half goal: An improved pass rush. Entering their bye week, the Chiefs’ biggest weakness appears to be the pass rushers around Chris Jones. The Chiefs’ easiest way to go on a second-half run is to generate more pressure on the quarterback. Edge rushers George Karlaftis, Charles Omenihu and rookie Ashton Gillotte will have to improve the Chiefs’ pass rush win rate, which ranks 21st at 35.6%. — Nate Taylor
Chances to make the playoffs: 78.2% Chances to win the NFC North: 35% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 12.7%
It’s jarring not putting the Lions in the top tier, but their record – and the strength of the NFC North – prevents them from being a postseason lock. The coordinator change questions have been answered — the Lions are ranked fourth in EPA per play on offense and seventh on defense. The loss to the Vikings in Week 9 was a negative, but the Lions should be one of the NFC’s most dangerous playoff teams … assuming they make it. — Walder
Chances to make the playoffs: 80.8% Chances to win the NFC North: 51.9% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 14.8%
Chances to make the playoffs: 56.3% Chances to win the AFC North: 51% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 7.1%
I’m fairly confident the other teams in this tier will make the playoffs. But I’m not as certain on the Ravens after a brutal 1-5 start that included a Week 1 collapse to the Bills, a Lamar Jackson injury and bad defense early on. But we’ve caught a glimpse of the Ravens of old after their bye. Baltimore is fortunate to play in a winnable AFC North. Should the Ravens surge and make the playoffs, I’m not going to doubt their chances once they get in. — Walder
Chances to make the playoffs: 96% Chances to win the AFC South: 86.7% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 21.3%
Chances to make the playoffs: 94.4% Chances to win the AFC East: 63.1% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 8.9%
Tangible second-half goal: Reduce the number of hits and sacks on Maye. The Patriots’ 35 sacks allowed are the second most in the NFL, behind only the Titans (38), and 12 of them came in Weeks 8 and 9. Maye has said some sacks during the recent spike are his fault, as he can do a better job protecting himself by getting rid of the ball. — Mike Reiss
Chances to make the playoffs: 91.6% Chances to win the AFC West: 49.9% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 13%
It’s been a shaky sophomore season for Bo Nix, who is currently ranked 18th in QBR despite the Broncos ranking fourth in pass block win rate. The defense, expected to be elite going into the season, has done its job though: ranking second in EPA per play. Most important, getting eight wins in 10 games to start the season will make it extremely hard for Denver to miss the postseason. — Walder
Chances to make the playoffs: 89.7% Chances to win the NFC South: 87.7% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 8.5%
Quarterback Baker Mayfield’s hot start to the season and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka’s emergence as a serious Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate right away has the Buccaneers 14th in EPA per play despite a rash of injuries and has helped lead them to the top of the NFC South. That should be enough to get Tampa Bay back to the playoffs considering how weak the NFC South is, and the Bucs have a manageable schedule the rest of the way. — Walder
Chances to make the playoffs: 85.8% Chances to win the NFC West: 15.9% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 10.3%
Chances to make the playoffs: 75.6% Chances to win the AFC West: 23.1% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 9.1%
Tangible second-half goal: Improve kickoff and punt return coverage. The Chargers’ special teams have been among the league’s worst, allowing the most kickoff return yards (1,203) and fourth-most punt return yards (198) entering Week 10. This unit used to be a strength, and struggles here could be the difference in how far the Chargers go this season. — Kris Rhim
Chances to make the playoffs: 56.1% Chances to win the AFC North: 43.9% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 4.5%
The Aaron Rodgers experiment is probably going a little better than the Steelers could have reasonably hoped, and they’re in a solid position in the standings even with their defense underperforming to date. Pittsburgh certainly can make the postseason, but it’ll need the defense to kick it up a notch to get there. — Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Play consistent defense. The Steelers have largely been boom-or-bust on defense through the first half of the season. Turnovers have often come in bunches — five in a win against the Patriots, six in beating the Colts — but the defense falters when the takeaways aren’t there. The Steelers went a month between forced turnovers, and though they entered Week 10 tied for third with 27 sacks, they’ve had four games where they recorded two or fewer sacks. — Brooke Pryor
Chances to make the playoffs: 44.1% Chances to win the NFC North: 11.3% Chances to make the Super Bowl: 2.4%
The offense has gotten there. From Week 5 to Week 9, the Bears offense ranked third in EPA per play, fueled by a rushing attack that found its way in the second quarter of the season after struggling early. Caleb Williams’ accuracy numbers improved from abysmal to merely below average — which might be all the Bears need to be threatening. It’s a tough path ahead, but Chicago’s past wins and recent offensive efficiency gives it a solid chance at the postseason.– Walder